本文選題：可一般計(jì)算均衡模型 + 碳稅��； 參考：《江南大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開放近四十年來(lái),中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)了長(zhǎng)達(dá)數(shù)十年的高速發(fā)展,經(jīng)濟(jì)總量也在不斷地增加,并在2010年成為世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。經(jīng)濟(jì)高速發(fā)展的同時(shí)所產(chǎn)生的環(huán)境問(wèn)題也不容忽視,大氣污染和生態(tài)破壞等問(wèn)題日益凸顯。根據(jù)國(guó)際能源署公布的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)看,我國(guó)的碳排放數(shù)據(jù)也在逐步的增加,從2004年的3671.934百萬(wàn)噸到2012年的6512.7百萬(wàn)噸,環(huán)境惡化和大氣污染以及溫室氣體排放等問(wèn)題對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)和人民生活水平的提高造成巨大威脅。因此,要實(shí)現(xiàn)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展,必須走可持續(xù)的“低碳之路”,政府應(yīng)結(jié)合現(xiàn)實(shí)國(guó)情,實(shí)施政治上可行、經(jīng)濟(jì)上有效的環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)政策,實(shí)現(xiàn)節(jié)能降耗,這關(guān)系到廣大人民的切身利益、關(guān)系到中華民族的長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)發(fā)展。在減排政策的選擇上,碳稅機(jī)制的構(gòu)建得到了較多學(xué)界研究者的肯定。目前我國(guó)對(duì)碳稅征收仍處于試驗(yàn)和研究階段,因此詳細(xì)分析碳稅對(duì)我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、要素分配等方面的影響具有重要的實(shí)際意義。本文以投入產(chǎn)出理論、SAM理論、瓦爾拉斯一般均衡理論等作為理論基礎(chǔ),建立了碳稅政策對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的CGE模型,模擬分析了我國(guó)碳稅政策對(duì)我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響,系統(tǒng)分析了碳稅政策對(duì)能源消費(fèi)、能源價(jià)格、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量、行業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)、要素流動(dòng)等變量的影響。編制了《中國(guó)宏觀社會(huì)核算矩陣》和《中國(guó)社會(huì)核算矩陣分解表》作為數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ),以勞動(dòng)力、資本和能源作為要素投入,構(gòu)建了中國(guó)環(huán)境CGE模型,并結(jié)合學(xué)界的研究成果,確定了四種不同的碳稅稅率:20元/噸,40元/噸,50元/噸,80元/噸,探究了不同碳稅稅率對(duì)各經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的不同影響。研究表明:首先,碳稅征收能促進(jìn)二氧化碳排放量減少,也會(huì)提高煤炭、石油、天然氣這三種化石能源的從價(jià)稅率。由于較高碳排放系數(shù)的特征,煤炭的從價(jià)稅率上漲幅度最大。其次,提高碳稅征收水平會(huì)使煤炭、石油、天然氣和火電消費(fèi)量逐漸下降。其中煤炭能源消費(fèi)量下降幅度最大,而火電消費(fèi)量下降幅度較小。低碳能源受限于技術(shù)和研發(fā)成本限制,其消費(fèi)量雖有上升但上升幅度較小。碳稅征收對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響,隨著碳稅稅率的提高,這些變量的下降幅度也會(huì)逐漸增大。但政府收入和居民收入得到了一定提升,且政府收入增加幅度高于居民收入的增加幅度。另外,碳稅征收降低了能源部門及能源密集型部門的總產(chǎn)出,提高了生產(chǎn)成本,化石能源行業(yè)產(chǎn)出下降幅度更大,其中煤炭行業(yè)的產(chǎn)出下降幅度最大。對(duì)非能源行業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō),征收碳稅刺激了一些低碳行業(yè)的產(chǎn)出上漲。最后,碳稅征收促使我國(guó)對(duì)化石能源部門的需求和消費(fèi)減少,刺激低能耗行業(yè)的發(fā)展�；谝陨涎芯�,最后本文從確定合理碳稅稅率、扶持低碳能源的發(fā)展及優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)等角度出發(fā)提出對(duì)策建議,全面推進(jìn)、發(fā)揮聯(lián)動(dòng)效應(yīng),以更好地實(shí)現(xiàn)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:After nearly 40 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has been developing at a high speed for decades, and its total economic output has been increasing, and it became the second largest economy in the world in 2010. The environmental problems caused by the rapid development of economy can not be ignored, and the problems of air pollution and ecological destruction are becoming more and more prominent. According to the data released by the International Energy Agency, China's carbon emissions data are also gradually increasing, from 3671.934 million tons in 2004 to 6512.7 million tons in 2012. Environmental degradation, air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions pose a great threat to the sustained economic growth and the improvement of people's living standards. Therefore, in order to realize the sustainable development of China's economy, we must take a sustainable "low-carbon road", and the government should combine the actual situation, implement politically feasible and economically effective environmental and economic policies, and realize energy saving and consumption reduction. This concerns the vital interests of the broad masses of people and the long-term development of the Chinese nation. In the choice of emission reduction policy, the construction of carbon tax mechanism has been recognized by many academic researchers. At present, the collection of carbon tax in China is still in the experimental and research stage, so it is of great practical significance to analyze the impact of carbon tax on the national economy, industrial structure, factor distribution and so on. Based on the input-output theory and Valas general equilibrium theory, this paper establishes the CGE model of the impact of carbon tax policy on China's economy, and simulates and analyzes the impact of carbon tax policy on China's macro economy. The effects of carbon tax policy on energy consumption, energy price, macroeconomic variables, industry economic structure, factor flow and so on are systematically analyzed. In this paper, the CGE model of Chinese environment is constructed based on the matrix of macro-social accounting in China and the decomposition table of matrix of social accounting in China, which is based on labor, capital and energy, and combined with the research results of academic circles. Four different carbon tax rates: 20 yuan / ton 40 yuan / ton and 50 yuan / ton / ton 80 yuan / ton were determined, and the different effects of different carbon tax rates on each economic variable were explored. First of all, the levy of carbon tax can promote the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, but also increase the ad valorem tax rate of coal, oil and natural gas. Due to the characteristics of higher carbon emission coefficient, the ad valorem tax rate of coal increases the most. Second, higher carbon taxes will reduce consumption of coal, oil, natural gas and thermal power. Among them, coal energy consumption decreased the most, while thermal power consumption decreased by a small margin. Low-carbon energy is limited by technology and R & D costs, and consumption has risen slightly. Carbon tax collection has a negative impact on macroeconomic variables. With the increase of carbon tax rate, the decrease of these variables will gradually increase. However, the government income and resident income have been improved, and the increase rate of government income is higher than that of resident income. In addition, the carbon tax reduced total output in the energy and energy-intensive sectors, increased production costs, and even more sharply declined output in the fossil energy sector, with the largest drop in output in the coal sector. For the non-energy sector, a carbon tax has spurred higher output in some low-carbon sectors. Finally, the levy of carbon tax impels our country to reduce the demand and consumption of fossil energy sector, and stimulate the development of low energy consumption industry. Based on the above research, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions from the angle of determining the reasonable carbon tax rate, supporting the development of low-carbon energy and optimizing the industrial structure, so as to promote the overall development and bring into play the linkage effect. In order to better achieve the sustainable development of China's economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：X196;F812.42;F124

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 原毅軍;苗穎;謝榮輝;;基于環(huán)境CGE模型的水污染稅政策績(jī)效評(píng)估[J];科技與管理;2016年03期

2 張寧;時(shí)寧寧;盧靖;劉聰;;浙江省水資源政策對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的模擬分析——基于CGE模型[J];華東經(jīng)濟(jì)管理;2016年05期

3 袁永娜;李娜;石敏俊;;我國(guó)多區(qū)域CGE模型的構(gòu)建及其在碳交易政策模擬中的應(yīng)用[J];數(shù)學(xué)的實(shí)踐與認(rèn)識(shí);2016年03期

4 劉宇;胡曉虹;;提高火電行業(yè)排放標(biāo)準(zhǔn)對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)和污染物排放的影響——基于環(huán)境CGE模型的測(cè)算[J];氣候變化研究進(jìn)展;2016年02期

5 范慶泉;周縣華;潘文卿;;從生產(chǎn)性財(cái)政支出效率看規(guī)模優(yōu)化:基于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的視角[J];南開經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2015年05期

6 宋建新;崔連標(biāo);;發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家碳關(guān)稅征收對(duì)我國(guó)的影響究竟如何——基于多區(qū)域CGE模型的定量評(píng)估[J];國(guó)際經(jīng)貿(mào)探索;2015年06期

7 沈月琴;曾程;王成軍;朱臻;馮娜娜;;碳匯補(bǔ)貼和碳稅政策對(duì)林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響研究——基于CGE的分析[J];自然資源學(xué)報(bào);2015年04期

8 郭正權(quán);鄭宇花;張興平;;基于CGE模型的我國(guó)能源-環(huán)境-經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)分析[J];系統(tǒng)工程學(xué)報(bào);2014年05期

9 婁峰;;碳稅征收對(duì)我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)及碳減排影響的模擬研究[J];數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2014年10期

10 王臘芳;肖皓;肖明智;;基于動(dòng)態(tài)CGE模型的能源價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)分析[J];財(cái)經(jīng)理論與實(shí)踐;2014年05期

，

本文編號(hào)：1842953