本文選題：ZSG-SBM模型　切入點(diǎn)：碳減排目標(biāo)　出處：《中國(guó)人口·資源與環(huán)境》2017年05期

【摘要】：首先,將"零和收益"的博弈思想引入到SBM模型中,構(gòu)建了基于零和收益的碳減排SBM效率分配模型(ZSG-SBM)。然后,基于"十三五"規(guī)劃中我國(guó)整體碳強(qiáng)度降低18%的減排約束,從經(jīng)濟(jì)增速和能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)2個(gè)維度設(shè)置了"十三五"期間我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的4種發(fā)展情景,應(yīng)用上述ZSG-SBM模型對(duì)碳減排目標(biāo)進(jìn)行了省際層面的效率分配。并通過對(duì)比各省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和碳減排目標(biāo)的分配結(jié)果,分析了各省的低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展路徑。結(jié)果表明:采用ZSG-SBM模型對(duì)碳排放量進(jìn)行效率分配后,30個(gè)省份的投入、產(chǎn)出指標(biāo)實(shí)現(xiàn)了有效配置,碳排放效率到達(dá)效率前沿。政府基于"公平"導(dǎo)向的行政分配方案會(huì)造成一定程度的效率損失,基于ZSG-SBM模型的效率分配方案更符合低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)發(fā)展要求。在碳強(qiáng)度約束的基礎(chǔ)上,能源強(qiáng)度的再約束將迫使各省優(yōu)化能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu),從而提升我國(guó)整體碳排放效率。"十三五"時(shí)期,我國(guó)有16個(gè)省份的碳減排目標(biāo)分配結(jié)果大于18%的平均標(biāo)準(zhǔn),各省應(yīng)根據(jù)自身資源稟賦、經(jīng)濟(jì)水平、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的現(xiàn)狀選擇差異的低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展道路。
[Abstract]:Firstly, the "zero-sum income" game theory is introduced into the SBM model, and a zero-sum profit based SBM efficiency allocation model for carbon emission reduction is constructed. Then, based on the emission reduction constraint of 18% reduction of the overall carbon intensity in China in the 13th Five-Year Plan, a ZSG-SBM model is constructed. From the two dimensions of economic growth and energy consumption structure, this paper sets up four development scenarios of China's economic system during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. The efficiency distribution of carbon emission reduction target at provincial level is carried out by using the above ZSG-SBM model, and the distribution results of each province's economic development and carbon emission reduction target are compared. The development path of low-carbon economy in various provinces is analyzed. The results show that after the efficient allocation of carbon emissions by ZSG-SBM model, the input and output indicators of 30 provinces are effectively allocated. The efficiency of carbon emissions reaches the forefront of efficiency. The government's "fair" oriented administrative allocation scheme will result in a certain degree of efficiency loss. The efficiency distribution scheme based on ZSG-SBM model is more suitable for the long-term development of low-carbon economy. On the basis of carbon intensity constraint, energy intensity reconstraint will force provinces to optimize energy consumption structure. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, there were 16 provinces in China whose carbon emission reduction target allocation results exceeded the average standard of 18%. Each province should base on its own resource endowment and economic level. Industrial structure and energy consumption structure of the status quo choice of low-carbon economic development path.
【作者單位】： 南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)院;南京大學(xué)工程管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金面上項(xiàng)目“基于公眾認(rèn)知視角的鄰避項(xiàng)目環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估與治理研究”(批準(zhǔn)號(hào):71671080),“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)環(huán)境下考慮內(nèi)生信息的鄰避集群行為演化機(jī)理研究”(批準(zhǔn)號(hào):71571099) 國(guó)家自然科學(xué)青年基金項(xiàng)目“鄰避行為的形成、演變及其沖突協(xié)調(diào)研究”(批準(zhǔn)號(hào):71301070) 江蘇省社會(huì)科學(xué)基金“群體性鄰避行為的度量及其沖突協(xié)調(diào)研究”(批準(zhǔn)號(hào):13SHC014) 全國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)科學(xué)研究項(xiàng)目“能源品階視角下我國(guó)能源統(tǒng)計(jì)核算及其資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表編制”(批準(zhǔn)號(hào):2016LZ36)
【分類號(hào)】：X321
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本文編號(hào)：1667613