本文選題：峰值目標(biāo) + CGE模型　； 參考：《天津科技大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái),由二氧化碳排放劇增而引起的氣候變化問(wèn)題已成為全球共同關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)問(wèn)題。許多國(guó)家都已經(jīng)采取一系列相關(guān)措施來(lái)減少本國(guó)的二氧化碳排放。中國(guó)作為全球最大的碳排放國(guó)家一直面對(duì)著來(lái)自國(guó)際上的巨大壓力。2009年的哥本哈根會(huì)議上中國(guó)已做出限制碳排放量和加快能源結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型的承諾,到2015年則正式承諾國(guó)家將于2030年左右實(shí)現(xiàn)碳排放峰值。實(shí)現(xiàn)國(guó)家整體碳排放峰值目標(biāo)的關(guān)鍵點(diǎn)在于全國(guó)各區(qū)域都基本實(shí)現(xiàn)本區(qū)域的碳排放峰值目標(biāo),因此,如何將全國(guó)碳排放峰值目標(biāo)科學(xué)、合理地分配到各個(gè)區(qū)域并指導(dǎo)各區(qū)域盡早實(shí)現(xiàn)峰值成為了當(dāng)前中國(guó)政府面臨的重大問(wèn)題。由于全國(guó)各省市的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r差異較大,依據(jù)單一指標(biāo)進(jìn)行峰值目標(biāo)的區(qū)域分配是行不通的,需要充分考慮各區(qū)域多方面的發(fā)展特點(diǎn)并結(jié)合全國(guó)未來(lái)發(fā)展趨勢(shì),才能對(duì)全國(guó)碳排放峰值目標(biāo)進(jìn)行科學(xué)、合理地區(qū)域分配。本文首先依據(jù)全國(guó)主體功能區(qū)分類對(duì)全國(guó)30個(gè)省市進(jìn)行了區(qū)域劃分,并詳細(xì)分析各區(qū)域在經(jīng)濟(jì)、產(chǎn)業(yè)、能源和碳排放四個(gè)方面的特點(diǎn)。然后構(gòu)建了一個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)中國(guó)到2050年整體經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、能源消費(fèi)和碳排放量的CGE模型,在此基礎(chǔ)上參考各省市的發(fā)展特點(diǎn),設(shè)計(jì)了全國(guó)碳排放峰值目標(biāo)的區(qū)域分配方法,并進(jìn)行了試分配。結(jié)果顯示:在全國(guó)碳排放峰值目標(biāo)方面,碳排放總量將在2025年實(shí)現(xiàn)峰值,達(dá)峰年份碳排放總量應(yīng)在100億噸以內(nèi),同時(shí)隨著產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)比重逐漸降低,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大,到2030年年均經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率將穩(wěn)定在6%左右;分區(qū)域峰值目標(biāo)上,各優(yōu)化開發(fā)區(qū)平均將在2020年或之前實(shí)現(xiàn)峰值,2030年的碳排放量要比基準(zhǔn)年碳排放量下降幅度超過(guò)10%;重點(diǎn)開發(fā)區(qū)達(dá)峰時(shí)間則相對(duì)較晚,預(yù)計(jì)將在2025年左右實(shí)現(xiàn)碳排放峰值,到2030年碳排放量要比基準(zhǔn)年下降10%左右。
[Abstract]:In recent years, climate change caused by a dramatic increase in carbon dioxide emissions has become a focus of global concern. Many countries have adopted a series of relevant measures to reduce their own carbon dioxide emissions. China, as the world's largest carbon emitter, faces a direct face to the great pressure from the world for.2009 years. At the Hagen conference, China has made commitments to limit carbon emissions and accelerate the transformation of the energy structure. By 2015, it formally promised that the country will achieve its peak carbon emissions by 2030. The key point to achieve the national overall carbon emission peak is that all regions of the country have basically achieved its peak carbon emission target in the region. Therefore, how will the whole country be able to achieve the peak of its carbon emissions. The target of national carbon emission peak is scientific, rational distribution to each region and guiding the region to realize the peak value as soon as possible has become a major problem facing the current Chinese government. Because of the large difference in the development situation of all provinces and cities in China, it is not feasible to carry out the regional distribution of the peak target on the basis of a single index. The characteristics of the development and the future development trend of the country can make the national carbon emission peak target scientific and rational regional distribution. Firstly, according to the national main function area classification, 30 provinces and cities are divided into four areas, and the characteristics of each region in the economic, industrial, energy and carbon emissions are analyzed in detail. A CGE model is built to predict the overall economic development, industrial structure, energy consumption and carbon emissions in China by 2050. Based on the development characteristics of various provinces and cities, the regional distribution method of the national carbon emission peak target is designed and the trial distribution is carried out. The results show that the total carbon emission in the national carbon emission peak target is the total amount of carbon emissions. The peak value will be achieved in 2025. The total amount of carbon emissions in the peak year should be within 100 million tons. With the adjustment of the industrial structure, the proportion of the second industry is gradually reduced, the scale of the third industry is expanding, and the average annual economic growth rate will be stable at about 6% by 2030. On the target of regional peak, the average development zones will be realized in 2020 or before. The peak value of carbon emissions in 2030 is more than 10% compared to that of the base year carbon emissions; the peak time of the key development zone is relatively late. It is expected to achieve the peak of carbon emissions in about 2025. By 2030, the carbon emissions will be about 10% lower than that of the base year.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：X321

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