本文關(guān)鍵詞：氣候變化對(duì)中國(guó)油菜生產(chǎn)的影響研究　出處：《華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 氣候變化 油菜生產(chǎn) 影響評(píng)估 時(shí)空特征 區(qū)域差異

【摘要】：氣候變化問(wèn)題被認(rèn)為是當(dāng)今人類(lèi)社會(huì)面臨的最嚴(yán)峻環(huán)境挑戰(zhàn)之一。在政府間氣候變化專(zhuān)門(mén)委員會(huì)(Intergo vernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC)第五次發(fā)布的氣候變化評(píng)估報(bào)告(The Fifth Assessment Report,AR5)中指出,自1950年以來(lái),氣候系統(tǒng)監(jiān)測(cè)到的許多變化表明全球氣候系統(tǒng)變暖的事實(shí)毋庸置疑。大量的研究證實(shí)氣候變化對(duì)人類(lèi)社會(huì)生產(chǎn)、生活和生態(tài)系統(tǒng)已經(jīng)產(chǎn)生影響,氣候變化對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的影響也逐漸被證實(shí)。大量研究集中在氣候變化對(duì)糧食作物生產(chǎn)的影響,而缺乏對(duì)油料作物的相關(guān)系統(tǒng)研究。油菜(Oilseed Rape,OSR)作為世界第三大食用油來(lái)源和第二大蛋白質(zhì)來(lái)源,其生產(chǎn)的穩(wěn)定與否關(guān)系到油菜種植農(nóng)戶(hù)的利益、食用油供給安全以及全球油料貿(mào)易的穩(wěn)定。在氣候變化背景下,油菜生產(chǎn)是否受到影響?氣候變化對(duì)油菜生產(chǎn)投入、單產(chǎn)和種植面積如何影響?可預(yù)測(cè)的未來(lái)氣候變化如何影響油菜單產(chǎn)、種植面積和總產(chǎn)量?對(duì)這些問(wèn)題的深入研究將有助于明確氣候變化對(duì)油菜生產(chǎn)的影響,從而構(gòu)建有效的應(yīng)對(duì)措施體系,穩(wěn)定油菜供給。鑒于此,本文以氣候變化對(duì)中國(guó)冬油菜生產(chǎn)影響為研究對(duì)象,首先對(duì)論文中涉及到的相關(guān)概念進(jìn)行界定,系統(tǒng)梳理國(guó)內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn),總結(jié)研究動(dòng)態(tài),并對(duì)相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行回顧,以確保研究基礎(chǔ)。然后,對(duì)全球油菜產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展和中國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r進(jìn)行詳細(xì)闡述,在此基礎(chǔ)上,從微觀(guān)農(nóng)戶(hù)層面探討氣候變化對(duì)油菜生產(chǎn)化肥和農(nóng)藥投入的影響,明確關(guān)鍵氣候因素和關(guān)鍵生長(zhǎng)階段。接下來(lái)分析氣候變化對(duì)油菜單產(chǎn)的影響,并進(jìn)行區(qū)域差異對(duì)比和生長(zhǎng)階段對(duì)比,確定關(guān)鍵生產(chǎn)區(qū)域、關(guān)鍵氣候因素和關(guān)鍵生長(zhǎng)階段。然后分析氣候變化對(duì)油菜種植面積的影響。最后,預(yù)測(cè)21世紀(jì)中期氣候變化對(duì)中國(guó)油菜單產(chǎn)、種植面積和總產(chǎn)量的影響,針對(duì)未來(lái)氣候變化對(duì)油菜總產(chǎn)量的影響以及影響的區(qū)域差異性,借鑒國(guó)際上應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的經(jīng)驗(yàn),對(duì)適應(yīng)和減緩氣候變化對(duì)油菜生產(chǎn)的影響提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。本文得出的主要結(jié)論有:(1)歷史氣候變化對(duì)大部分地區(qū)油菜單產(chǎn)提高不利,對(duì)華南沿海、黃淮平原和長(zhǎng)江中游地區(qū)油菜種植面積增長(zhǎng)不利,對(duì)云貴高原、四川盆地和長(zhǎng)江下游地區(qū)油菜種植面積增長(zhǎng)有利。(2)未來(lái)氣候變化對(duì)華南沿海、四川盆地和長(zhǎng)江下游地區(qū)油菜單產(chǎn)不利,對(duì)黃淮平原、云貴高原、長(zhǎng)江中游地區(qū)油菜單產(chǎn)有利。未來(lái)氣候變化對(duì)黃淮平原和長(zhǎng)江中游地區(qū)油菜種植面積不利,對(duì)華南沿海、云貴高原、長(zhǎng)江下游和四川盆地地區(qū)油菜種植面積有利。(3)未來(lái)氣候變化將導(dǎo)致中國(guó)油菜減產(chǎn)1.83~2.63萬(wàn)噸,大致相當(dāng)于華南沿海地區(qū)2013年油菜總產(chǎn)。(4)不同氣候因素比較而言,溫度對(duì)化肥投入的影響最顯著,溫度在苗期、蕾薹期和開(kāi)花期對(duì)單產(chǎn)較關(guān)鍵,并且對(duì)絕大多數(shù)油菜主產(chǎn)區(qū)油菜種植面積的影響最大。降水對(duì)農(nóng)藥投入的影響最顯著,降水在苗期和蕾苔期對(duì)單產(chǎn)較關(guān)鍵。日照時(shí)數(shù)在成熟期對(duì)單產(chǎn)較關(guān)鍵。(5)緯度較低地區(qū)的油菜單產(chǎn)更容易因氣候變暖而減產(chǎn),受氣候變化的負(fù)面影響也更大。(6)其他因素方面,勞動(dòng)力投入對(duì)油菜單產(chǎn)影響最大,隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)一步發(fā)展,勞動(dòng)力投入對(duì)油菜生產(chǎn)的制約性將越來(lái)越大。油菜籽臨時(shí)收儲(chǔ)政策有利于油菜種植面積增長(zhǎng),該政策的實(shí)施一定程度上提升了農(nóng)戶(hù)種植油菜積極性。研究可能的創(chuàng)新之處體現(xiàn)在三個(gè)方面:(1)將氣候變化對(duì)油菜總產(chǎn)量的影響細(xì)分為對(duì)單產(chǎn)和種植面積的影響。以往相關(guān)研究?jī)A向于假定氣候變化對(duì)作物種植面積無(wú)影響,本文將油菜單產(chǎn)和種植面積分別對(duì)氣候變量和其他經(jīng)濟(jì)變量建模,綜合氣候變化對(duì)油菜單產(chǎn)和種植面積的影響,最終得到氣候變化對(duì)總產(chǎn)量的影響,結(jié)果更準(zhǔn)確。(2)將氣候變化對(duì)中國(guó)油菜生產(chǎn)的影響細(xì)分為對(duì)各油菜主產(chǎn)區(qū)生產(chǎn)的影響,并進(jìn)行空間區(qū)域性差異分析。不同地區(qū)油菜單產(chǎn)和種植面積對(duì)于氣候變化的敏感程度不同,研究結(jié)果表明,一些地區(qū)油菜單產(chǎn)和種植面積因氣候變化增加,而另一些地區(qū)油菜單產(chǎn)和種植面積則因氣候變化減少�？傮w而言,氣候變化對(duì)不同地區(qū)的影響互相有所抵消。(3)結(jié)合作物學(xué)知識(shí),將油菜生育期劃分為4個(gè)生長(zhǎng)階段,并結(jié)合經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)相關(guān)理論和方法,深入分析油菜各生長(zhǎng)階段氣候因素對(duì)油菜單產(chǎn)的影響。
[Abstract]:The issue of climate change is considered one of the most serious environmental challenges facing human society today. In the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change (Intergo vernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) released its fifth assessment report on climate change (the The Fifth Assessment Report, AR5) pointed out that since 1950, many changes to the climate system monitoring the fact that the global warming of the climate system no doubt. Many studies have confirmed the production of climate change on human society, life and ecological system has been affected, the effect of climate change on agriculture has gradually been confirmed. Many researches focused on the impact of climate change on crop production, and the lack of research on related systems for oil crops. Rape (Oilseed Rape OSR) as the world's third largest source of edible oil and the second largest source of protein, its production is stable or not related to oil The interests of farmers planting vegetables, edible oil supply security and the global oil trade stability. Under the background of climate change, rapeseed production is affected? Climate change on rapeseed production investment, how to influence the yield and planting area in the foreseeable future? How climate change will affect rapeseed yield, planting area and output? Research on these questions will help determine the impact of climate change on rapeseed production, so as to construct the system of effective measures, stable supply of rapeseed. In view of this, this paper Chinese of climate change on winter rapeseed production influence as the research object, firstly, the relevant concepts of the definition, combing the literature at home and abroad summarize the research trends, and the related theories are reviewed, in order to ensure that the basis of the research. Then, elaborate the development of rape industry and the development of the global China industry, on this base On the basis, from the micro household level to explore the impacts of climate change on rapeseed production inputs of fertilizers and pesticides, clarify the key climate factors and key growth stages. Then the impact of climate change on rapeseed yield, and regional differences and the growth stages of comparison, determine the key production areas, key climate factors and key growth stages and analysis. Climate change effects on the rape planting area. Finally, the prediction of climate change on the mid twenty-first Century Chinese rapeseed yield, the effect of planting area and total output, regional differences in the future effects of climate change on rape output as well as the influence of climate change, learn from international experience, to adapt to and mitigate the impact of climate change on rape the production of the corresponding policy recommendations are proposed. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the history of climate change on the production increase of oil in most parts of the menu Negative, on the coast of Southern China, Huang Huai and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Plain rape planting area of growth disadvantage, the Yunnan Guizhou Plateau, Sichuan basin and the Yangtze River downstream area of rape planting area growth advantage. (2) of future climate change on the Southern China coast, the lower reaches of the Sichuan River Basin and the Yangtze River oil production on the menu adverse, Huang Huai plain, Yunnan Guizhou Plateau, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River area of rapeseed yield advantage. Future climate change on rapeseed planting area of the Huang Huai plain and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River on the Southern China coast, unfavorable, the Yunnan Guizhou Plateau, the lower reaches of the Yangtze River area and Sichuan basin of rape planting area advantage. (3) the future climate change will lead to Chinese rapeseed production 1.83~2.63 million tons, roughly equivalent to the coastal area of Southern China in 2013 the total production of rapeseed. (4) different climate factors comparison, temperature is the most significant impact on fertilizer input, the temperature at the seedling stage, bud stage and flowering stage is the key to yield, and the vast Most rapeseed in the rape cultivated area is the largest. The most significant effect on pesticide precipitation, precipitation in seedling stage and budding stage to yield the key. Sunshine in the mature period of yield is the key. (5) rapeseed yield of low latitude areas are more likely to decrease due to climate warming, negative influence climate change is also greater. (6) other factors, labor input the greatest effect on rapeseed yield, with the further development of economy, the labor input of rapeseed production will be more and more. The policy of temporary storage of rapeseed is conducive to the growth of rape planting area, the implementation of the policy to a certain extent to enhance the farmers planting rape actively. The innovation of research is embodied in three aspects: (1) the segmentation effect of climate change on the total output of the effects on rapeseed yield and planting area. Previous studies tend to assume that Climate change has no effect on crop acreage, the rape yield and planting area of climate variables and other economic variables modeling, the comprehensive effects of climate change on rapeseed yield and planting area, finally get the impact of climate change on the total yield, more accurate results. (2) the segmentation effect of climate change on Rapeseed production Chinese the impact on production in different rapeseed producing areas, and spatial analysis of regional differences. The sensitivity of different parts of rape yield and planting area for climate change, the results of the study show that, in some areas of oil production and planting area increase menu due to climate change, and other areas of rapeseed yield and planting area due to climate change reduced. Overall, climate change has been offset by mutual influence in different region. (3) the cooperation object knowledge, the rape growth period is divided into 4 growth stages, and Combined with the theories and methods of economics, the effects of climatic factors on rape yield in each stage of rape were analyzed.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：S162;F326.12

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8 黃勇;中國(guó)需積極應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化危機(jī)[N];中國(guó)環(huán)境報(bào);2007年

9 柳艷菊;應(yīng)對(duì)全球氣候變化中國(guó)邁出堅(jiān)實(shí)步伐[N];中國(guó)環(huán)境報(bào);2007年

10 本報(bào)記者 黃勇;聯(lián)大首次舉行氣候變化專(zhuān)題辯論[N];中國(guó)環(huán)境報(bào);2007年

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1 王t熺，

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