本文選題：工業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí) + 潛力�。� 參考：《大連理工大學(xué)》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：在勞動(dòng)力成本攀升和日益增強(qiáng)的資源環(huán)境約束下,工業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)成為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵問題�，F(xiàn)有研究主要集中于從全球價(jià)值鏈視角討論產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)的問題,在資源環(huán)境約束視角下的研究?jī)H限于分析能源消耗與污染問題對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生的影響,在綠色增長(zhǎng)研究方面主要是對(duì)綠色生產(chǎn)率的測(cè)算與應(yīng)用。中國(guó)工業(yè)由粗放型向集約型轉(zhuǎn)變,實(shí)現(xiàn)技術(shù)拉動(dòng)下的綠色增長(zhǎng),不僅要努力提高技術(shù)創(chuàng)新能力,而且要改變傳統(tǒng)的依賴于資源稟賦的工業(yè)發(fā)展方式。本文在綠色生產(chǎn)率的研究框架下,圍繞工業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)問題,重點(diǎn)研究了中國(guó)工業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)的潛力與路徑優(yōu)化。對(duì)于中國(guó)工業(yè)改變現(xiàn)在的發(fā)展困境、實(shí)現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)突破具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。同時(shí),為相關(guān)研究在理論研究框架與經(jīng)驗(yàn)研究方面提供新的思路與證據(jù)。通過構(gòu)建擴(kuò)展的索洛模型,分析工業(yè)部門的綠色模式,在理論上分析工業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)與可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)、綠色模式之間的內(nèi)在邏輯關(guān)系。進(jìn)而在理論基礎(chǔ)上,明確提出工業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)的全新內(nèi)涵包括價(jià)值提升、能源節(jié)約與環(huán)境友好三個(gè)方面。中國(guó)工業(yè)不僅要在生產(chǎn)制造過程中提高產(chǎn)品附加值,同時(shí)要在投入環(huán)節(jié)降低能源消耗、在產(chǎn)出環(huán)節(jié)降低污染排放。根據(jù)現(xiàn)有數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)中國(guó)工業(yè)行業(yè)的發(fā)展歷程與現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析,經(jīng)過與其他國(guó)家的比較,發(fā)現(xiàn)中國(guó)工業(yè)的演進(jìn)過程中存在附加值率低、能源消耗與污染排放高的問題,中國(guó)工業(yè)與發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的工業(yè)化水平相比仍然存在較大的提升和發(fā)展空間。理論模型部分,首先通過對(duì)綠色生產(chǎn)率的測(cè)算方法進(jìn)行分析,將綠色生產(chǎn)率的測(cè)算框架與工業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)問題的研究相結(jié)合。并且對(duì)現(xiàn)有方向距離函數(shù)中存在的不足,主要在方向內(nèi)生化、相對(duì)距離與目標(biāo)函數(shù)引入外生權(quán)重三個(gè)方面一一進(jìn)行改進(jìn)。基于新的綠色生產(chǎn)率測(cè)算模型,構(gòu)建工業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)潛力的測(cè)算模型。然后,基于動(dòng)態(tài)多目標(biāo)優(yōu)化模型構(gòu)建工業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)路徑的優(yōu)化模型,確定目標(biāo)函數(shù)與約束條件。經(jīng)過比較,選擇遺傳算法中的NSGA-Ⅱ法對(duì)動(dòng)態(tài)多目標(biāo)優(yōu)化模型進(jìn)行求解,進(jìn)而對(duì)算法進(jìn)行設(shè)計(jì),并且選擇四種主要的優(yōu)化方案對(duì)其結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析。對(duì)于未來工業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)路徑的預(yù)測(cè),選擇灰色預(yù)測(cè)法對(duì)模型中的相關(guān)參數(shù)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。實(shí)證研究部分,首先對(duì)中國(guó)工業(yè)行業(yè)的轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)潛力進(jìn)行測(cè)算。基于2001-2013年中國(guó)工業(yè)36個(gè)二位碼行業(yè)數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)綠色全要素生產(chǎn)率與能源環(huán)境效率進(jìn)行測(cè)算和比較。并且分別測(cè)算出工業(yè)行業(yè)在價(jià)值提升、能源節(jié)約與環(huán)境友好方面的絕對(duì)與相對(duì)潛力。發(fā)現(xiàn)不同類型行業(yè)在提高附加值、減少能源投入、降低污染排放方面具有不同的變化潛力。根據(jù)工業(yè)升級(jí)潛力初步結(jié)果中發(fā)現(xiàn)的問題,進(jìn)一步對(duì)工業(yè)升級(jí)潛力的測(cè)算模型進(jìn)行修正,得到各工業(yè)行業(yè)升級(jí)潛力的真實(shí)值。模型如果未進(jìn)行修正所得到的結(jié)果要低估工業(yè)行業(yè)的升級(jí)潛力。然后,對(duì)中國(guó)工業(yè)行業(yè)的轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)路徑進(jìn)行優(yōu)化與預(yù)測(cè)�；�2006-2010年工業(yè)行業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)“十一五”期間中國(guó)工業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)的路徑進(jìn)行優(yōu)化,得到Pareto最優(yōu)解。通過對(duì)不同類型轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)方案的比較和分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)工業(yè)行業(yè)可以在現(xiàn)有技術(shù)水平與約束條件下,通過改變行業(yè)之間的產(chǎn)出比例,可以增加總的工業(yè)增加值產(chǎn)出,同時(shí)大幅減少能源消耗量與污染排放量。進(jìn)一步,分別采用2011-2015年、2016-2020年工業(yè)行業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)“十二五”和“十三五”期間中國(guó)工業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)的路徑進(jìn)行優(yōu)化與預(yù)測(cè)。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)在兼顧價(jià)值提升、能源節(jié)約與污染排放三個(gè)目標(biāo)條件下,通過減少一些工業(yè)行業(yè)的生產(chǎn)規(guī)模、重點(diǎn)發(fā)展一部分工業(yè)行業(yè),進(jìn)而改變中國(guó)的工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),可以實(shí)現(xiàn)創(chuàng)造更多的工業(yè)增加值,同時(shí)減少工業(yè)能源消耗以及工業(yè)污染排放。最后對(duì)本文研究結(jié)論以及不足之處進(jìn)行總結(jié),并且提出未來可能的研究方向。
[Abstract]:In the rise of labor costs and increasing resources and environmental constraints, industrial transformation and upgrading has become the key problem China economic development. The existing researches are mainly concentrated on industrial upgrading from the perspective of global value chain, from the perspective of research in resource and environmental constraints was limited to the analysis of energy consumption and pollution problems and the impact on economic growth, in green growth is mainly on the calculation and application of green productivity. China industrial transformation from extensive to intensive, green growth driven by technology, not only must strive to improve the technical innovation ability, and to change the traditional rely on resource endowment industry development. Based on the research framework of green productivity, around industrial transformation and upgrading, focusing on the potential and path optimization and upgrading of the industrial Chinese transformation. For Chinese industrial change now The plight of the development, to achieve the transformation and upgrading of the breakthrough has important practical significance. At the same time, for the relevant research to provide ideas and new evidence in the theoretical framework and empirical research. Through the construction of the extended Solow model, analysis model of green industry, analysis in theory and the sustainable growth of industry transformation and upgrade, internal logic of the relationship between green mode between. Then on the basis of theory, put forward the new connotation of industrial transformation and upgrading including value promotion, energy saving and environmental friendly three aspects. China industry not only to raise the additional value of the products in the manufacturing process, at the same time in the sector to reduce energy consumption, reduce pollution emissions in the production link. According to the analysis and the current situation of China industry existing data, through comparison with other countries, the evolution process of industry in China found in additional The value of low energy consumption, high emission and pollution problems, Chinese industry and industrialization in the developed countries there are still large compared to the level of improvement and development space. The model, first through the calculation method of green productivity analysis, green productivity measurement and research framework of industrial transformation and upgrading and combination. The shortcomings of the existing directional distance function, mainly in the direction of endogenous, relative distance and target function are introduced into three aspects: one is improved. The weight of the exogenous productivity calculation based on the new model of green construction, calculation model of industrial upgrading and transformation potential. Then, the dynamic multi-objective optimization model optimization model based on the path of industrial transformation and upgrading sure, the objective function and constraints. By comparison, the dynamic multi-objective optimization model for solving NSGA- II method in genetic algorithm Then, the design of algorithms, and choose four kinds of optimization scheme is mainly to analyze the results. To predict the future path of industrial transformation and upgrading, select the grey prediction method to predict the parameters in the model. The empirical research part, first of Chinese industry transformation upgrade potential estimates. 2001-2013 years China industry 36 two digital industry based on the data of the green total factor productivity estimates and compares the environmental and energy efficiency. And calculates industry in value, energy saving and environmental friendly aspects of absolute and relative potential. It is found that different types of industry in improving the added value, reduce the energy input, with changes in different aspects of potential to reduce pollution emissions. According to the preliminary results of industrial upgrading potential problems in the further calculation of the model of industrial upgrading potential revised by The industrial upgrading potential true value. If the model is not corrected results underestimate the industry upgrade potential. Then, the transformation of Chinese industrial upgrading path optimization and prediction. The "path" in 11th Five-Year during China industrial transformation and upgrading of the optimized industrial data based on 2006-2010 years, get optimal Pareto the solution through the comparison and analysis of the upgrade program for different types of industrial transformation, found in the existing technical level and constraint conditions, by changing the output ratio between the industry, can increase the total added value of industrial output, while significantly reducing energy consumption and pollution emission. Further, by 2011-2015 years, industry 2016-2020 years of data optimization and prediction of the "12th Five-Year" and "13th Five-Year" during Chinese industrial transformation and upgrading of the path found. In the balance of value promotion, energy saving and pollution emissions of the three target conditions, by reducing some of the industrial production scale, the development of a part of industry focus, and then change the industrial structure Chinese, can create more industrial added value, while reducing industrial energy consumption and industrial pollution emissions. The final conclusion of this paper study and summarize the shortages, and puts forward the future research direction.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F424

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