本文關(guān)鍵詞：玉米進口來源國玉米生產(chǎn)潛力、潛力開發(fā)影響因素及貿(mào)易策略研究　出處：《南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 玉米進口來源國 生產(chǎn)潛力 比較優(yōu)勢 境外農(nóng)業(yè)資源利用 合作風(fēng)險

【摘要】：糧食安全問題是關(guān)乎國計民生的重大戰(zhàn)略問題。改革開放三十多年來,中國糧食生產(chǎn)取得了舉世矚目的成就,但是隨著中國經(jīng)濟的進一步發(fā)展,中國糧食尤其是玉米的供需矛盾日漸突出。在保證“飯碗端在自己手里”的前提下,依靠國外玉米生產(chǎn)資源保障中國玉米供應(yīng)越來越重要。與此同時,國際糧食市場風(fēng)險越來越大,中國玉米進口將面臨較大不確定性。未來如何建立穩(wěn)定、可靠的進口糧源保障體系,確保玉米進口來源的穩(wěn)定性和持續(xù)性,成為合理利用國外玉米生產(chǎn)資源的關(guān)鍵。為了確保中國玉米進口來源的穩(wěn)定性和持續(xù)性,首先,應(yīng)當(dāng)弄清楚國外玉米生產(chǎn)資源的分布,測算不同國家的玉米生產(chǎn)出口潛力,確定利用國外玉米生產(chǎn)資源的目標(biāo)區(qū)域。其次,利用境外農(nóng)業(yè)資源的方式應(yīng)當(dāng)向產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的上游延伸。發(fā)達國家跨國農(nóng)業(yè)公司的經(jīng)驗表明:利用境外農(nóng)業(yè)資源的方式越向產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈上游延伸,農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進口的穩(wěn)定性和持續(xù)性越好。因此利用境外農(nóng)業(yè)資源的方式應(yīng)當(dāng)從產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易環(huán)節(jié)向農(nóng)產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的上游環(huán)節(jié)——運輸環(huán)節(jié)、生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)、產(chǎn)前環(huán)節(jié)延伸。為此就必須考察目標(biāo)區(qū)域玉米運輸、種植和產(chǎn)前環(huán)節(jié)的現(xiàn)狀和特點,從而促進中國和目標(biāo)區(qū)域國家在玉米產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈上游實現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)合作。同時注意考察目標(biāo)區(qū)域的境外玉米生產(chǎn)資源利用有關(guān)的風(fēng)險。在上述兩點提供信息的基礎(chǔ)上,對于不同的目標(biāo)區(qū)域提出有針對性利用方式,從而保障中國能夠持續(xù)、穩(wěn)定地獲取境外玉米供應(yīng)。圍繞上述目標(biāo),具體而言是回答以下問題:世界上哪些國家具有較大的玉米生產(chǎn)潛力,在未來可以持續(xù)穩(wěn)定地滿足中國的玉米進口需要,從而成為中國的玉米進口來源國?那些玉米生產(chǎn)有潛力的國家,它們的玉米生產(chǎn)有哪些重要的影響因素?玉米生產(chǎn)潛力開發(fā)制約性因素是什么?在玉米產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的運輸環(huán)節(jié)、生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)、產(chǎn)前環(huán)節(jié),有哪些不利因素制約著玉米生產(chǎn)潛力的開發(fā)?如果中國擴大從這些國家的玉米進口,中國能否根據(jù)自身的比較優(yōu)勢,實現(xiàn)玉米產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈中生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)的合作?中國如果與這些國家開展玉米生產(chǎn)和貿(mào)易合作,合作的風(fēng)險有哪些?圍繞這些問題,本文對中國玉米進口來源國玉米生產(chǎn)潛力、潛力開發(fā)影響因素及貿(mào)易策略做系統(tǒng)研究,主要包括以下四方面的內(nèi)容:研究內(nèi)容一:中國玉米進口來源國的選擇。首先在全球玉米凈出口國中,選擇擁有一定潛在耕地規(guī)模、玉米出口規(guī)模和對華玉米出口能力的國家,作為中國的潛在玉米進口來源國。然后計算潛在玉米進口來源國的玉米生產(chǎn)的外延式潛力和內(nèi)涵式潛力,從潛在玉米進口來源國里選擇其中玉米生產(chǎn)潛力較大的國家作為中國的玉米進口來源國。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)中國的玉米進口來源國是:阿根廷、巴西、法國、匈牙利、巴拉圭、羅馬尼亞、俄羅斯、南非、烏克蘭和美國。玉米進口來源國玉米生產(chǎn)外延式潛力合計75184萬噸,內(nèi)涵式潛力為9014萬噸。研究內(nèi)容二:玉米進口來源國玉米生產(chǎn)影響因素分析。相對收益是影響玉米種植面積變化的主要因素。對玉米種植面積影響因素分析發(fā)現(xiàn),小麥、大豆前一期價格上漲會導(dǎo)致當(dāng)期玉米種植面積減小,小麥和大豆前一期國際價格提高1%,可使當(dāng)期玉米種植面積分別減少0.191%和0.245%。前一期原油價格上漲會導(dǎo)致當(dāng)期玉米種植面積擴大,前一期原油價格提高1%,可使當(dāng)期玉米種植面積擴大0.083%。前一期玉米價格提高可以促進當(dāng)期玉米種植面積擴大。長期玉米價格彈性除了匈牙利和羅馬尼亞外均大于1,說明大多數(shù)國家玉米種植面積可以根據(jù)玉米價格變化做出調(diào)整。對玉米單產(chǎn)影響因素分析可知,技術(shù)進步、玉米新品種和化肥投入增加有助于玉米進口來源國玉米單產(chǎn)的提高。農(nóng)機投入方面,阿根廷、巴拉圭、俄羅斯和南非單位面積擁有的農(nóng)機數(shù)量較少�；释度敕矫�,阿根廷、巴拉圭、羅馬尼亞、俄羅斯、南非和烏克蘭單位面積使用量較小�；屎娃r(nóng)機投入的增加將有助于上述國家玉米單產(chǎn)的提高,促進玉米生產(chǎn)潛力的開發(fā)。阿根廷、巴西巴拉圭等國基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施不足是制約玉米生產(chǎn)潛力開發(fā)的重要因素。研究內(nèi)容三:中國與玉米進口來源國合作風(fēng)險分析。玉米進口來源國羅馬尼亞、匈牙利和俄羅斯生產(chǎn)穩(wěn)定性差,玉米生產(chǎn)波動風(fēng)險高。南半球國家巴西、阿根廷、巴拉圭和南非玉米收獲時正是中國玉米“青黃不接”的時期,與這些國家合作能夠很好地熨平中國玉米供給的波動。從投資政治風(fēng)險來看,俄羅斯和烏克蘭風(fēng)險最高,阿根廷風(fēng)險近年來持續(xù)提高。從糧食禁止出口風(fēng)險來看,糧食進口可以分為口糧進口和飼料糧進口,多進口飼料糧不會過于影響糧食安全,且糧食出口國忌憚于失去大的糧食市場。越是加大進口的同時應(yīng)當(dāng)越重視國內(nèi)口糧的生產(chǎn),同時可以逐步開放玉米等飼料糧的進口,從而在糧食安全和比較優(yōu)勢之間找到平衡點。玉米進口來源國中,美國、法國和阿根廷玉米玉米出口穩(wěn)定性在逐漸下降。巴西、法國、羅馬尼亞、南非和烏克蘭玉米出口行為屬于“價差型出口”,國內(nèi)外玉米價差有助于提高玉米出口產(chǎn)量比;原油價格上升會促使美國、法國和南非玉米出口產(chǎn)量比下降。研究內(nèi)容四:中國與玉米進口來源國生產(chǎn)與貿(mào)易合作策略研究。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),玉米進口來源國在玉米出口上具有比較優(yōu)勢,中國在氮肥、磷肥和復(fù)合肥出口上擁有比較優(yōu)勢。在氮肥出口上,中國與阿根廷、巴西、法國、匈牙利、南非和美國貿(mào)易空間較大;在磷肥出口上,中國與巴西、法國、巴拉圭、羅馬尼亞和美國的貿(mào)易空間較大;在復(fù)合肥出口上,中國與阿根廷、巴西、法國、匈牙利、巴拉圭和烏克蘭的貿(mào)易空間較大。中國通過向上述國家在相應(yīng)化肥品種肥料上加大出口,能夠有效滿足各國化肥進口需要,促進玉米產(chǎn)量提高,并能夠通過玉米生產(chǎn)合作,促進形成產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈一體化,增強玉米對華出口穩(wěn)定性。根據(jù)以上研究內(nèi)容,本文提出了創(chuàng)新國際玉米生產(chǎn)資源利用機制以及實施差別化的對外合作戰(zhàn)略的政策建議,針對不同地區(qū)的玉米進口來源國玉米產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈各環(huán)節(jié)的不同特點,實施各有側(cè)重的生產(chǎn)合作與貿(mào)易策略。
[Abstract]:The problem of food security is a major strategic issue related to the beneficial to the people's livelihood reform and opening up thirty years, Chinese grain production has made remarkable achievements, but with the further development of China economy, especially the contradiction between supply and demand of maize grain China have become increasingly prominent. In ensuring that the bowl in his hands under the premise of "rely on foreign corn production resources security China corn supply is becoming more and more important. At the same time, more and more international grain market risk, Chinese corn imports will face greater uncertainty in the future. How to establish a stable and reliable security system to ensure the stability of imported grain, corn imports sources and sustainability, become the key of rational use of production resources abroad. In order to ensure the stability of Chinese corn maize imports the source and persistence, first of all, should make clear the distribution of production resources overseas corn, estimates of different countries The corn production and export potential, determine the target area by using foreign corn production resources. Secondly, the use of overseas agricultural resources should be extended to the upper reaches of the industrial chain. The developed countries agricultural company's experience shows that using foreign agricultural resources more extended to the upstream industry chain, stability and continuity of the import of agricultural products better. Therefore the use of overseas agricultural resources should be upstream - transport links, links from the product trade link to the agricultural industrial chain production, prenatal link extension must be examined. Therefore the target area of corn transportation, the status and characteristics of planting and prenatal links, so as to promote the Chinese and target countries to achieve industrial cooperation in the upstream of the corn industry chain. Note that the study objectives of regional resource production overseas corn using relevant risk. Based on the information provided at the above two, For different target areas are put forward to use, so as to ensure the China can be sustained, stable access to overseas corn supply. On the above goals, specifically is to answer the following questions: the world which countries have the potential to produce corn is bigger, in the future can be sustained and stable to meet the needs China corn imports, thus becoming the country the source of China corn imports? Those countries have the potential of maize production, their corn production factors which influence? What factors restricting the development of maize production potential is? In transportation, corn industry chain production processes, prenatal links, are there any negative factors restricting the development of corn production potential if China? From these countries to expand imports of corn, Chinese can according to its own comparative advantage, realize the production of corn industry chain cooperation and China if this? Some countries to carry out cooperation in trade and production of corn, which have the cooperation risk? To solve these problems, the production potential of corn Chinese source of imports of corn, influence factors and development potential of trade policy system, mainly includes the following four aspects: research contents: a China corn import source country first choice. The global net corn exporters, choose to have a certain scale of potential arable land, corn export scale and export capacity of the country's corn, as potential sources of corn imports. China then calculate the corn production potential and extensive connotation of potential source of imports of corn, corn from the potential source of imports in the corn production potential larger countries as sources of imports of corn. The study found that China corn import source country China is: Argentina, Brazil, France, Hungary, Pakistan Uruguay, Romania, Russia, South Africa, Ukraine and the United States. The extension of maize production potential of corn import sources total 751 million 840 thousand tons, 90 million 140 thousand tons of connotative potential. Research content two: analysis of the factors affecting maize import source country corn production. The relative income is affected corn acreage change of main factors on corn planting area impact analysis showed that the previous period of wheat, soybean prices will lead to the corn planting area is reduced, the previous period of wheat and soybean international prices increased by 1%, the current corn acreage decreased before a period of 0.191% and 0.245%. crude oil prices will lead to the current corn acreage, a 1% increase in the price of crude oil that can make the current corn acreage before a 0.083%. corn price increase can promote the current corn acreage of corn. The long-term price elasticity in addition to Hungary Li and Romania are greater than 1, indicating that most of the national corn planting area can be adjusted according to the change of the price of corn. Corn yield factors influence analysis, technological progress, new varieties of maize and fertilizer contributes to the increase of maize yield of maize source of imports increased. Agricultural inputs, Argentina, Paraguay, Russia and South Africa unit the area has a smaller number. Agricultural fertilizer, Argentina, Paraguay, Romania, Russia, South Africa and Ukraine. A small amount of fertilizer use per unit area and the increase of agricultural inputs will help the country yield improvement, promote the development of corn production potential. Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and other countries lack of infrastructure is important factors restricting the development and production potential of maize. Three research contents: analysis of Chinese cooperation risk and corn import source country corn imports. The source in Romania, Hungary and Russia production stability, corn production is high. The risk of fluctuations in the southern hemisphere countries of Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and South Africa at the corn harvest is Chinese corn "lean" period, in cooperation with these countries can be well ironed flat in China's corn supply fluctuations. From the view of investment political risk, Russia Ukraine and Argentina in recent years the highest risk, the risk continues to increase. From the grain export ban risk, imported food can be divided into food and feed grain imports, imports of feed grain will not be too much impact on food security, and food exporters fear lost large grain market. The more increase at the same time should pay more attention to domestic and imported the rations production, while imports can gradually open corn and other feed grains, so as to find a balance between food security and comparative advantage. The sources of imports of corn Junior high school, the United States, France and Argentina corn export stability has gradually decreased. Brazil, France, Romania, South Africa and Ukraine corn export behavior belongs to the spread of export, domestic corn price is helpful to improve the yield of corn export ratio; crude oil prices rise will lead to the United States, France and South Africa export corn yield ratio decreased. Four research contents: Chinese and corn import source country production and trade cooperation strategies. The study found that corn import source country has a comparative advantage in the export of corn, China in nitrogen, phosphate and compound fertilizer has a comparative advantage in export exports. N, Chinese and Argentina, Brazil, France, Hungary, South Africa and the United States a larger space in the fertilizer export trade; and Chinese, Brazil, France, Paraguay, Romania and the United States trade in large space; compound fertilizer exports, China and Argentina, Pakistan The west, France, Hungary, Paraguay and Ukraine. Chinese trade larger space through to these countries to increase exports in the corresponding fertilizer fertilizer, fertilizer import countries can meet the need for effective, promote corn production increased, and through the corn production cooperation, promote the formation of industrial chain integration, enhance the stability of corn exports to China according to the above research. The contents, this paper presents the mechanism of using the resources of production innovation and international cooperation strategy of International Maize and the implementation of differentiated policies, according to different characteristics of each link in different regions of the sources of imports of corn industry chain jade meters each, the implementation of cooperation and trade strategy focused on the production.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F316.11;F746
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本文編號：1408117