【摘要】：干旱作為世界上最常見(jiàn)、影響范圍最廣的自然災(zāi)害之一,在全球變暖的大背景下,其發(fā)生頻率和強(qiáng)度都呈增加趨勢(shì),造成的直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失和間接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失也日益加重,對(duì)社會(huì)安定和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生了深遠(yuǎn)的影響。近年來(lái),隨著國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展、人口增長(zhǎng)以及城市建設(shè)進(jìn)程加快,旱澇影響的范圍和領(lǐng)域已經(jīng)從農(nóng)業(yè)、農(nóng)村發(fā)展到城市和生態(tài)。在這樣的背景下,做好干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和管理,構(gòu)建不同地區(qū)不同作物的防災(zāi)減災(zāi)體系,減輕干旱災(zāi)害對(duì)農(nóng)作物的不利影響,對(duì)降低農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)損失,提高農(nóng)民生活水平具有重要的意義。重慶市由于其獨(dú)特的地理位置和氣候環(huán)境,各種災(zāi)害頻發(fā),加上農(nóng)業(yè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施較差,農(nóng)業(yè)資金投入較少,農(nóng)業(yè)抵御自然災(zāi)害的能力較低,全市農(nóng)作物受災(zāi)嚴(yán)重,成災(zāi)率一直高居不下。因此,研究重慶市干旱時(shí)空分布特征與規(guī)律為研究重慶市干旱的發(fā)生發(fā)展、監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)報(bào);應(yīng)對(duì)安全生產(chǎn)以及趨利避害提供科學(xué)依據(jù)和參考。本文基于重慶市地方標(biāo)準(zhǔn)《氣象災(zāi)害標(biāo)準(zhǔn)》,利用重慶市34個(gè)國(guó)家基本氣象站1961-2010年日降水量數(shù)據(jù),采用數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)方法統(tǒng)計(jì)1961-2010年重慶市34個(gè)區(qū)縣干旱類型及其等級(jí),運(yùn)用Hurst指數(shù)法、滑動(dòng)t突變檢驗(yàn)法、Morlet小波分析法進(jìn)行時(shí)間序列的分析以及運(yùn)用Arc GIS空間插值法,對(duì)季節(jié)性干旱從干旱頻率、持續(xù)天數(shù)、干旱站次比以及干旱綜合強(qiáng)度等幾個(gè)方面進(jìn)行分析,最后分析年干旱強(qiáng)度綜合指數(shù)的時(shí)空分布特征和規(guī)律。研究的主要結(jié)論如下:(1)區(qū)縣季節(jié)性干旱在時(shí)間上有不同的變化趨勢(shì),有明顯的年代際變化。近50a(1961-2010年)重慶市春旱、伏旱和冬旱持續(xù)天數(shù)呈小幅度下降趨勢(shì);夏旱、秋旱持續(xù)天數(shù)呈微弱上升趨勢(shì)。1961-2010年間,重慶市季節(jié)性干旱持續(xù)天數(shù)和干旱站次比均有明顯的年代際變化,20世紀(jì)60年代的春旱發(fā)生范圍最大,20世紀(jì)90年代的春旱發(fā)生范圍最小;20世紀(jì)90年代的夏旱發(fā)生范圍最大,20世紀(jì)70年代的夏旱發(fā)生范圍最小;20世紀(jì)70年代的伏旱發(fā)生范圍最大,20世紀(jì)80年代的伏旱發(fā)生范圍最小;20世紀(jì)80年代的秋旱發(fā)生范圍最大,21世紀(jì)初的秋旱發(fā)生范圍最小;20世紀(jì)60年代的冬旱發(fā)生范圍最大,21世紀(jì)初的冬旱發(fā)生范圍最小。(2)區(qū)縣季節(jié)性干旱頻率的空間分布差異較大。重慶市西部的潼南區(qū)、大足區(qū)、榮昌區(qū)、中部的豐都縣、忠縣和東北部的云陽(yáng)縣、巫溪縣等地是春旱發(fā)生的主要區(qū)域,春旱頻率較大;渝東南部和渝中部的長(zhǎng)壽區(qū)、萬(wàn)盛等地春旱頻率小。渝西部的潼南區(qū)、大足區(qū)、榮昌區(qū)和渝東北部的奉節(jié)縣、巫溪縣、巫山縣等地夏旱頻率較大;渝東南部和廣大的渝中部地區(qū)夏旱頻率小。重慶市西部以及中部長(zhǎng)江流域河谷地區(qū),尤其是長(zhǎng)江、嘉陵江和綦江等河谷地區(qū)是伏旱發(fā)生的主要區(qū)域,伏旱頻率高;渝東北部的城口縣和渝西南部的萬(wàn)盛等地是伏旱較輕。重慶市東北部的巫溪縣、巫山縣、奉節(jié)縣、東南部的秀山縣、酉陽(yáng)縣和西部的潼南區(qū)等地是秋旱發(fā)生主要區(qū)域,秋旱頻率較高。重慶市東北部的云陽(yáng)縣、奉節(jié)縣、巫溪縣等地是冬旱發(fā)生的主要區(qū)域,冬旱頻率較大。(3)區(qū)縣季節(jié)性干旱歷年總強(qiáng)度的空間分布差異較大。春旱歷年總強(qiáng)度的高值區(qū)主要在渝西部的潼南區(qū)、大足區(qū)、榮昌區(qū)、渝東北部的云陽(yáng)縣等地;低值區(qū)主要在渝東南部的秀山縣、酉陽(yáng)縣、渝東北部的城口縣和渝西南部的萬(wàn)盛等地。歷年夏旱總強(qiáng)度高值區(qū)在渝西部的潼南區(qū)、銅梁區(qū)、大足區(qū)、榮昌區(qū)、永川區(qū)和渝東北部的城口縣、巫溪縣等地;低值區(qū)在渝東南部的秀山縣、酉陽(yáng)縣、黔江區(qū)、彭水縣和渝中部的萬(wàn)盛、南川區(qū)、長(zhǎng)壽區(qū)、豐都縣、忠縣等地。歷年伏旱總強(qiáng)度高值區(qū)在渝西部的江津區(qū)和中部的長(zhǎng)壽區(qū)、涪陵區(qū)等地;低值區(qū)在渝中部的萬(wàn)盛和渝東北部的城口縣等地。歷年秋旱總強(qiáng)度高值區(qū)在渝東北部的云陽(yáng)縣、奉節(jié)縣、巫山縣、巫溪縣等地;低值區(qū)在渝西部的銅梁區(qū)、渝中部的巴南區(qū)、萬(wàn)盛、南川區(qū)、長(zhǎng)壽區(qū)、涪陵區(qū)、墊江縣、忠縣等地。歷年冬旱總強(qiáng)度高值區(qū)在渝東北部的云陽(yáng)縣、巫山縣、巫溪縣等地;低值區(qū)在廣大的渝中部和渝西部地區(qū)。(4)區(qū)縣年干旱強(qiáng)度在時(shí)間上呈下降趨勢(shì),多年平均干旱強(qiáng)度在空間上呈中間高、南北低的分布特征。時(shí)間特征:近50a(1961-2010年)重慶市區(qū)縣年干旱強(qiáng)度呈小幅度下降趨勢(shì)。空間分布特征:重慶市西部的潼南區(qū)、璧山區(qū)、中部的涪陵區(qū)、武隆區(qū)和渝東北部的巫溪縣、巫山縣等地年干旱強(qiáng)度大;渝中部的南川區(qū)、萬(wàn)盛、渝東南部的酉陽(yáng)縣、秀山縣和渝東北部的城口縣等地年干旱強(qiáng)度輕。(5)重慶市年干旱強(qiáng)度時(shí)間上呈下降趨勢(shì),具有明顯的階段性,存在多重時(shí)間尺度的振蕩周期。近50年(1961-2010年)重慶市年干旱強(qiáng)度呈小幅度下降趨勢(shì),變化傾向率為-7.89/10 a。重慶市年干旱在20世紀(jì)70年代強(qiáng)度最大,20世紀(jì)90年代后期干旱強(qiáng)度最小。重慶市年干旱強(qiáng)度突有1個(gè)變年份,為1979年前后的年干旱強(qiáng)度由增強(qiáng)變?yōu)闇p弱。重慶市年干旱強(qiáng)度存在準(zhǔn)2a、5a和18a三個(gè)振蕩周期,重慶市1961-2010年年干旱強(qiáng)度經(jīng)歷了弱→強(qiáng)→弱→強(qiáng)→弱→強(qiáng)幾個(gè)階段。
[Abstract]:Drought is one of the most common and widespread natural disasters in the world. Under the background of global warming, the frequency and intensity of drought are increasing. The direct and indirect economic losses caused by drought are becoming more and more serious, which have a profound impact on social stability and economic development. With the development, population growth and urban construction accelerating, the scope and fields of drought and flood have developed from agriculture, rural areas to cities and ecology. In this context, drought risk assessment and management should be well done, disaster prevention and mitigation systems should be established for different crops in different areas, and the adverse effects of drought on crops should be mitigated to reduce the impact of drought on agriculture. The loss of agricultural production and the improvement of peasants'living standards are of great significance.Because of its unique geographical location and climate environment, various disasters occur frequently, coupled with poor agricultural infrastructure, less investment in agricultural funds, low ability of agriculture to withstand natural disasters, the disaster rate of crops in Chongqing has been high. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of drought in Chongqing are studied in order to study the occurrence and development of drought in Chongqing, monitor and forecast, and provide scientific basis and reference for safe production and avoiding disasters. Statistical method was used to analyze the types and grades of drought in 34 districts and counties of Chongqing from 1961 to 2010. Hurst index method, sliding T mutation test method, Morlet wavelet analysis method were used to analyze time series and Arc GIS spatial interpolation method was used to analyze seasonal drought from drought frequency, duration days, ratio of drought stations and comprehensive drought intensity. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Seasonal drought in different districts and counties has different trends in time and has obvious Inter-decadal changes. In recent 50 years (1961-2010), the spring drought, the drought in summer and the drought in winter in Chongqing showed a small decline trend. The duration of summer drought and autumn drought showed a slight upward trend. From 1961 to 2010, the duration of seasonal drought and the ratio of drought stations in Chongqing had obvious interdecadal changes. The spring drought occurred in the 1960s was the largest, the spring drought occurred in the 1990s was the smallest; the summer drought occurred in the 1990s was the largest, and the drought occurred in the 1970s was the largest. Summer drought occurred in the smallest range; the 1970s drought occurred in the largest range, the 1980s drought occurred in the smallest range; the 1980s drought in the autumn of the 20th century the largest range, the early 21st century the smallest range; the 1960s drought in the winter of the 20th century the largest range, the early 21st century the smallest range of winter drought. (2) District and county seasonal drought. The spatial distribution of drought frequency varies greatly. Tongnan District, Dazu District, Rongchang District, Fengdu County, Zhongxian County and Yunyang County in the north-east and Wuxi County in the middle of Chongqing are the main areas where spring drought occurs, and the frequency of spring drought is relatively high. The frequency of summer drought is relatively high in Rongchang and Fengjie, Wuxi and Wushan counties in northeastern Chongqing. The frequency of summer drought is small in southeastern Chongqing and central Chongqing. Wuxi County, Wushan County, Fengjie County, Xiushan County, Youyang County and Tongnan District in the southeast of Chongqing are the main areas of autumn drought, and the frequency of autumn drought is higher. Yunyang County, Fengjie County and Wuxi County in the northeast of Chongqing are the main areas of winter drought. (3) The spatial distribution of the total seasonal drought intensity varies greatly in different districts and counties. The high value areas of the total spring drought intensity are mainly in Tongnan District, Dazu District, Rongchang District, Yunyang County in northeastern Chongqing and other places; the low value areas are mainly in Xiushan County, Youyang County, Chengkou County in northeastern Chongqing and southwestern Chongqing. The high-value areas of summer drought over the years are Tongnan District, Tongliang District, Dazu District, Rongchang District, Yongchuan District and Chengkou County and Wuxi County in the northeast of Chongqing; the low-value areas are Xiushan County, Youyang County, Qianjiang District, Pengshui County and Wansheng, Nanchuan District, Changshou District, Fengdu County and Zhongxian County in the southeast of Chongqing. The high value areas of total drought intensity in autumn are Yunyang County, Fengjie County, Wushan County and Wuxi County in the northeast of Chongqing; the low value areas are Tongliang District in the west of Chongqing, Banan District in the middle of Chongqing, and Wansheng County in the northeast of Chongqing. Sheng, Nanchuan, Changshou, Fuling, Dijiang, Zhongxian and other places. The high-value winter drought areas in Yunyang, Wushan and Wuxi counties in northeastern Chongqing; the low-value areas in the vast central and Western Chongqing. (4) The annual drought intensity of the county showed a downward trend in time, the average annual drought intensity in space was high in the middle, north and south. The annual drought intensity of Chongqing in the past 50 years (1961-2010) showed a small decline trend. Spatial distribution characteristics: Tongnan District in the west of Chongqing, Bishan District in the middle, Fuling District in the middle, Wulong District in the northeast of Chongqing, Wuxi County and Wushan County in the middle of Chongqing, Wansheng District in the middle of Chongqing and southeast of Chongqing. The annual drought intensity of Youyang County, Xiushan County and Chengkou County in the northeast of Chongqing is light. (5) The annual drought intensity of Chongqing has a downward trend in time with obvious phases and multiple time-scale oscillation cycles. The annual drought intensity in Chongqing changed from enhanced to weakened before and after 1979. There were three oscillation periods of quasi-2a, 5A and 18a in the annual drought intensity of Chongqing, and the drought intensity in 1961-2010 experienced weakening to strong. Several stages: weak, strong, weak, strong.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：P426.616

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