【摘要】：隨著新世代的到來,在產(chǎn)品日益多樣化和供大于求的買方市場上,企業(yè)間的競爭愈加激烈。為了提高企業(yè)的競爭力,人力資源是關(guān)鍵,而培養(yǎng)和造就一大批具有開拓精神與創(chuàng)新思維的企業(yè)家尤為重要。近一個(gè)世紀(jì)以來,參與式教學(xué)法(Engaged learning techniques)在培養(yǎng)現(xiàn)代管理人才中發(fā)揮了巨大的作用。管理模擬(Business Simulation)就是參與教學(xué)的一種。管理模擬的設(shè)計(jì)在現(xiàn)今的研究逐漸受到重視,尤其在IT技術(shù)的高速發(fā)展下,許多依靠軟件的模擬設(shè)計(jì)層出不窮。而模擬市場競爭最大的關(guān)鍵點(diǎn)在于模擬市場份額的爭奪之上。 本文系統(tǒng)分析了影響市場份額的因素,例如:品牌、銷售價(jià)格、促銷、廣告、渠道等影響一般市場份額的主要因素;在吸引力理論的基礎(chǔ)上,詳細(xì)分析了MNL模型和MCI模型的界定和估計(jì)并闡述了模型預(yù)測流程;在市場份額模型的基礎(chǔ)上計(jì)算產(chǎn)品銷售價(jià)格和促銷的彈性的方法,以用于分析市場份額受各影響因素的影響程度。 隨后,本文應(yīng)用MCI模型對所收集的六家汽車銷售企業(yè)的產(chǎn)品銷售數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了應(yīng)用分析,結(jié)果表明MCI模型能夠較好的擬合收集到的銷售數(shù)據(jù),并且發(fā)現(xiàn)汽車市場中,品牌對其市場份額有顯著影響,活動(dòng)促銷和折扣促銷的效力較大,而廣告促銷和禮品促銷的影響較小,汽車銷售價(jià)格的影響并不顯著;此外,本文計(jì)算了應(yīng)用分析中各品牌的市場份額對銷售價(jià)格、促銷的彈性,發(fā)現(xiàn)銷售價(jià)格彈性大的品牌其市場份額變化幅度不一定大,這是因?yàn)槠涫袌龇蓊~本身的差異較大所造成的,可見對與市場份額比較小的企業(yè)來說,降價(jià)獲得的利益是有限的;通過以其中某些品牌為例對市場份額進(jìn)行了模擬預(yù)測分析發(fā)現(xiàn)企業(yè)在價(jià)格和促銷策略上的相互配合和調(diào)整有助于提高或者維持市場份額,這種分析方法為管理模擬教學(xué)上,參與小組互動(dòng)的策略模擬結(jié)果,提供了很大的幫助。最后本文探討了市場份額模型在管理模擬之中的兩個(gè)應(yīng)用之處,一為影響因素的權(quán)重設(shè)計(jì),二為管理決策結(jié)果模擬。 本文的研究為探討市場份額及其影響因素做了大量有益工作,有助于管理模擬教學(xué)的擬真與教學(xué)效果,有助于培訓(xùn)參與者的管理決策能力以及察覺市場動(dòng)態(tài)的能力,為管理模擬教學(xué)提供更進(jìn)一步的改善。
[Abstract]:With the arrival of the new generation, the competition among enterprises becomes more and more fierce in the buyer's market where the products are becoming more and more diversified and the supply exceeds demand. In order to improve the competitiveness of enterprises, human resources is the key, and it is particularly important to cultivate and train a large number of entrepreneurs with pioneering spirit and innovative thinking. For nearly a century, participatory teaching method (Engaged learning techniques) has played an important role in the training of modern management talents. Management simulation (Business Simulation) is one kind of participation in teaching. The design of management simulation has been paid more and more attention in recent years, especially with the rapid development of IT technology, many simulation designs relying on software emerge one after another. And the biggest key point of simulated market competition lies in the competition for simulated market share. This paper systematically analyzes the factors that affect the market share, such as brand, sales price, promotion, advertising, channel and so on, which affect the general market share. On the basis of attraction theory, the definition and estimation of MNL model and MCI model are analyzed in detail, and the prediction process of the model is expounded. Based on the market share model, the method of calculating the elasticity of product sales price and promotion is used to analyze the extent to which market share is affected by various factors. Subsequently, the MCI model is used to analyze the product sales data collected from six auto sales enterprises. The results show that the MCI model can fit the collected sales data well, and find out the auto market. The brand has a significant impact on its market share. The effect of activity promotion and discount promotion is greater than that of advertising promotion and gift promotion. The effect of auto sales price is not significant. In addition, this paper calculates the elasticity of the market share of each brand to the sales price and promotion in the application analysis, and finds that the market share of the brand with large elasticity of the sales price does not necessarily change greatly. This is due to the large difference in market share itself, so it can be seen that for enterprises with small market share, the benefits of price reduction are limited; Taking some of these brands as an example, the market share is simulated and predicted. It is found that the mutual coordination and adjustment of the price and promotion strategy can help to improve or maintain the market share. This analysis method is the management simulation teaching. Participating in group interaction strategy simulation results, provide a lot of help. Finally, this paper discusses two applications of market share model in management simulation, one is the weight design of influencing factors, the other is the simulation of management decision results. The research in this paper has done a lot of useful work to explore the market share and its influencing factors, which will help to manage the simulation teaching and the teaching effect, and help to train the participants' ability of management and decision-making and the ability to detect the dynamics of the market. Provide further improvement for management simulation teaching.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號】：F224;F274

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 胡志強(qiáng);撫順聯(lián)通移動(dòng)通信全業(yè)務(wù)品牌發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略研究[D];吉林大學(xué);2012年

2 王媛媛;基于市場份額分析算法的日化市場策略研究[D];華南理工大學(xué);2012年

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本文編號：2432128