本文選題：碳排放　切入點：終端能源消費　出處：《昆明理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：云南省作為低碳試點之一,要實現(xiàn)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,就需要大力推動節(jié)能減排,制定相對應(yīng)的措施來實現(xiàn)不同階段的減排目標(biāo)。本文選取2000-2014年云南終端能源消費數(shù)據(jù),基于一次能源消費,在參考二次能源(電力、熱力)碳排放因子的變化趨勢和省域電力調(diào)入調(diào)出的基礎(chǔ)上,計算各部門承擔(dān)比,結(jié)合二次能源所消耗的一次能源消費,間接測算出二次能源碳排放因子,進(jìn)而以17種(含電力、熱力)能源分八大部門構(gòu)建云南省二氧化碳排放總量模型,并對云南省總體碳排放特征進(jìn)行了全面分析。采用LMDI分解法,將云南省碳排放量分解為生產(chǎn)部門5類因素、生活部門6類因素合計11個驅(qū)動因素進(jìn)行研究。最后,重點針對生產(chǎn)部門的碳排放強(qiáng)度分產(chǎn)業(yè)分解分析,并運用Theil指數(shù)分析云南省產(chǎn)業(yè)間碳排放強(qiáng)度的差異,從而找出云南省減排重要產(chǎn)業(yè),并對其進(jìn)行詳細(xì)分析研究。研究結(jié)果表明:(1)2000-2014年,云南省生產(chǎn)部門碳排放量占總比高達(dá)91.2%,為碳排放主要來源,其中工業(yè)的碳排放量占比最高,交通運輸業(yè)的碳排放量及增幅均較為突出。17種終端能源消費中,原煤的碳排放量最高,柴油的碳排放量增幅最大。生活部門內(nèi)部,鄉(xiāng)村碳排放量高于城鎮(zhèn),但增幅小于城鎮(zhèn)。(2)對于生產(chǎn)部門,GDP指標(biāo)為碳排放量第一驅(qū)動因素,最主要的負(fù)向驅(qū)動因素為能源強(qiáng)度,其次為產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)。對于生活部門,人均收入為碳排放量的主要驅(qū)動因素,負(fù)向驅(qū)動的主要因素為能源強(qiáng)度,其次為能源結(jié)構(gòu)。(3)工業(yè)對云南總體碳排放強(qiáng)度的下降起主導(dǎo)作用,交通運輸業(yè)起反作用。工業(yè)和交通運輸業(yè)是導(dǎo)致云南產(chǎn)業(yè)間碳排放強(qiáng)度差異增大的關(guān)鍵因素。工業(yè)碳排放量主要來自原煤、焦炭和電力的消費,在工業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部,能源消費集中于十大高耗能產(chǎn)業(yè),尤其以黑色金屬冶煉及壓延加工業(yè)、化學(xué)原料及化學(xué)品制造業(yè)和非金屬礦物制品業(yè)三大產(chǎn)業(yè)為主。交通運輸業(yè)的發(fā)展則主要基于柴油的消耗。根據(jù)本文分析結(jié)果,基于云南省低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,針對碳減排工作給出合理的措施建議。
[Abstract]:Yunnan Province, as one of the low-carbon pilot projects, in order to achieve low-carbon economic development, it is necessary to vigorously promote energy conservation and emission reduction, and formulate corresponding measures to achieve emission reduction targets at different stages. This paper selects the data of Yunnan terminal energy consumption from 2000 to 2014. Based on the primary energy consumption, and on the basis of referring to the change trend of carbon emission factors of secondary energy (electricity, heat) and the input and export of provincial electric power, the primary energy consumption of each sector is calculated and combined with the consumption of secondary energy. Indirectly calculate the carbon emission factor of secondary energy, and then construct the total carbon dioxide emission model of Yunnan Province by using 17 kinds of energy sources (including electricity and heat) into eight major sectors. The LMDI decomposition method is used to decompose the carbon emissions of Yunnan Province into 5 kinds of factors in the production sector and 11 driving factors of the 6 kinds of factors in the life sector. Focusing on the industrial decomposition analysis of carbon emission intensity in the production sector, and using the Theil index to analyze the differences of carbon emission intensity among industries in Yunnan Province, we can find out the important industries of reducing carbon emissions in Yunnan Province. From 2000 to 2014, the proportion of carbon emissions from the production sector in Yunnan Province was as high as 91.2, which was the main source of carbon emissions, with industry accounting for the highest proportion of carbon emissions. Among the 17 kinds of terminal energy consumption, the carbon emission from raw coal is the highest, and the carbon emission from diesel is increasing the most. Within the living department, the carbon emissions from rural areas are higher than those from towns. However, the increase is smaller than that of town. 2) for the production sector, GDP index is the first driving factor of carbon emissions, the most important negative driving factor is energy intensity, the second is industrial structure. For the living sector, per capita income is the main driving factor of carbon emissions. The main negative driving factor is energy intensity, followed by energy structure. Industry and transportation industry are the key factors leading to the increase of carbon emission intensity difference among Yunnan industries. Industrial carbon emissions mainly come from the consumption of raw coal, coke and electricity, and are within the industrial industry. Energy consumption is concentrated in the top 10 energy-consuming industries, especially in ferrous metal smelting and calender processing industries. Chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing industry and non-metal mineral products industry are three main industries. The development of transportation industry is mainly based on the consumption of diesel oil. According to the results of this paper, based on the development of low carbon economy in Yunnan Province, Some reasonable measures are proposed for carbon abatement.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X32

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