本文關(guān)鍵詞：氣候變暖背景下中國農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害致災(zāi)因子、風(fēng)險性特征及其影響機制研究　出處：《蘭州大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 中國 農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害 致災(zāi)因子 風(fēng)險性特征 影響機制

【摘要】：干旱是我國發(fā)生頻次最高、影響范圍最廣、造成損失最嚴(yán)重的自然災(zāi)害之一。隨著氣候變暖,我國干旱發(fā)生了顯著的變化,不僅原本一直干旱的北方地區(qū)干旱災(zāi)害加重,而且,南方的極端干旱事件也呈增加趨勢,干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險不斷加劇。在全球氣候變暖背景下,干旱災(zāi)害正以新的氣候常態(tài)發(fā)生在中國各個區(qū)域,對社會經(jīng)濟和農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)造成了嚴(yán)重損失。由于干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險影響因素及其機制復(fù)雜且具有區(qū)域差異性,而且風(fēng)險因子之間相互作用,導(dǎo)致干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險區(qū)域差異性更明顯。我國氣候類型復(fù)雜多樣,屬于全球氣候變暖的敏感區(qū)之一。而且,農(nóng)業(yè)是氣候變暖的敏感行業(yè),也是干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險的主要承災(zāi)對象。在氣候變暖背景下,干旱災(zāi)害對中國農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)造成更加嚴(yán)重的影響,農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險不斷擴大。本研究以我國干旱災(zāi)害致災(zāi)因子、風(fēng)險性特征及其影響機制為研究切入點,以氣象綜合干旱指數(shù)(MCI)為干旱致災(zāi)因子表征指標(biāo),研究我國干旱時空分布特征及其區(qū)域差異性�；陲L(fēng)險因子耦合模擬和歷史干旱災(zāi)損概率統(tǒng)計兩種風(fēng)險評估方法,研究中國農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險性特征。闡述不同時段關(guān)鍵氣候物理要素對風(fēng)險的影響,揭示氣候變暖對農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害損失的影響,明確中國干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險關(guān)鍵影響期。研究成果為提升我國干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估、防災(zāi)減災(zāi)能力和風(fēng)險管理水平提供科學(xué)依據(jù),主要結(jié)論如下:(1)充分認(rèn)識了中國干旱時空變化特征、演變規(guī)律和區(qū)域差異性�；�1961-2014年逐日MCI,系統(tǒng)分析了我國干旱時空變化特征。研究表明,氣候變暖背景下,中國干旱范圍擴大、程度加劇和頻次增加。同時,干旱發(fā)生的范圍發(fā)生了明顯的轉(zhuǎn)移,北方干旱加劇的同時,南方干旱明顯加重,尤其是大旱范圍明顯增加。中國上世紀(jì)90年代中后期-21世紀(jì)初期干旱范圍最廣、持續(xù)時間最長,造成的損失最嚴(yán)重。中國干旱主要發(fā)生在黃河流域以南和長江以北地區(qū)。干旱頻次北方高于南方,東部高于西部,長江流域以北干旱頻次較高,黃河流域干旱頻次大于30%。但不同年代,干旱發(fā)生范圍、程度、頻次和持續(xù)時間有一定的差異性。(2)基于風(fēng)險因子耦合法,構(gòu)建了綜合農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估模型,并在中國西南地區(qū)進行案例研究。基于gis和rs技術(shù),融合氣象綜合干旱指數(shù)(mci)、遙感反演的土壤濕度、植被指數(shù)、干旱災(zāi)情和農(nóng)業(yè)統(tǒng)計等多源數(shù)據(jù)。綜合考慮干旱災(zāi)害致災(zāi)因子、承災(zāi)體、孕災(zāi)環(huán)境和防災(zāi)減災(zāi)能力,構(gòu)建農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估模型。在gis平臺下,實現(xiàn)了西南地區(qū)干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險精細化評估。同時,根據(jù)歷史干旱災(zāi)害損失概率統(tǒng)計計算干旱災(zāi)害綜合損失率。將風(fēng)險因子耦合模擬和歷史災(zāi)損統(tǒng)計法相結(jié)合,系統(tǒng)分析西南農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險特征及其影響機制。研究表明,西南農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害綜合風(fēng)險具有明顯的地帶性。農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害高風(fēng)險區(qū)主要位于西南東部,北部高于南部。不同的致災(zāi)因子、承災(zāi)體、孕災(zāi)環(huán)境和防災(zāi)減災(zāi)能力差異導(dǎo)致農(nóng)業(yè)干旱綜合風(fēng)險格局復(fù)雜。(3)系統(tǒng)分析了中國農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)損率變化特征、南北區(qū)域差異及其對氣候變暖的響應(yīng)�；跉v史干旱災(zāi)損構(gòu)建干旱災(zāi)害受災(zāi)率、成災(zāi)率、絕收率和綜合損失率,分析近50多年中國干旱災(zāi)害損失及南北差異性。研究表明,氣候變暖背景下,中國干旱受災(zāi)率、成災(zāi)率、絕收率和綜合損失率都呈增加趨勢。農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害損失的范圍和程度均明顯增加,風(fēng)險顯著加大,尤其是成災(zāi)以上干旱損失增速更快。受氣候變暖的影響,中國南方和北方農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害損失差異明顯。氣候突變后,北方農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害損失明顯高于南方,增幅也比南方快,北方災(zāi)害損失增幅是南方的3~4倍,而且干旱損失越重,增幅越快。北方干旱災(zāi)害損失主要依賴降水,而南方對溫度的依賴程度比北方大。不同時段降水和溫度對農(nóng)業(yè)干旱損失的影響不同,只有關(guān)鍵時段的降水和氣溫對農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害損失率具有更顯著的影響。中國7月下旬、9月中旬降水量和6月上旬氣溫對農(nóng)業(yè)干旱損失至關(guān)重要。(4)闡明中國七個子區(qū)域干旱災(zāi)害損失變化特征。在氣候變暖背景下,不同等級干旱災(zāi)害損失變化具有明顯的區(qū)域差異性。東北綜合損失率多年平均值最大(9.6%),其次為華北(9.3%)和西北(8.4%),華東最小(2.4%)。華北綜合損失率增幅最大,為1.4%/10a。氣候突變后,西北、華北和西南受災(zāi)率呈增加趨勢,而東北、華中、華南和華東降低;成災(zāi)率和絕收率各區(qū)域均增加;綜合損失率除華中外,其它區(qū)域均增加。氣候變暖背景下,中國各區(qū)域干旱災(zāi)害損失呈增加趨勢,越重的災(zāi)害對氣候變暖越敏感。綜合損失率在氣候空間的分布區(qū)域差異性顯著。(5)系統(tǒng)分析了干旱對中國主要糧食作物產(chǎn)量的影響。氣候變暖總體不利于中國主要糧食作物產(chǎn)量增加,但不同作物對氣候變暖的響應(yīng)略有差異。氣候變暖對夏糧、玉米和稻谷不利,尤其是玉米,平均減產(chǎn)0.9kg/10a。中國糧食作物隨氣象干旱程度的增加趨于減產(chǎn),尤其是秋糧作物。冬小麥和稻谷隨著氣象干旱程度加重趨于減產(chǎn),而夏糧、春小麥、玉米和馬鈴薯與氣象干旱的響應(yīng)不明顯。(6)明確了中國農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險關(guān)鍵影響期。中國干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險關(guān)鍵影響期為春末、夏季和秋季前中期,8月達到峰值。北方干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險關(guān)鍵影響期與中國一致,南方為夏季和秋季前中期,8月關(guān)鍵期的作用最突出。北方關(guān)鍵影響期較南方長,作用比南方更突出。中國各子區(qū)域干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險關(guān)鍵影響期的長短和作用具有顯著的區(qū)域差異性。西北、東北、華北、華中和華東為單峰型,西南和華南為雙峰型。華北、東北和華南。東北、華南和華北關(guān)鍵影響期較長。華北、東北、華中和華東夏季關(guān)鍵影響期作用最突出,西北和華南為春季,西南為夏季和冬季中后期。關(guān)鍵影響期不僅與干旱發(fā)生時間有關(guān),更與作物種植結(jié)構(gòu)、類型、生育期和抗旱能力有關(guān)。
[Abstract]:Drought is China's highest frequency, the most affected area, one of the most serious losses caused by natural disasters. With climate warming, significant changes have taken place in China's arid northern region, not only the drought disaster had been drought and extreme drought events increased, the South also showed an increasing trend, increasing drought disaster risk. Under the background of global warming, drought disaster is a new climate normal occurred in each region China, caused serious damage to the social economy and agricultural production. Because of the influence of drought disaster risk factors and its mechanism is complex and has regional differences, and the interaction between risk factors, differences in regional drought disaster risk is more obvious the climate types in China. One of the complex, belongs to sensitive area of global warming. Moreover, agriculture is a sensitive industry climate warming, and drought disaster risk The main disaster object. Under the background of climate warming, drought disasters caused more serious impact on agricultural production Chinese, agricultural drought disaster risk is expanding. In this study, China's drought disaster factors, characteristics and influence mechanism of risk as the research point to gas as comprehensive drought index (MCI) of disaster factor index for drought, temporal and spatial distribution of drought and its regional differences in China. The evaluation method of risk factors and historical drought disaster damage coupling simulation of two kinds of risk probability and statistics based on the study of China agricultural drought disaster risk characteristics are described. The effects of different periods of physical key climate elements of risk, reveal the impact of climate warming on agricultural drought disaster, drought disaster risk Chinese key clear effect. Research results to improve the drought disaster risk assessment in China, disaster prevention and mitigation capacity and risk management Providing a scientific basis, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) to fully understand the Chinese arid spatial and temporal variation characteristics, evolution and regional differences. 1961-2014 daily MCI based on the systematic analysis of the temporal and spatial variation features of drought in China. The results show that under the background of global warming, drought China scope, intensification and increasing frequency. At the same time, obviously the transfer range of drought, severe drought in northern and southern drought was aggravated, especially drought in the area was significantly increased. The late last century in 90s China -21 century drought scope, the longest, the most serious losses. China drought occurred mainly in the south of the Yellow River and the area north of the Yangtze River. The drought frequency is higher in the north than in the south, the east than the west, in the north of Yangtze River Basin drought frequency in the Yellow River basin drought frequency is greater than 30%. but not the same year, the drought The scope, extent, duration and frequency have certain difference. (2) based on risk factor coupling, comprehensive agricultural drought disaster risk assessment model is constructed, and a case study is conducted in the southwest region of China. GIS and RS technology based on the integration of comprehensive drought index (MCI), soil moisture, vegetation remote sensing inversion index, multi-source data of drought disaster and agricultural statistics. Considering the drought disaster factors, disaster mitigation, disaster environment and disaster prevention, agricultural drought disaster risk assessment model is constructed. Under the GIS platform, the Southwest drought disaster risk fine assessment. At the same time, according to the historical drought disaster loss probability the statistical calculation of comprehensive loss rate of drought disaster. Combining the risk factor and historical disaster damage coupled simulation statistics, system analysis of southwest agricultural drought disaster risk characteristics and its influence mechanism. The research shows that the Southwest Comprehensive agricultural drought risk has obvious zonality. The high risk areas of agricultural drought disaster are mainly located in the southwest of the East, the north is higher than the south. Different disaster causing factors, hazard bearing body, the difference ability of disaster environment and disaster prevention and mitigation in the agricultural drought risk comprehensive pattern complex. (3) analyzed the variation characteristics of agricultural China rate drought disaster, spatial differences and its response to climate warming. The historical drought disaster construction of drought disaster disaster rate, based on the hazard rate, rate of crops and comprehensive loss rate, nearly 50 years of drought disaster losses and China differences between the southern and Northern analysis. Research shows that, under the background of global warming, Chinese drought disaster disaster rate, rate. The rate of crops and comprehensive loss rate increased. The range and extent of the losses of agricultural drought disaster was significantly increased, the risk increased significantly, especially in the above drought loss growth faster. Affected by climate change Warm effect, Chinese South and North agricultural drought disaster losses significantly. Climate change after the northern agricultural drought disaster loss was significantly higher than that of the south, also increased than in the south, the North disaster loss is 3~4 times increase in the south, and more severe drought loss, increase more quickly. The north drought disaster losses mainly depends on precipitation, and the temperature dependence on the South than in the north. The effects of different periods of precipitation and temperature on agricultural drought losses of different precipitation and temperature only the key period has more significant influence on agricultural drought disaster loss rate. China temperature in late July, mid September and early June precipitation is crucial to agricultural drought damage. (4) stated the change of seven sub regional drought disaster losses Chinese characteristics. Under the background of climate warming, have significant regional differences in different grades of drought disaster losses. The loss rate of Northeast The annual average maximum (9.6%), followed by China (9.3%) and Northwest (8.4%), East (2.4%). The minimum comprehensive loss rate of the largest increase in North China, 1.4%/10a. climate change, northwest, North and southwest disaster rate showed an increasing trend, while the northeast, central, East Southern China and reduce the disaster rate of crops; and the rate of each area increased; comprehensive loss rate in China and other regions, were increased. Under the background of global warming, the regional drought disaster China showed an increasing trend, the more heavy disasters more sensitive to climate warming. The difference distribution of regional comprehensive loss rate in climate space significantly. (5) analyzed the influence drought on main grain crop yield. Chinese climate warming is not conducive to the overall China main grain crop yield increased, but the response of different crops to climate warming is slightly different. Climate warming on summer corn and rice, unfavorable, especially corn, the average yield of 0.9 Kg/10a. China grain crop production with the degree of drought weather tends to increase, especially for grain crops. Wheat and rice with meteorological drought severity tends to cut, and summer, spring wheat, corn and potato and the meteorological drought response is not obvious. (6) defined the agricultural drought disaster risk China key period. Effects of drought Chinese effect disaster risk critical period for late spring, summer and autumn before mid August peak. The drought disaster risk North key influence period and Chinese, South for the summer and autumn before the mid August, the most prominent key role. The North South long period is the key influence, more prominent role than the south. Chinese sub drought disaster regional risk key influence period and has significant differences between different regions. In the northwest, northeast, north, central and East China is unimodal, southwest and Southern China to Shuangfeng. The North China and Northeast China. South. The northeast, North China and Southern China key influence over a long period of time. In North China, northeast, central and East China in summer, the most prominent key influencing period, northwest and Southern China in spring, summer and winter in the southwest. The late period of drought and the key influence not only on time, and crop planting structure, type, growth period and related the ability of drought resistance.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：S423

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