論文綜合了分析了中國1970年至2007年間的27種影響全球氣候變化的因素,包括人為因素、經(jīng)濟(jì)因素以及因工業(yè)、遷徙以及自然因素等變量。實(shí)證研究表明所列的各種變量不能僅用碳排放量或其他因素準(zhǔn)確的評價(jià)。這主要是因?yàn)樵u價(jià)常數(shù)因不同地區(qū)碳排放強(qiáng)度而不同。需要結(jié)合經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展等因素做綜合分析。研究采用科學(xué)性和邏輯性較強(qiáng)的預(yù)測工具-靈敏度模型對中國氣候變化進(jìn)行模擬分析。模擬了中國未來10年環(huán)境的可持續(xù)變化,并給出了11個(gè)模擬變量。積極影響因素GDP增長值變量顯示排放量隨GDP增長值的增加而增加,但最后呈回落趨勢。與Environmental Kuznet Curve （EKC）相矛盾的發(fā)現(xiàn)是,人口對排放量的影響在低收入范圍內(nèi)比高收入范圍顯著。此外在中國,能源效應(yīng)的微分效應(yīng)因富裕程度的不同而變化。當(dāng)CO2的排放量達(dá)到峰值時(shí),能源效應(yīng)對排放量的影響最大。為驗(yàn)證此推論,論文根據(jù)中國不同富裕程度分析人口壓力對排放量的影響。模型針對不同基線模型體系建立,相互嵌套。經(jīng)驗(yàn)證,模擬結(jié)果與數(shù)據(jù)吻合性良好,標(biāo)志著可進(jìn)一步縮小Akaike Information Criterion （AIC）統(tǒng)計(jì)基線模型（-852對-82... 

【文章來源】：天津大學(xué)天津市 211工程院校 985工程院校 教育部直屬院校

【文章頁數(shù)】：171 頁

【學(xué)位級別】：博士

【文章目錄】：
Abstract
中文摘要
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION
    1.1 Objectives
    1.2 Problem Definition/Statement
    1.3 Project Justification
    1.4 Area of Contribution
    1.5 Research Methodology
    1.6 Scope and Limitation
    1.7 Work Organization
    1.8.Structure of the Report
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW
    2.1 Introduction
    2.2 GreenHouse Gas Emissions
    2.3 Global Warming Potentials
    2.4 Concern about Climate Variability
    2.5 Mitigation and Adaptation
        2.5.1 Mitigation
        2.5.2 Adaptation
        2.5.3 Vulnerability
    2.6 Observations and Trend of Climate Change in China
        2.6.1 Current GHG Emissions in China
    2.7 China’s Efforts and Achievements in Mitigating Climate Change
        2.7.1 China’s Basic National Circumstances and Impacts of Climate Change on China
        2.7.2 Principles and Objectives of China to Address Climate Change
        2.7.3 Policies and Measures to Address Climate Change
    2.8 Comparable Trends between the United States and China
        2.8.1 China’s Domestic and Transboundary Air Pollution
        2.8.2 Growing Economic and Health Costs from Coal Burning
    2.9 China in the International Politics of Climate Change
        2.9.1 Introduction
        2.9.2 China’s Role in International Politics of Climate Change
    2.10 China’s Energy Outlook 2007-2010
    2.11 China Effort So Far
        2.11.1 State of China’s Environment
        2.11.2 Environmental Collaboration
        2.11.3 Summarizing Chapter Two
CHAPTER THREE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS DRIVING FORCE
    3.1.Introduction
    3.2.Monitoring and Indicators
        3.2.1 Coupling to a DSR-framework
CHAPTER FOUR SENSITIVITY SOFTWARE MECHANISMS AND APPLICATIONS
    4.1 Critique on Environmental Kuznet Curve Model
    4.2 An Informal Overview of the Sensitivity Model Prof. Vester Application Summary
        4.2.1 Menu Mechanism
        4.2.2 System Descriptions
        4.2.3 The Preliminary System
        4.2.4 List of Variables
        4.2.5 System Criteria
        4.2.6 Impact Matrix
        4.2.7 Index of Influence
        4.2.8 Systemic Role
    4.3 Mathematical basics of the simulation tool in the Sensitivity Model Prof. Vester(?)
        4.3.1 Variables and effects
        4.3.2 Input factors
        4.3.3 Effect factor
    4.4 The physics of the Sensitivity Simulation Model
        4.4.1 Modified Lotka-Volterra differential equations
        4.4.2 One Variable: The Logistic Function
        4.4.3 Two variables: General case
    4.5 Additional elements of the simulation tools
        4.5.1 Static variables
        4.5.2 Effects with delay
        4.5.3 Steps of the course
CHAPTER FIVE PARTIAL SCENARIOS AND SIMULATION
    5.1 Introduction
    5.2 The eight basics rules of bio-cybernetics
    5.3 Simulation Model Runs
    5.4 Analysis, Findings and Evaluation
        5.4.1 Empirical Analysis and Application
        5.4.2 Regression Results
        5.4.3 The Role of Various Variables on Emissions and Others
        5.4.4 The Impact of Population Varies with the Levels of Affluence
        5.4.5 Brief Summary- The Effect of Population on C02
CHAPTER SIX CONCLUSION, POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
    6.1 Conclusions
    6.2 Practical/Policy Implication
    6.3 Recommendations: Opportunities for a More Proactive Chinese Climate Policy in the Future
    6.4 Addressing Climate Change within the Framework of Sustainable Development
        6.4.1 Challenges in China’s sustainable development strategy
    6.5 Policy recommendations on addressing climate change within sustainable development framework
REFERENCES
ONLINE SOURCES
GLOSSARY AND ABBREVIATIONS
APPENDIX
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
LIST OF PUBLICATIOS, PROCEEDINGS AND CONFERENCE ATTENDED



本文編號：3459879