本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)的預(yù)測(cè)與評(píng)價(jià)方法研究　出處：《合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 預(yù)測(cè) 狀態(tài)熵 評(píng)價(jià) 深度學(xué)習(xí) 降維 威布爾分布

【摘要】：隨著科學(xué)技術(shù)的發(fā)展,尤其是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和計(jì)算機(jī)通信等技術(shù)的進(jìn)步與深入應(yīng)用,人們已經(jīng)不可避免地身處在數(shù)據(jù)海洋里,無(wú)論是日常生活還是企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng),數(shù)據(jù)都無(wú)時(shí)無(wú)刻地產(chǎn)生著。數(shù)據(jù)的產(chǎn)生渠道不斷地增加,使得人們獲取數(shù)據(jù)的方式變得越來(lái)越容易,相應(yīng)的成本也不斷地降低,但是同樣地,數(shù)據(jù)量的增加和數(shù)據(jù)形態(tài)的日益復(fù)雜導(dǎo)致了數(shù)據(jù)的利用變得越來(lái)越困難,如何有效處理和利用數(shù)據(jù),使數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)揮出其應(yīng)有的作用,為人類生活和社會(huì)發(fā)展提供強(qiáng)大的支持等問(wèn)題已成為當(dāng)前社會(huì)各界討論的焦點(diǎn)。隨著數(shù)據(jù)問(wèn)題的不斷升溫,全球?qū)W術(shù)界、工業(yè)界甚至各國(guó)政府都高度關(guān)注相關(guān)的數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù),數(shù)據(jù)科學(xué)也逐漸成為了一門(mén)新的研究科學(xué)。由于數(shù)據(jù)的合理利用不僅可以服務(wù)大眾,而且可以為企業(yè)帶來(lái)巨大的商業(yè)價(jià)值,因此數(shù)據(jù)被稱為“未來(lái)的新石油”,未來(lái)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)焦點(diǎn)將聚焦于對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)的占有、控制和運(yùn)用上。雖然數(shù)據(jù)的重要性得到了世界的公認(rèn),但是由于社會(huì)發(fā)展的不平衡,國(guó)內(nèi)許多企業(yè)仍然無(wú)法享受數(shù)據(jù)為其帶來(lái)的利益,這些企業(yè)在數(shù)據(jù)的使用上仍然處于初始階段,相應(yīng)的企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)仍然保持著“沉睡”的狀態(tài)。本文在廣泛收集和綜合分析國(guó)內(nèi)外企業(yè)對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)處理和使用過(guò)程中各方面研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)相應(yīng)企業(yè)進(jìn)行了深入調(diào)研,結(jié)合企業(yè)目前在數(shù)據(jù)處理和使用過(guò)程中存在的一些問(wèn)題,確定了本文的研究方向。首先,針對(duì)企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)復(fù)雜度和數(shù)據(jù)維度不斷增加、企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)應(yīng)用困難等問(wèn)題,本文對(duì)相關(guān)的數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)處理方法進(jìn)行了研究；其次,針對(duì)企業(yè)成本控制和客戶關(guān)系管理問(wèn)題,本文通過(guò)對(duì)實(shí)際問(wèn)題的分析和相應(yīng)數(shù)據(jù)的處理,對(duì)基于企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)的預(yù)測(cè)問(wèn)題進(jìn)行了研究：最后,為了提高企業(yè)管理的有效性和科學(xué)性,本文研究了基于企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)的評(píng)價(jià)問(wèn)題。本文的具體研究?jī)?nèi)容和創(chuàng)新性工作主要有以下幾點(diǎn)：1為了有效利用企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù),針對(duì)企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)的特點(diǎn),首先本文根據(jù)差異最大化思想,構(gòu)建了相應(yīng)的降維方法;其次本文研究了基于融合空間思想的線性降維方法。通過(guò)相關(guān)實(shí)驗(yàn)表明,本文構(gòu)建的數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)處理方法有助于企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)的有效利用。2本文在深入研究深度學(xué)習(xí)模型原理的基礎(chǔ)上,研究并構(gòu)建了基于企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)的交叉混合和順序混合的深度學(xué)習(xí)結(jié)構(gòu),同時(shí)為了驗(yàn)證模型的有效性,本文通過(guò)收集和整理相關(guān)的企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù),抽取了相應(yīng)的數(shù)據(jù)集,并利用本文構(gòu)建的模型對(duì)某電信企業(yè)客戶忠誠(chéng)度問(wèn)題進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)研究,通過(guò)相應(yīng)的仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)與比較分析表明,本文設(shè)計(jì)的順序混合深度學(xué)習(xí)模型具有相對(duì)較好的效果。3本文基于CART分類器的分類誤差自動(dòng)調(diào)節(jié)Boosting算法相關(guān)權(quán)重的思想,研究并構(gòu)建了一種基于企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)的優(yōu)化預(yù)測(cè)模型,同時(shí)本文在利用該模型對(duì)某電信企業(yè)客戶離網(wǎng)問(wèn)題進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)時(shí),采用了直方圖檢驗(yàn)和卡方檢驗(yàn)相結(jié)合的方法對(duì)模型輸入屬性的相關(guān)性進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn)。通過(guò)相應(yīng)的仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)表明,本文構(gòu)建的模型具有相對(duì)較好的效果。4本文通過(guò)對(duì)維修過(guò)程的深入分析研究,結(jié)合更新過(guò)程和更新理論對(duì)零部件的更換問(wèn)題進(jìn)行本質(zhì)性描述,構(gòu)建了基于企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)的更換率預(yù)測(cè)方法,在對(duì)MRO企業(yè)零部件更換率預(yù)測(cè)過(guò)程中,本文通過(guò)對(duì)企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)的轉(zhuǎn)換,擬合出零部件更換的概率分布,同時(shí)利用最小二乘法對(duì)相應(yīng)的威布爾分布的參數(shù)進(jìn)行估計(jì)。將零部件更換率與維修BOM信息結(jié)合,可以有效控制MRO企業(yè)成本,為精益MRO提供支持。5本文在分析研究企業(yè)管理評(píng)價(jià)問(wèn)題時(shí),將評(píng)價(jià)問(wèn)題與動(dòng)態(tài)系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)的變化問(wèn)題相結(jié)合,提出了一種基于狀態(tài)熵的評(píng)價(jià)模型,并對(duì)狀態(tài)熵計(jì)算公式進(jìn)行了相應(yīng)的數(shù)學(xué)推導(dǎo),通過(guò)計(jì)算評(píng)價(jià)目標(biāo)在系統(tǒng)中的狀態(tài)熵可以確定評(píng)價(jià)目標(biāo)的綜合績(jī)效。同時(shí)本文將該模型應(yīng)用于MRO企業(yè)供應(yīng)商評(píng)價(jià)問(wèn)題中,從MRO企業(yè)角度出發(fā),利用平衡積分卡法構(gòu)建了相應(yīng)的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,并利用網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析方法對(duì)相應(yīng)的指標(biāo)權(quán)重進(jìn)行處理。通過(guò)利用企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行相應(yīng)的仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)表明,本文設(shè)計(jì)的模型具有一定有效性。
[Abstract]:With the development of science and technology, especially the Internet and computer communication technology and the in-depth application, people are inevitably in the ocean, whether in daily life or production and business activities of enterprises, the data are generated. Every hour and moment channel data is constantly increasing, so that people get the data becoming more easily, the cost has been greatly reduced, but also, the increase in the amount of data and data form has led to increasingly complex data by becoming more and more difficult, how to effectively use data processing and data, to play its due role, provide strong support for human life and social development. Has become the focus of discussion in the community. With the data of rising global academia, industry and governments are highly concerned about the related Data technology, data science has gradually become a new scientific research. Because of the rational use of data can not only serve the public, but also can bring huge commercial value for the enterprise, so the data is called "the future of the new oil, the focus of competition in the future will focus on data share, control and use. Although the importance of data has been recognized the world, but because of the uneven social development, many domestic enterprises are still unable to enjoy the data for the benefits of these enterprises is still in the initial stage in the use of data, business data corresponding to the remains of" sleeping "state. Based on the extensive collection and comprehensive analysis of domestic and foreign enterprises on the basis of the research results of data processing and use of the process, the corresponding enterprises conducted in-depth research, combined with the enterprises in the data processing and the Some of the problems existing in the process, determine the research direction of this paper. Firstly, according to the enterprise data complexity and data dimension increasing, enterprise data application problems, the pretreatment methods for relevant data; secondly, according to the enterprise cost control and customer relationship management, this paper according to the actual the analysis of the problems and the corresponding data, the prediction based on data from the company were studied. Finally, in order to improve the scientific and effective management of enterprises, this paper studies the problem of evaluation of enterprise based on data. The specific contents and innovative work are mainly as follows: 1 in order to make effective use of enterprise data. According to the characteristics of enterprise data, firstly, according to the difference of the idea of maximizing, construct the corresponding dimensionality reduction method; secondly this paper researches the integration of spatial thinking based on line Dimensionality reduction method. The experiments show that the data preprocessing method in this paper is helpful to the effective use of.2 based enterprise data learning model principle in-depth research in depth on the basis of the research and the construction of the enterprise data and order mixed cross mixing depth study based on the structure, at the same time in order to verify the validity of the model. In this paper, through the collection and collation of enterprise data, extract the corresponding data set, and the problem of customer loyalty to a telecom enterprise is predicted using the model constructed in this paper, through the simulation experiment, the corresponding analysis and comparison show that the order of mixed deep learning the design of this model has a better effect in this paper.3 Boosting automatic adjustment the algorithm weights of classification error of CART classifier based on the idea, and establish a forecasting model for the optimization of enterprise based on the data, at the same time In this paper, using the model of a telecom enterprise customer churn prediction problem, by using the method of histogram test and chi square test combined with the correlation of the model input attributes are examined. Through the corresponding simulation experiments show that the model has a relatively thorough analysis and Research on the maintenance process through better effect.4 in this paper, combined with the theory of renewal process and update the replacement problem on parts of the nature description, constructs the prediction method of replacement rate based on enterprise data, in the replacement rate of MRO parts enterprises in the process of prediction based on conversion of enterprise data, fitting out the probability distribution of replacement parts, and the corresponding parameters of Weibull distribution are estimated by the least square method. The parts replacement rate and maintenance of BOM information, can effectively control the cost of MRO company, to provide for the lean MRO Support.5 based on the analysis of the problems of evaluation of enterprise management, the problem will be evaluation problem and the dynamic system of the change of state combination, this paper puts forward a model of condition evaluation based on entropy and state entropy formula of mathematical derivation, the comprehensive performance evaluation by the state entropy calculation targets in the system can determine the evaluation at the same time, the problems of the target. The model is applied to the MRO supplier evaluation, starting from the MRO enterprise perspective, using the balanced scorecard method to construct the corresponding evaluation index system, and deal with the corresponding index weight using the network analysis method. Simulation results show that by using the corresponding data of the enterprise, the design of the model has a certain effectiveness.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F272

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