本文選題：中國崛起　切入點：大國安全競爭　出處：《清華大學》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：本文試圖解釋的核心困惑是,東南亞國家為何在1997年亞洲金融危機之后普遍采取對沖戰(zhàn)略而非制衡以應對中國崛起帶來的沖擊?研究發(fā)現(xiàn),東南亞國家作為典型的中小國家有著較為強烈的對沖傾向,即希望并行不悖地發(fā)展與鄰近大國的安全關系,以緩解其安全依賴和獨立自主兩個目標之間的內(nèi)在張力。不過,這種對沖傾向能否轉化為政策實踐則受到鄰近大國安全競爭性質(zhì)的顯著影響。具體而言,在大國對抗性競爭時期,東南亞國家?guī)缀鯖]有對沖的戰(zhàn)略空間,追隨特定大國因此成為其普遍選擇;在不存在大國安全競爭的時期,東南亞國家則普遍尋求弱化既有的安全依賴。而在大國包容性競爭時期,東南亞國家普遍具備對沖的戰(zhàn)略空間,奉行對沖戰(zhàn)略因此成為這些國家的普遍趨勢。1997年亞洲金融危機以來,中美兩國之間的安全競爭呈現(xiàn)出典型的包容性特征,東南亞國家因此獲得了較為充裕的對沖戰(zhàn)略空間,對沖戰(zhàn)略隨之成為這些國家的普遍選擇。研究表明,中美包容性競爭主要源于中國崛起進程中面臨著較為突出的安全壓力,這種壓力不僅源于美國的綜合實力優(yōu)勢,更來自于美國的東亞安全保護體系。通過提供安全保護,美國贏得了日本、韓國、澳大利亞、菲律賓、泰國和新加坡等盟友和安全伙伴對其主導地位的認可和支持。為緩解美國安全保護體系的壓力,中國一方面盡力維持中美戰(zhàn)略關系穩(wěn)定,另一方面堅持睦鄰友好政策,深化與東亞國家的全方位合作,從而塑造了中美包容性安全競爭的局面。隨著中國實力的持續(xù)上升和安撫戰(zhàn)略取得進展,2008年金融危機以來,中美包容性競爭態(tài)勢局部有所弱化。一方面,美國強化了其在東亞地區(qū)的安全存在,并隨之促使其部分安全保護伙伴奉行更為對抗性的對華政策。另一方面,中國為緩解壓力在部分安全議題上采取了更為進取的政策。中美包容性競爭的局部弱化使得東南亞國家的對沖戰(zhàn)略空間有所縮小,對沖隨之出現(xiàn)了分化。菲律賓和越南的對沖戰(zhàn)略空間被顯著壓縮,菲律賓甚至轉向制衡戰(zhàn)略;印尼、馬來西亞和新加坡則不得不在中美之間采取更為謹慎地平衡戰(zhàn)略。而此前沒有受到中美安全競爭影響的緬甸、泰國和柬埔寨等國也開始因與一方接近而受到另一方的壓力。不過,在美國實力優(yōu)勢較為突出及其安全保護體系得以延續(xù)的背景下,中美包容性競爭整體轉向?qū)剐愿偁幍目赡苄暂^小。因此,東南亞國家的普遍對沖傾向?qū)⒛軌虻靡匝永m(xù)。為塑造更為有利的地區(qū)安全環(huán)境,中國有必要在東亞主要安全問題上保持總體克制,同時恰當選擇進取時機和對象。
[Abstract]:The central puzzle this paper attempts to explain is why did Southeast Asian countries generally adopt hedging strategies rather than checks and balances to deal with the impact of China's rise after the Asian financial crisis in 1997? The study found that Southeast Asian countries, as typical small and medium-sized countries, have a strong hedging tendency, that is, they want to develop security relations with neighboring powers side by side. In order to alleviate the inherent tension between their security dependence and independence. However, whether this hedging tendency can be translated into policy practice is significantly affected by the nature of security competition in neighbouring powers. During the period of confrontational competition between great powers, Southeast Asian countries had little strategic space to hedge, so it became a common choice for Southeast Asian countries to follow a particular big country; when there was no great power security competition, Southeast Asian countries generally seek to weaken their existing security dependence. In the period of inclusive competition among big countries, Southeast Asian countries generally have the strategic space for hedging. Since the Asian financial crisis in 1997, the security competition between China and the United States has taken on a typical inclusive character, thus giving Southeast Asian countries ample hedging strategy space. As a result, hedging strategies have become a common choice for these countries. Research shows that inclusive competition between China and the United States is mainly due to the prominent security pressures facing China in the process of its rise, not only because of the comprehensive strength advantage of the United States, but also because of the overall strength of the United States. The East Asian security protection system from the United States. By providing security protection, the United States has won over Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, Thailand and Singapore and other allies and security partners recognize and support their leading position. In order to ease the pressure on the US security protection system, China, on the one hand, makes every effort to maintain a stable strategic relationship between China and the United States, on the other hand, it adheres to the policy of good-neighborly friendship. Deepening all-round cooperation with East Asian countries has shaped the situation of inclusive security competition between China and the United States. As China's strength continues to rise and its strategy of appeasing progress, since the financial crisis in 2008, On the one hand, the United States has strengthened its security presence in the East Asia region, and subsequently prompted some of its security protection partners to pursue a more confrontational China policy. China has adopted more aggressive policies on some security issues in order to ease the pressure. The partial weakening of inclusive competition between China and the United States has narrowed the hedging strategy space of Southeast Asian countries. Hedging has become divisive. The Philippines and Vietnam's hedging strategy space has been significantly reduced, and the Philippines has even turned to a counterbalancing strategy; Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore have had to adopt a more cautious balancing strategy between China and the United States. Myanmar, which has not been affected by the security competition between China and the United States, Countries such as Thailand and Cambodia are also beginning to come under pressure from the other for being close to one side. Inclusive competition between China and the United States as a whole is less likely to shift to confrontational competition. As a result, the general hedging trend in Southeast Asian countries will continue. In order to create a more favourable regional security environment, It is necessary for China to exercise general restraint on major security issues in East Asia and to choose the right timing and target.
【學位授予單位】：清華大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：D833
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本文編號：1596488