【摘要】：人類(lèi)社會(huì)進(jìn)程的快速發(fā)展給人類(lèi)生活帶來(lái)了嚴(yán)重的生態(tài)環(huán)境危機(jī),資源、環(huán)境和人口問(wèn)題成為自然、經(jīng)濟(jì)與社會(huì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題。地區(qū)的水資源狀況越來(lái)越受到人們的關(guān)注,IPCC在2008年發(fā)布了"氣候變化與水資源"的技術(shù)報(bào)告,進(jìn)一步認(rèn)知水資源的現(xiàn)狀及問(wèn)題。水資源在關(guān)系著糧食安全的同時(shí)也對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)作和人類(lèi)生活產(chǎn)生影響。其中黃河流域的水資源問(wèn)題較為嚴(yán)重,水資源供給不平衡,存在水土流失的情況,斷流現(xiàn)象也時(shí)常發(fā)生,而黃河上游的流量占整個(gè)流域的38%,因此黃河上游水文過(guò)程及要素的研究對(duì)黃河流域水資源的管理與保護(hù)至關(guān)重要。許多學(xué)者對(duì)黃河上游區(qū)域的水資源有較多的研究,多是基于統(tǒng)計(jì)分析方法,缺乏物理機(jī)制,同時(shí)對(duì)未來(lái)徑流的變化采用情景假設(shè)的方案,具有較大的不確定性。SWAT水文模型不僅具有較強(qiáng)的物理機(jī)制,同時(shí)兼有分布計(jì)算的特點(diǎn),能考慮到地理要素在空間分布的差異性,能夠詳細(xì)地模擬物質(zhì)循環(huán)及水文循化過(guò)程。因此本文以DEM數(shù)據(jù)、土地利用、土壤數(shù)據(jù)和氣候數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),構(gòu)建適用于黃河上游區(qū)域的SWAT模型,并對(duì)該研究區(qū)域的水文循環(huán)過(guò)程及水文要素進(jìn)行模擬,還基于未來(lái)的氣候數(shù)據(jù)(2041年-2060年)對(duì)黃河上游區(qū)域未來(lái)的徑流和水文要素進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),并對(duì)現(xiàn)在及未來(lái)的水資源狀況進(jìn)行分析,也進(jìn)一步分析了在徑流變化過(guò)程中人類(lèi)活動(dòng)與氣候變化的相對(duì)貢獻(xiàn)。本文的主要結(jié)論如下:(1)在建立研究區(qū)域的屬性數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)及對(duì)模型中的參數(shù)率定后,構(gòu)建了適用于黃河上游區(qū)域的SWAT水文模型,能較好的對(duì)水文過(guò)程及要素進(jìn)行模擬。(2)降水相比較于融雪是黃河上游水量的主要來(lái)源,在水量平衡過(guò)程中,蒸發(fā)是決定性因素,同時(shí)也不可忽視地下水對(duì)徑流的作用。(3)未來(lái)黃河上游區(qū)域的降水呈增加趨勢(shì),溫度變化不是很顯著,氣候的變化在各個(gè)子流域變化情況有差異。(4)研究區(qū)域未來(lái)的徑流呈現(xiàn)增加趨勢(shì),月徑流的峰值有所降低,基流值升高,表明未來(lái)的徑流值呈現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定的狀態(tài),洪澇災(zāi)害有所減緩。(5)未來(lái)的降水量、蒸發(fā)量和土壤含水量增多,地下水對(duì)徑流補(bǔ)給增大,未來(lái)年內(nèi)降水更加均勻。(6)現(xiàn)在及未來(lái)研究時(shí)段的水資源都表現(xiàn)為逐漸增多,濕潤(rùn)指數(shù)也逐漸增大,未來(lái)研究區(qū)域半濕潤(rùn)地區(qū)會(huì)逐漸向濕潤(rùn)地區(qū)轉(zhuǎn)變。(7)徑流變化受到人類(lèi)活動(dòng)的影響表現(xiàn)為先增大后減少,主要集中在1990-2004年,而氣候變化對(duì)徑流變化的作用一直持續(xù)到現(xiàn)在。蒸發(fā)量相較于降水量來(lái)說(shuō),對(duì)徑流變化的影響更大。
[Abstract]:The rapid development of human society has brought serious ecological environmental crisis to human life. The problems of resources, environment and population have become the key problems of the coordinated development of economy and society. The situation of regional water resources has attracted more and more attention. In 2008, IPCC published a technical report on "Climate change and Water Resources" to further understand the current situation and problems of water resources. Water resources not only affect food security, but also affect economic operation and human life. Among them, the water resources problem in the Yellow River basin is relatively serious, the water resources supply is unbalanced, there are soil and water loss, and the phenomenon of flow breakage also occurs frequently. The discharge of the upper reaches of the Yellow River accounts for 38 percent of the whole basin, so the study of the hydrological process and elements in the upper reaches of the Yellow River is very important for the management and protection of the water resources in the Yellow River basin. Many scholars have more research on water resources in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, most of them are based on statistical analysis methods, lack of physical mechanism, and use scenario scenarios for future runoff changes. The SWAT hydrological model not only has strong physical mechanism, but also has the characteristics of distribution calculation, which can take into account the difference of geographical elements in spatial distribution, and can simulate the material cycle and hydrological process in detail. Therefore, based on DEM data, land use, soil data and climate data, this paper constructs a SWAT model suitable for the upper reaches of the Yellow River, and simulates the hydrological cycle process and hydrological elements in the study area. Based on future climate data (2041-2060), the future runoff and hydrological factors in the upper reaches of the Yellow River are also predicted, and present and future water resources are analyzed. The relative contribution of human activities to climate change in the process of runoff change is also analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) after establishing the attribute database of the study area and determining the parameter rate of the model, the SWAT hydrological model suitable for the upper reaches of the Yellow River is constructed. (2) compared with snowmelt, precipitation is the main source of water in the upper reaches of the Yellow River. Evaporation is the decisive factor in the process of water balance. At the same time, the effect of groundwater on runoff should not be ignored. (3) the precipitation in the upper reaches of the Yellow River will increase in the future, and the temperature change is not obvious. The variation of climate is different in different subbasins. (4) the future runoff of the study area shows an increasing trend, the peak value of monthly runoff decreases, the value of base flow increases, which indicates that the future runoff value shows a stable state. (5) the future precipitation, evaporation and soil water content will increase, the groundwater supply to runoff will increase, and the precipitation will be more uniform in the coming year. (6) the water resources will increase gradually in the present and future research periods. The moisture index also increases gradually, and the sub-humid area will gradually change to the humid area in the future. (7) the runoff change is affected by human activities first and then decreases, mainly from 1990 to 2004. The effects of climate change on runoff have continued to this day. Evaporation has a greater effect on runoff than precipitation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TV213.4

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本文編號(hào)：2284130