本文選題：風險感知　切入點：風險管理　出處：《華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：巴基斯坦的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和生活水平很大的依靠農(nóng)業(yè),該國農(nóng)業(yè)貢獻了21%的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP),且有43%的人口從事農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)。近10年中,人口的增加和停滯增長農(nóng)業(yè)導致了農(nóng)產(chǎn)品需求和攻擊的不均衡。農(nóng)業(yè)增長的停滯主要是由于面臨各種風險包括氣候風險和農(nóng)場層面的低適應(yīng)能力等造成的作物產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量的持續(xù)下降。巴基斯坦是近10年來遭受氣候風險總嚴重的前10個國家之一。農(nóng)民是遭受危機和風險的最重要的利益相關(guān)體。農(nóng)民不得不要面對來自自然、經(jīng)濟、社會政治環(huán)境等不同的風險。農(nóng)民需要接受變化著的管理政策去規(guī)避這些風險和維護他們的作物產(chǎn)量。目前巴基斯坦的農(nóng)業(yè)政策不能很好的關(guān)注農(nóng)民感知層面和農(nóng)場水平的風險管理。而且在巴基斯坦,這些方面的交互作用的研究也很有限。這篇博士論文以棉花農(nóng)民為例,聚焦推動農(nóng)民接受不同管理選擇(包括增加收入來源來抵作物生產(chǎn)的帶來的風險)的影響因素。具體而言,本研究的四個研究目標中,第一個是描述和對主要的農(nóng)業(yè)風險進行分類,其次定義農(nóng)民的on-farm(耕種自家田地)和off-farm(耕種別人家的田地)風險管理策略,第三個研究探究非農(nóng)收入的前置因素,第四個研究闡述了非農(nóng)收入和脫離貧困的關(guān)系。這個研究基于家庭層面的從2014-2015年的巴基斯坦punjab生的調(diào)研。我們使用結(jié)構(gòu)化問卷訪問了480個農(nóng)村家庭。研究運用了多種經(jīng)濟和統(tǒng)計手段去探索我們的研究目的。運用SPSS軟件的因子分析功能來找出風險來源和農(nóng)場層面的風險管理的主要決定因素。進而,我們使用OLS回歸來探索農(nóng)場、農(nóng)民特征、風險來源與風險管理的關(guān)系。通過因子分析,我們明確了五個主要的風險來源,例如勞動力和市場信息,產(chǎn)量,制度,金融、國家等和五個主要的風險管理策略,如資金管理、信用、科研、信息管理和多樣化。OLS回歸的結(jié)果表明許多農(nóng)場和農(nóng)戶特征顯著的影響了農(nóng)戶的風險感知來源和風險策略的選擇。進一步,我們運用ELCE方法來分析農(nóng)戶風險行為,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)通常而言大部分的農(nóng)戶是風險規(guī)避的。我們用probit模型來探究影響風險規(guī)避本性和四個主要風險感知(如洪水,暴雨,病蟲害和高買入價格)的影響因素。結(jié)果表明人口統(tǒng)計學變量(如年齡、受教育水平、地區(qū))顯著的影響了家庭農(nóng)業(yè)風險規(guī)避的本性和風險重要性的感知。我們運用邏輯回歸方法來分析off-farm(耕種他人田地)由于感知風險造成收入的變動的影響因素。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)非農(nóng)收入不僅能幫助農(nóng)民來規(guī)避來自特定風險的損失,而且能夠為農(nóng)民提供額外的收入用來及時的購買農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)要素例如種子、化肥以及地下水。根據(jù)農(nóng)民的回答,我們可以將非農(nóng)收入的來源分為商業(yè)、服務(wù)以及非農(nóng)勞動三種。邏輯回歸的結(jié)果顯示,例如農(nóng)場規(guī)模、家庭勞動力數(shù)量、撫養(yǎng)比例、臨街狀況等特征都是導致農(nóng)民參與非農(nóng)收入來源的影響因素。貧窮也是農(nóng)場層面的一大障礙,它限制了農(nóng)民管理風險的能力。我們運用FGT技術(shù)來評估務(wù)農(nóng)家庭的貧困水平和貧困的嚴重程度。我們使用人均每天2美元作為人民生活的貧困線。調(diào)查顯示一半以上的人生活在貧困線以下。邏輯回歸的結(jié)果顯示教育、撫養(yǎng)比例、貸款能力、風險策略適應(yīng)力等因素顯著的影響了研究區(qū)域內(nèi)的被調(diào)查的貧困程度。從所有的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)中我們可以總結(jié)出:對風險來源的較好識別以及風險管理的策略對農(nóng)民來獲得較好農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)量來說至關(guān)重要。政府應(yīng)該提出更好的政策和發(fā)展制度性機制例如糧食保險系統(tǒng)來幫助攤薄農(nóng)業(yè)風險。能夠獲得更好的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)對農(nóng)村家庭的生活有著多方面的效果。這能夠提高他們的家庭年收入并幫助他們脫離貧困的惡性循環(huán)。此外,全面的農(nóng)業(yè)增長能夠提高國家層面的經(jīng)濟水平。增加農(nóng)民的耕種其他人的土地帶來的收入來源的采用對于小的企業(yè)是可行的獲得更多的收入的辦法。解決貧困受訪者增加農(nóng)業(yè)收入和非農(nóng)收入是必需的。這一目標可以通過利用非農(nóng)企業(yè)中家庭職工。因此需要在這方面設(shè)計合適的政策。
[Abstract]:Pakistan's economic development and living standards greatly depend on agriculture, the agriculture contributed 21% of the gross domestic product (GDP), and 43% of the population engaged in agricultural production. In the recent 10 years, the increase of population growth and stagnation of agriculture causes demand for agricultural products and the attack is not balanced. The stagnation of agricultural growth is mainly due to the continued decline in yield of crop products caused by various risks including climate risk and farm level low adaptability and so on. Pakistan is one of the top 10 countries over the past 10 years suffered serious climate risk. Farmers are the most important stakeholders from the crisis and risk. Farmers have to face from the natural, economic risk, social and political environment. Different farmers need to accept the changing management policy to avoid these risks and maintain their crops. The current agricultural policy in Pakistan cannot Pay attention to the farmers' perception of risk management level and farm level very well. But in Pakistan, the interactions between these areas is also very limited. This thesis focused on cotton farmers for example, promote farmers to accept different management options (including sources of income to support the risk of crop production) factors. Specifically, four research objectives of this study, the first is the description and classification of the main agricultural risk, followed by on-farm (the definition of farmers farming their own land) and off-farm (another farming land) risk management strategy, Third Research on antecedents of non-agricultural income, fourth of non-agricultural the relationship between income and poverty. This research is based on the household level from 2014-2015 years of Pakistan Punjab research. We used a structured questionnaire to 480 rural home Study on the court. The use of a variety of economic and statistical methods to explore the purpose of our study. The main decision factor of risk management by using the SPSS software analysis function to find out the risk sources and farm level factors. Then, we use OLS regression to explore the farm, farmers characteristics, risk sources and risk management by factor analysis., we identified five major sources of risk, such as labor and market information, production, finance, national system, and five major risk management strategies, such as fund management, credit, research results, information management and diversification of.OLS regression shows that many farms and household characteristics significantly affect farmer's source risk perception and risk management strategies. Further, we use the ELCE method to analyze the farmers' risk behavior, we found that most of the farmers are generally risk aversion. We use pr The obit model to explore the impact of risk aversion and the nature of the four main risk perception (such as flood, storm, pest and high purchase price). The results showed that the influence factors of demographic variables (such as age, education level, family area) significantly affected the agricultural risk avoiding the nature and importance of risk perception. We using logistic regression analysis of off-farm (farming fields due to factors affecting others) perceived risk caused by the change of income. We found that the non-agricultural income can not only help the farmers to circumvent the risk from a particular loss, but also can provide additional income for timely purchasing of agricultural production factors such as seeds and fertilizers for farmers, farmers according to groundwater. The answer, we will be able to non-agricultural sources of income include commercial, service and non-agricultural labor three. Logistic regression results showed that the cases such as farm size, The number of family labor, raising the proportion of features of street condition are factors that influence farmers' participation in non farm income sources. A major obstacle to poverty is the farm level, which limits the ability of farmers to manage risk. We use the FGT technique to assess the severity of poverty and poverty of the flat water farming family. We use 2 per person a day as people's life of poverty. Survey shows that more than half of the people living below the poverty line. Logistic regression results show that education, the dependency ratio and loan risk strategy ability, adaptability and so factors significantly affect the study area surveyed poverty. From all the study findings we can conclude: the risk source identification and better risk management strategies for farmers to obtain good agricultural production is very important. The government should make policy and develop better Institutional mechanisms such as grain insurance system to help diluted agricultural risks. To obtain better agricultural production in rural family life has a side effect. It can improve the income of their families and help them out of poverty and the vicious spiral. In addition, comprehensive agricultural growth can improve the national level economic level increased by farmers. The cultivation of other people's land revenue sources for small enterprises is feasible to get more income to solve poverty. Respondents to increase agricultural income and non-agricultural income is required. This goal can be achieved by using family enterprises. Therefore non-agricultural workers need to design appropriate policies in this regard.

【學位授予單位】：華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F335.3
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本文編號：1687828