本文選題：復(fù)合生態(tài)系統(tǒng)　切入點(diǎn)：系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)　出處：《山東理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：發(fā)展黃河三角洲高效生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)根本原則是資源高效利用和生態(tài)環(huán)境改善,著力點(diǎn)是優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、完善基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、推進(jìn)基本公共服務(wù)均等化、創(chuàng)新體制機(jī)制,率先轉(zhuǎn)變發(fā)展方式。在此背景下本文以黃河三角洲高效生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)為例,對探索經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)發(fā)展方式進(jìn)行了相關(guān)研究,以期為黃河三角洲高效生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)發(fā)展提供方向。本論文共分為六個部分:第一部分是緒論部分,著重介紹了研究背景與研究意義,在三方面回顧了復(fù)合生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)綜述,并對本文的研究內(nèi)容與論文技術(shù)路線做出了簡單介紹。第二部分是對復(fù)合生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展研究基礎(chǔ)理論進(jìn)行理論概述,著重介紹了復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)理論、可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論、復(fù)合生態(tài)系統(tǒng)理論以及系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)理論的內(nèi)容與方法。第三部分首先確定了以東營和濱州兩市為邊界的研究區(qū)域,然后著重介紹了黃河三角洲高效生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會、生態(tài)以及資源發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,為后續(xù)第四部分建模提供分析基礎(chǔ)。第四部分和第五部分是本文的重點(diǎn),第四部分主要工作是將黃河三角洲高效生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)劃分為經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會、環(huán)境及資源四個子系統(tǒng),并運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)方法構(gòu)建了相應(yīng)的子系統(tǒng)模型以及黃河三角洲復(fù)合生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)總模型;第五部是仿真與預(yù)測,首先運(yùn)用黃河三角洲2005-2014年十年歷史數(shù)據(jù)對模型進(jìn)行了有效性檢驗(yàn),在通過有效性檢驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,本文設(shè)定了四種發(fā)展情景:情景Ⅰ(經(jīng)濟(jì)粗放式發(fā)展模式)、情景Ⅱ(重產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、降低供水缺口、耕地壓力模式)、情景Ⅲ(重產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、降低供水缺口及耕地壓力,輕水環(huán)境保護(hù)模式)、情景Ⅳ(協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展模式)預(yù)測黃河三角洲高效生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)2018-2030年經(jīng)濟(jì)、環(huán)境、資源等發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,綜合對比分析仿真結(jié)果后,認(rèn)為情景Ⅳ(協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展模式)是黃河三角洲高效生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)發(fā)展方向的最優(yōu)情景,并給出了黃河三角洲發(fā)展相應(yīng)的對策建議。第六部分是結(jié)論與展望部分,這部分首先總結(jié)了本文研究的重要結(jié)論,然后提出了本文在建模過程及后續(xù)工作應(yīng)當(dāng)注意的四個方面,為將來完善本研究提供了方向和切入點(diǎn)。
[Abstract]:The fundamental principles of developing the efficient ecological economic zone of the Yellow River Delta are the efficient utilization of resources and the improvement of the ecological environment. The focus is on optimizing the industrial structure, perfecting the infrastructure, promoting the equalization of basic public services, and innovating the system and mechanism. In this context, this paper takes the Yellow River Delta efficient ecological economic zone as an example to explore the development of the economic zone. This paper is divided into six parts: the first part is the introduction part, which mainly introduces the research background and significance. This paper reviews the literature review of the complex ecosystem in three aspects, and briefly introduces the research content and technical route of this paper. The second part is a theoretical overview of the basic theory of the coordinated development of the complex ecological economy system. The contents and methods of complex system theory, sustainable development theory, composite ecosystem theory and system dynamics theory are emphatically introduced. Then it introduces the economic, social, ecological and resource development status of the efficient ecological economic zone of the Yellow River Delta, which provides the analysis basis for the following part four modeling. The fourth and fifth parts are the key points of this paper. The fourth part of the main work is to divide the efficient ecological economic zone of the Yellow River Delta into four subsystems: economy, society, environment and resources. The corresponding subsystem model and the general model of complex eco-economic system dynamics in the Yellow River Delta are constructed by using the system dynamics method. The fifth part is the simulation and prediction. First of all, the validity of the model is tested by using the historical data of the Yellow River Delta from 2005 to 2014, and on the basis of the validity test, This paper sets up four development scenarios: scenario 鈪，

本文編號：1646893