發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-20 14:28

  本文選題：氣候模擬 + 太陽輻射強(qiáng)迫�。� 參考：《浙江大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：自工業(yè)革命以來,人類活動(dòng)(化石燃料燃燒、土地利用等)不斷排放CO2等溫室氣體,造成全球氣候變化。大氣CO2增加產(chǎn)生的輻射強(qiáng)迫是造成全球變暖的主要原因。除了 CO2,太陽輻射、氣溶膠等也是造成全球氣候變化的重要外部強(qiáng)迫。本文以CO2強(qiáng)迫和太陽輻射強(qiáng)迫為例,利用HadCM3L氣候系統(tǒng)模式,開展了一系列的模擬試驗(yàn):(1)大氣C02濃度突然增加4倍(4×C02試驗(yàn)),這個(gè)試驗(yàn)中既考慮C02通過吸收長(zhǎng)波輻射對(duì)氣候的影響(C02的輻射效應(yīng)),又考慮C02通過影響植被氣孔性質(zhì)產(chǎn)生的氣候效應(yīng)(C02的氣孔效應(yīng));(2)大氣C02濃度突然增加4倍,但僅考慮CO2對(duì)長(zhǎng)波輻射的吸收作用,而不考慮C02對(duì)植被的作用(4×C02 atm試驗(yàn));(3)模式太陽常數(shù)突然增加4%,由1365.0 Wm-2增加到1419.6 Wm-2(4%Solar 試驗(yàn))。CO2和太陽輻射等外源強(qiáng)迫發(fā)生后,氣候系統(tǒng)的不同組成部分響應(yīng)時(shí)間不同。大氣和陸地地表具有較低的熱容量,響應(yīng)較快,而海洋熱容量較大,溫度變化較慢。近年來一些氣候變化研究將氣候系統(tǒng)對(duì)外源強(qiáng)迫的響應(yīng)區(qū)分為"快響應(yīng)"和"漸進(jìn)反饋"�？祉憫�(yīng)是指全球平均溫度,主要是海表溫度發(fā)生明顯變化之前氣候系統(tǒng)的響應(yīng);漸進(jìn)反饋是指隨著時(shí)間推移,海表溫度顯著上升后引發(fā)的氣候系統(tǒng)變化。本文從快響應(yīng)和漸進(jìn)反饋的角度出發(fā),根據(jù)HadCM3L模擬結(jié)果,系統(tǒng)研究了氣候系統(tǒng)在從外源強(qiáng)迫發(fā)生后的第1天到1000年后的連續(xù)演變過程,揭示CO2強(qiáng)迫和太陽輻射強(qiáng)迫對(duì)氣候系統(tǒng)快響應(yīng)和漸進(jìn)反饋的影響異同。根據(jù)模擬結(jié)果,在強(qiáng)迫發(fā)生后的第1天,4×C02試驗(yàn)和4%Solar試驗(yàn)中大氣層頂向下的凈輻射通量(即外源強(qiáng)迫對(duì)氣候系統(tǒng)的輻射強(qiáng)迫)分別為9.69 W m-2和6.30Wm-2,而在1000年后,氣候系統(tǒng)達(dá)到準(zhǔn)平衡狀態(tài)時(shí),全球表面平均溫度升高了 5.71 K和5.70 K,這說明對(duì)于同樣的平均地表溫度變化,所需的太陽輻射強(qiáng)迫要大于所需的C02輻射強(qiáng)迫,即CO2輻射強(qiáng)迫的效率高于太陽輻射強(qiáng)迫的效率。通過對(duì)模擬結(jié)果的分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)輻射強(qiáng)迫效率的差異主要與地氣系統(tǒng)快速調(diào)整過程中晴空長(zhǎng)波輻射的變化有關(guān)。這主要是由于C02的輻射效應(yīng)使得氣候系統(tǒng)中更多的長(zhǎng)波輻射被吸收,因此,第1年4%Solar試驗(yàn)中大氣層頂更多的晴空長(zhǎng)波逃逸到外太空。通過比較不同時(shí)間尺度上4×C02試驗(yàn)和4×CO2 atm試驗(yàn)中全球表面溫度的變化,發(fā)現(xiàn)在強(qiáng)迫發(fā)生后的第1天,4×C02試驗(yàn)中陸地表面增溫0.67 K,而4×C02 atm試驗(yàn)增溫0.25K,在強(qiáng)迫發(fā)生后1個(gè)月后,4×CO2試驗(yàn)中陸地表面增溫比4×CO2atm試驗(yàn)高將近1倍,說明強(qiáng)迫發(fā)生后的短時(shí)間尺度(大約1個(gè)月)上,CO2的氣孔效應(yīng)對(duì)地面增溫有著重要作用。大氣CO2濃度增加,使得植物葉片導(dǎo)度降低,植被蒸騰減少,潛熱釋放減少。同時(shí),陸地上空低云云量減少,到達(dá)地面的太陽輻射增加,引起地表增溫。在數(shù)年以上的時(shí)間尺度上,4×C02試驗(yàn)和4×C02atm試驗(yàn)溫度變化差距隨時(shí)間減小,模式達(dá)到準(zhǔn)平衡狀態(tài)時(shí),4×CO2試驗(yàn)和4×C02 atm試驗(yàn)的地表平均溫度為5.71 K和5.22 K,表明隨著時(shí)間的推移,4×C02試驗(yàn)中C02的輻射效應(yīng)對(duì)氣候系統(tǒng)中全球表面溫度的變化起主導(dǎo)作用。4×C02試驗(yàn)和4%Solar試驗(yàn)達(dá)到準(zhǔn)平衡狀態(tài)時(shí)全球平均地表平均溫度變化基本相同,但二者造成降水的變化差異很大,相對(duì)于參照試驗(yàn),4×CO2試驗(yàn)和4%Solar試驗(yàn),降水分別增加了 5.41%和10.81%。利用線性回歸的方法,將平衡態(tài)降水的變化表示為降水對(duì)外源強(qiáng)迫的快響應(yīng)和降水對(duì)溫度變化漸進(jìn)反饋的線性疊加。模擬結(jié)果表明,對(duì)于CO2強(qiáng)迫和太陽輻射強(qiáng)迫,由于溫度變化造成的降水變化基本相同。CO2強(qiáng)迫和太陽輻射強(qiáng)迫造成的降水差異主要體現(xiàn)在海表溫度發(fā)生顯著變化前的快響應(yīng)階段,在快響應(yīng)階段,就陸地而言,大氣 CO2濃度增加,植被氣孔導(dǎo)度降低,減少植被氣孔向大氣蒸騰的水汽,從而減少降水;就海洋而言,大氣CO2增加,C02的輻射效應(yīng)導(dǎo)致大氣增溫,而海洋的比熱較大,海表溫度變化落后于低層大氣,低層大氣垂直穩(wěn)定度增加,抑制蒸發(fā)和降水。本研究有助于理解CO2和太陽輻射強(qiáng)迫對(duì)氣候系統(tǒng)的影響機(jī)制,為預(yù)測(cè)未來氣候變化提供理論基礎(chǔ)。另一方面,研究氣候系統(tǒng)對(duì)C02強(qiáng)迫和太陽輻射強(qiáng)迫的響應(yīng)也有助于理解以減少太陽輻射為基礎(chǔ)的地球工程產(chǎn)生的氣候效應(yīng),為認(rèn)知地球工程對(duì)氣候系統(tǒng)的可能影響提供理論基礎(chǔ)。
[Abstract]:Since the industrial revolution, human activities (fossil fuel combustion, land use and so on) continue to emit CO2 and other greenhouse gases, causing global climate change. The radiation forcing produced by the increase of atmospheric CO2 is the main cause of global warming. Besides CO2, solar radiation and aerosols are also important external forcing for global climate change. This article is based on CO2 As an example of forcing and solar radiation forcing, a series of simulated experiments are carried out using the HadCM3L climate system model: (1) the atmospheric C02 concentration is suddenly increased by 4 times (4 x C02 test). This experiment considers both the effect of C02 on the climate by absorbing long wave radiation (the radiation effect of C02) and the effect of C02 on the climate effect of the stomatal nature of the vegetation. It should be (the stomatal effect of C02); (2) the atmospheric C02 concentration suddenly increased by 4 times, but only considering the absorption of CO2 to the long wave radiation, without considering the effect of C02 on vegetation (4 x C02 ATM test); (3) the solar constant suddenly increased by 4%, from 1365 Wm-2 to 1419.6 Wm-2 (4%Solar test).CO2 and solar radiation and other exogenous coercion. The response time of different components is different. The atmosphere and land surface have relatively low thermal capacity, the response is faster, and the ocean thermal capacity is larger and the temperature changes slowly. In recent years, some climate change studies have classified the response of climate system to exogenous compulsion as "fast response" and "gradual feedback". The response of the climate system before the apparent temperature changes; gradual feedback is the climate system change caused by the rise of the sea surface temperature as time goes on. From the perspective of fast response and gradual feedback, this paper systematically studies the climate system from first days after the occurrence of exogenous compulsion to 1000, according to the results of HadCM3L simulation. The continuous evolution process reveals the differences and similarities between the CO2 forcing and the solar radiation forcing on the fast response and progressive feedback of the climate system. According to the simulation results, the net radiant flux of the top down of the atmosphere at the first days after the forced occurrence, the top down of the atmosphere in the 4 x C02 test and the 4%Solar test (i.e. the external forcing on the climate system) is 9.69 W m-2 and 6., respectively. 30Wm-2, when the climate system reaches the quasi equilibrium state after 1000, the global surface average temperature rises by 5.71 K and 5.70 K, which indicates that the required solar radiation forcing for the same average surface temperature changes is greater than the required C02 radiation forcing, that is, the efficiency of CO2 radiation forcing is higher than that of the solar radiation force. The results show that the difference in the radiative forcing efficiency is mainly related to the change of the clear sky long wave radiation during the rapid adjustment process of the earth gas system. This is mainly due to the radiation effect of C02 that makes more long wave radiation absorbed in the climate system. So, in the first year 4%Solar test, more clear sky waves from the top of the atmosphere escape to outer space. After comparing the changes of the global surface temperature in the 4 x C02 test and the 4 x CO2 ATM test on different time scales, it is found that the land surface temperature increases by 0.67 K in the 4 x C02 test after the forced occurrence, and the 4 x C02 ATM test increases the temperature 0.25K. After 1 months after the forced occurrence, the surface temperature increase of the land surface is nearly 1 times higher than the 4 x CO2atm test in the 4 x CO2 test. On the short time scale (about 1 months) after forced occurrence, the stomatal effect of CO2 plays an important role in increasing the temperature of the ground. The increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere reduces the plant leaf conductivity, the decrease of vegetation transpiration, and the decrease of latent heat release. At the same time, the low cloud cloud amount over land is reduced, the solar radiation to the ground increases, and the surface temperature increases. In several years, the temperature of the ground is increased. On the time scale, the temperature variation gap between the 4 x C02 test and the 4 x C02atm test decreases with time. When the model reaches the quasi equilibrium state, the average surface temperature of the 4 x CO2 test and the 4 x C02 ATM test is 5.71 K and 5.22 K, indicating that the radiation effect of C02 in the 4 * C02 test rises with the change of the global surface temperature in the climate system with the passage of time. The global average surface average temperature changes are basically the same when the leading role.4 x C02 test and 4%Solar test reach quasi equilibrium state, but the change of precipitation varies greatly between the two ones. Compared with the reference test, the 4 x CO2 test and the 4%Solar test increase the precipitation by 5.41% and 10.81%. linear regression method respectively, which will change the equilibrium precipitation. The result shows that the precipitation variation caused by CO2 forcing and solar radiation forced by the change of temperature is basically the same as that caused by the same.CO2 forcing and solar radiation forced by the change of temperature, which mainly reflects the change of the sea surface temperature. In the fast response phase, in the fast response stage, the atmospheric CO2 concentration increased, the stomatal conductance of the vegetation decreased, the air vapour of the vegetation was reduced to the atmospheric transpiration, and the precipitation was reduced. As for the ocean, the atmospheric CO2 increased, the radiation effect of C02 led to the atmosphere warming, and the ocean's specific heat was larger, the sea surface temperature was lagging behind the lower layer. This study helps to understand the effects of CO2 and solar radiation on climate systems and provide a theoretical basis for predicting climate change in the future. On the other hand, the study of the response of the climate system to C02 forcing and solar radiation is also helpful to understand the reduction of the solar radiation. The climate effect generated by earth based engineering provides a theoretical basis for the possible impact of cognitive geoengineering on the climate system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：P467;P435

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2 劉維;氣候系統(tǒng)對(duì)二氧化碳強(qiáng)迫和太陽輻射強(qiáng)迫從1天到1000年時(shí)間尺度上響應(yīng)的模擬研究[D];浙江大學(xué);2017年

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