發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-07-22 15:35

【摘要】：科學(xué)地評(píng)估空氣質(zhì)量的經(jīng)濟(jì)價(jià)值是政府制定空氣污染治理政策的必要前提。近年來選擇實(shí)驗(yàn)方法逐漸興起,并被研究者廣泛應(yīng)用于環(huán)境價(jià)值評(píng)估。與其他陳述偏好方法相比,選擇實(shí)驗(yàn)的一個(gè)優(yōu)勢(shì)是其具有更高的外部效度。選擇實(shí)驗(yàn)方法在國(guó)內(nèi)的應(yīng)用研究尚處在起步階段。本研究分別在2015年和2016年對(duì)北京市居民開展了兩次基于選擇實(shí)驗(yàn)方法的網(wǎng)絡(luò)調(diào)查,在調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上采用隨機(jī)參數(shù)Logit和廣義多元Logit模型分析了北京市居民對(duì)空氣質(zhì)量的偏好,并據(jù)此估算了空氣質(zhì)量?jī)r(jià)值。根據(jù)2015年樣本的估算結(jié)果,霧霾天氣(PM_(2.5)超標(biāo))和沙塵天氣(PM_(10)超標(biāo))對(duì)北京市居民的平均邊際價(jià)值分別為6.32元/d和2.69元/d;根據(jù)2016年樣本的估算結(jié)果,兩個(gè)價(jià)值分別為7.72元/d和2.81元/d。上述估算結(jié)果在兩次調(diào)查樣本中基本穩(wěn)定,而且,在多種模型設(shè)定下都具有較強(qiáng)的穩(wěn)健性,與近年來的同類研究結(jié)果基本一致。以2016年樣本的估算結(jié)果為基礎(chǔ),2015年北京市霧霾天氣和沙塵天氣引起的價(jià)值損失分別為239.61億元和45.13億元,占北京市當(dāng)年GDP總量的1.04%和0.20%。進(jìn)一步研究發(fā)現(xiàn),北京市2015年和2016年空氣質(zhì)量改善的價(jià)值均低于北京市政府同年用于治理空氣污染投入的財(cái)政資金總量,說明資金使用效率有待進(jìn)一步提高;此外,雖然空氣質(zhì)量對(duì)高收入居民具有更高的價(jià)值,但是,以收入水平為指標(biāo)設(shè)計(jì)的累進(jìn)稅率并不比固定稅率更優(yōu)。
[Abstract]:Scientific evaluation of the economic value of air quality is a necessary prerequisite for the government to formulate air pollution control policies. In recent years, the selection of experimental methods is gradually rising, and has been widely used in environmental value assessment. Compared with other declarative preference methods, one of the advantages of selection experiment is that it has higher external validity. The application of experimental methods in China is still in its infancy. In this study, two network surveys based on selection experiment method were carried out for Beijing residents in 2015 and 2016, respectively. on the basis of the survey data, the preference of Beijing residents for air quality was analyzed by using random parameter Logit and generalized multivariate Logit model, and the value of air quality was estimated. According to the estimated results of 2015 samples, the average marginal values of haze weather (PM_) and dust weather (PM_ (10) exceeding the standard) to Beijing residents were 6.32 yuan / d and 2.69 yuan / d, respectively. According to the estimated results of 2016 samples, the two values were 7.72 yuan / d and 2.81 yuan / d, respectively. The above estimation results are basically stable in the two survey samples, and have strong robustness under a variety of model settings, which is basically consistent with the similar research results in recent years. Based on the estimated results of 2016 samples, the value losses caused by haze weather and dust weather in Beijing in 2015 were 23.961 billion yuan and 4.513 billion yuan, respectively, accounting for 1.04% and 0.20% of the total GDP in Beijing in that year. It is found that the value of air quality improvement in Beijing in 2015 and 2016 is lower than the total amount of financial funds invested by the Beijing municipal government in the same year to control air pollution, indicating that the efficiency of the use of funds needs to be further improved. in addition, although air quality has higher value to high-income residents, the progressive tax rate designed with the income level as the index is no better than the fixed tax rate.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院農(nóng)村發(fā)展研究所;
【基金】：中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)專項(xiàng)資金資助項(xiàng)目“基于選擇實(shí)驗(yàn)的北京市霧霾治理公共政策研究”(批準(zhǔn)號(hào):16XNB023)
【分類號(hào)】：X823

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