本文選題：北京市 + 空氣質(zhì)量��； 參考：《首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：能源是一種重要的資源,但能源的開發(fā)和利用過程也對(duì)自然環(huán)境造成污染和破壞,危害人體健康。作為人口2000萬(wàn)以上的超大型城市,北京的能源需求量巨大,且2015年化石能源在能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)中占比高達(dá)76%,化石燃料燃燒產(chǎn)生大量的大氣污染物。在此背景下,本文運(yùn)用定量分析方法,評(píng)價(jià)北京市空氣質(zhì)量,分析北京市能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)空氣質(zhì)量的影響,探討進(jìn)一步改善能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu),治理大氣污染的對(duì)策。本文分析了北京市2000-2015年SO2、NO2、PM10、PM2.5濃度狀況,并用灰色聚類模型來評(píng)價(jià)北京市2000-2015年的空氣質(zhì)量綜合水平。結(jié)果表明,北京市2000-2015年期間SO2、PM10年均濃度呈下降趨勢(shì),NO2、PM2.5濃度在2000-2007年下降,在2008年以后降幅很小,窄幅波動(dòng);2000-2007年空氣質(zhì)量為III級(jí),2008年以后均為II級(jí),空氣質(zhì)量總體上逐漸提高。本文分析了北京市2000-2015年能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的變化、主要能源的用途和存在的問題,并運(yùn)用協(xié)整分析和誤差修正模型分別分析能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)SO2、NO2、PM10、PM2.5年均濃度和以第三灰類聚類系數(shù)代表的空氣質(zhì)量綜合指數(shù)的影響,結(jié)果表明:一、煤品和油品在能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)中占比對(duì)空氣質(zhì)量綜合指數(shù)和各污染物濃度有正向的影響;天然氣在總能耗中的占比對(duì)空氣質(zhì)量綜合指數(shù)和SO2、PM10濃度有負(fù)向的影響,對(duì)NO2、PM2.5濃度有正向的影響,其不充分燃燒可能會(huì)產(chǎn)生NO2和少量的PM2.5;電力在總能耗中的占比對(duì)空氣質(zhì)量綜合指數(shù)和各污染物濃度均有負(fù)向的影響。二、北京市煤品在總能耗中占比的降低及電力占比的提高有效地降低了各污染物濃度并提高了空氣質(zhì)量整體水平,但同時(shí)油品占比的大幅提高制約著北京市NO2、PM2.5濃度的降低,使得北京市大氣污染面臨著新的挑戰(zhàn),天然氣只能作為能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的過渡在一定程度上改善空氣質(zhì)量。在此實(shí)證研究的基礎(chǔ)上,指出治理能源相關(guān)大氣污染的根本性措施是減少化石能源消費(fèi),提高新能源和可再生能源在總能耗中的比重,并提出推動(dòng)分布式光伏與電動(dòng)汽車協(xié)同發(fā)展等措施。
[Abstract]:Energy is an important resource, but the process of energy development and utilization also causes pollution and destruction to the natural environment and endangering human health. As a super large city over 20 million of the population, Beijing has a huge demand for energy. In 2015, fossil fuels accounted for 76% of the energy consumption structure, and the burning of fossil fuels produced a large amount of atmosphere. In this context, the quantitative analysis method is used to evaluate the air quality in Beijing City, analyze the influence of energy consumption structure on the air quality in Beijing, and discuss the countermeasures to further improve the energy consumption structure and control the air pollution. This paper analyzes the concentration status of SO2, NO2, PM10, and PM2.5 in Beijing City, and uses grey clustering model. The overall level of air quality in Beijing for 2000-2015 years was evaluated for 2000-2015 years. The results showed that the average annual concentration of PM10 was decreasing in the period of 2000-2015 years in the city of Beijing. The concentration of NO2 and PM2.5 decreased in 2000-2007 Years. After 2008, the decline was very small and the narrow amplitude fluctuated; the air quality was III grade in 2000-2007 Years and II grade after 2008, and the air quality was overall on the whole. This paper analyzes the changes in energy consumption structure in Beijing for 2000-2015 years, the use and existing problems of the main energy sources, and the effects of the energy consumption structure on the annual concentration of SO2, NO2, PM10, PM2.5 and the air mass index represented by the third ash clustering coefficient respectively by the cointegration analysis and error correction model. It shows that: first, coal and oil have a positive influence on the air quality comprehensive index and the concentration of all pollutants in the energy consumption structure; the total energy consumption of natural gas has a negative influence on the air mass index and the concentration of SO2 and PM10, and has a positive effect on the concentration of NO2 and PM2.5, and its insufficient combustion may produce NO2 and less. The amount of PM2.5 in the total energy consumption has a negative impact on the air quality index and the concentration of all pollutants. Two, the decrease of the proportion of the total energy consumption and the increase of the electric power ratio in Beijing effectively reduce the concentration of the pollutants and improve the overall level of the air quality, but at the same time, the proportion of oil products is greatly improved. With the reduction of the concentration of NO2 and PM2.5 in Beijing, the air pollution in Beijing is facing new challenges. Natural gas can only be used as a transition of energy consumption structure to improve the air quality to a certain extent. On the basis of this empirical study, it is pointed out that the fundamental measures to control the air pollution related to energy are to reduce fossil energy consumption and increase the consumption of fossil energy. The proportion of new energy and renewable energy in total energy consumption, and put forward measures to promote the coordinated development of distributed photovoltaic and electric vehicles.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：X51;F426.2

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