本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國(guó)糧食生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)與技術(shù)選擇研究　出處：《中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院》2015年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 糧食 生產(chǎn)效率 要素投入 技術(shù)類型 技術(shù)選擇

【摘要】：目前我國(guó)糧食產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展受到自然資源匱乏和勞動(dòng)力資源不足、農(nóng)業(yè)投入水平有限、農(nóng)業(yè)基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)薄弱等多重壓力,研究如何保障我國(guó)糧食持續(xù)穩(wěn)定的增產(chǎn)增收,對(duì)我國(guó)糧食產(chǎn)業(yè)乃至對(duì)我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)的發(fā)展都具有重要意義。本研究從生產(chǎn)角度研究我國(guó)三種主要糧食作物生產(chǎn)現(xiàn)狀及生產(chǎn)波動(dòng)特征,測(cè)算糧食全要素生產(chǎn)率及分解與分析勞動(dòng)和土地生產(chǎn)率的地區(qū)差異,分析糧食技術(shù)效率的空間分布及技術(shù)溢出,對(duì)不同技術(shù)類型對(duì)糧食綜合生產(chǎn)能力發(fā)展的影響進(jìn)行了深入探討,并從微觀農(nóng)戶技術(shù)選擇層面進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析,最后基于以上研究為今后我國(guó)糧食產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展提供有益的政策建議�；诓捎萌A段DEA方法,我國(guó)糧食主產(chǎn)區(qū)全要素生產(chǎn)率平均改進(jìn)速度達(dá)到1.8%,糧食主產(chǎn)區(qū)改進(jìn)差異明顯。研究得出,我國(guó)糧食全要素生產(chǎn)率不存在絕對(duì)收斂,但存在條件收斂,并且西部地區(qū)的收斂速度最快。采用基于回歸方程分解方法分解糧食勞動(dòng)、土地生產(chǎn)率的地區(qū)差異,研究表明技術(shù)效率是核心影響因素。我國(guó)糧食生產(chǎn)技術(shù)效率分布存在顯著的空間集聚效應(yīng)�；诳臻g面板回歸模型研究,研究得出,各地區(qū)技術(shù)積累、資本投入和農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)人員的地區(qū)差異顯著影響了生產(chǎn)技術(shù)效率的空間溢出,導(dǎo)致糧食生產(chǎn)效率的地區(qū)間差異無(wú)法依靠糧食產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部實(shí)現(xiàn)穩(wěn)態(tài)�；贓-S模型計(jì)算技術(shù)對(duì)糧食產(chǎn)量變動(dòng)的影響,并引入調(diào)節(jié)變量改造傳統(tǒng)柯布道格拉斯生產(chǎn)函數(shù),采用多層線性回歸模型擬合。研究得出,生物化學(xué)型技術(shù)投入對(duì)糧食增產(chǎn)的貢獻(xiàn)達(dá)到86%,占主導(dǎo)地位。生物化學(xué)型和機(jī)械型技術(shù)的要素投入對(duì)糧食產(chǎn)量起干擾型調(diào)節(jié)作用,所以加大兩類技術(shù)投入可以突破糧食增產(chǎn)的水土資源與勞動(dòng)力約束。根據(jù)模型結(jié)果預(yù)期,“十三·五”期間的年平均糧食產(chǎn)量或達(dá)6.3億噸的水平。基于技術(shù)選擇理論,采用多元Logit模型研究個(gè)人特征、經(jīng)濟(jì)特征、生產(chǎn)技術(shù)特征、主觀規(guī)范以及糧食經(jīng)營(yíng)特征等對(duì)農(nóng)戶糧食生產(chǎn)技術(shù)選擇行為的影響,研究認(rèn)為生物化學(xué)型技術(shù)是目前我國(guó)糧食種植農(nóng)戶的選擇的重點(diǎn),但未來(lái)機(jī)械型技術(shù)前景更為廣闊。生物化學(xué)型技術(shù)的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)主要是以生物育種技術(shù)為主,而機(jī)械型技術(shù)的未來(lái)發(fā)展方向是以農(nóng)業(yè)信息技術(shù)為基礎(chǔ)的精準(zhǔn)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)。基于以上研究,提出以下政策建議：穩(wěn)定糧食播種面積,加快農(nóng)田水利改造工程；推進(jìn)農(nóng)村土地流轉(zhuǎn)確權(quán)制度改革,鼓勵(lì)適度規(guī)�；�(jīng)營(yíng)；加快剩余勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移,提高補(bǔ)貼水平；加強(qiáng)農(nóng)業(yè)科技自主創(chuàng)新和技術(shù)引進(jìn)、農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)推廣和培訓(xùn)體系建設(shè)以及農(nóng)村糧食合作組織建設(shè)；加大對(duì)資金扶持力度,縮小地區(qū)間差異；建設(shè)農(nóng)業(yè)災(zāi)害預(yù)警及保險(xiǎn)賠償機(jī)制,加強(qiáng)國(guó)家糧食收儲(chǔ)體系管理。
[Abstract]:At present, the development of food industry in China is under the pressure of shortage of natural resources and labor resources, limited agricultural input level, weak agricultural infrastructure and so on. This paper studies how to ensure a sustained and stable increase in grain production and income in China. This study is of great significance to China's grain industry and even to the development of China's agriculture. This study studies the production status and production fluctuation characteristics of three main food crops in China from the perspective of production. To measure the total factor productivity of grain and to analyze the regional differences of labor and land productivity, and to analyze the spatial distribution and technology spillover of grain technology efficiency. The influence of different technology types on the development of grain comprehensive production capacity is discussed in depth, and the empirical analysis is carried out from the level of micro-farmers' technical choice. Finally, based on the above research to provide useful policy recommendations for the future development of China's grain industry. Based on the three-stage DEA method, the average rate of improvement of total factor productivity in the main grain production areas of China reaches 1.8%. The research shows that there is no absolute convergence of total factor productivity of grain in China, but there is conditional convergence. And the speed of convergence in the western region is the fastest. Based on regression equation decomposition method is used to decompose the regional differences of grain labor and land productivity. The research shows that technical efficiency is the core factor. There is a significant spatial agglomeration effect in the distribution of technical efficiency of grain production in China. Based on the research of spatial panel regression model, it is concluded that the technology accumulation in different regions. The regional differences of capital input and agricultural technicians significantly affect the spatial spillover of production technology efficiency. The regional differences of grain production efficiency can not depend on the steady-state of grain industry. Based on the E-S model, the effect of the technology on the grain yield changes can not be achieved. The traditional Cobb Douglas production function was modified by adjusting variables, and the multi-layer linear regression model was used to fit it. The results showed that the contribution of biochemical technology input to grain production increased to 86%. The factor input of biochemical and mechanical technology plays an interference role in grain yield. Therefore, increasing the input of two kinds of technology can break through the constraints of water and soil resources and labor force to increase grain production. The average annual grain output during the period of "13 路5" may reach 630 million tons. Based on the theory of technology selection, this paper studies the characteristics of individual, economy and production technology by using the multivariate Logit model. The influence of subjective norms and grain management characteristics on the behavior of farmers' choice of grain production technology is considered to be the key point of the selection of grain planting farmers in China at present. But the future of mechanical technology is more broad. The development trend of biochemistry technology is mainly biological breeding technology. The future development direction of mechanical technology is precision agriculture technology based on agricultural information technology. Based on the above research, the following policy suggestions are put forward: stabilizing grain sowing area and speeding up irrigation and water conservancy reconstruction project; Promoting the reform of the system of confirming the right of rural land circulation and encouraging moderate scale operation; Speed up the transfer of surplus labor force, improve the level of subsidies; We will strengthen independent innovation in agricultural science and technology and the introduction of technology, the construction of agricultural technology extension and training systems and the construction of rural grain cooperation organizations; Increase financial support to reduce regional differences; We will build a mechanism for early warning and insurance compensation for agricultural disasters and strengthen the management of the national grain collection and storage system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F326.11

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本文編號(hào)：1417560