本文選題：農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放　切入點：碳排放效率　出處：《山東理工大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：隨著我國經(jīng)濟的高速增長,伴隨而來的是能源資源的大量消耗,環(huán)境污染及資源枯竭等問題也日益嚴峻,導致溫室氣體的大量排放,相應的,二氧化碳減排問題所帶來的國際壓力也愈發(fā)明顯。據(jù)國際能源署(IEA)初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2016年全球經(jīng)濟增長3.1%,二氧化碳排放量為321億噸,實現(xiàn)連續(xù)三年持平,而中國在2015年的碳排放量超過100億噸,約占全球的30%,成為全球碳排放量最大的國家。據(jù)聯(lián)合國糧農(nóng)組織統(tǒng)計,農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)所排放的二氧化碳等溫室氣體約占到全世界人為溫室氣體排放總量的1/3,農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)所排放的溫室氣體已成為世界溫室氣體排放的第二大來源。中國作為農(nóng)業(yè)大國,形式必然異常嚴峻。在此背景之下本文從區(qū)域?qū)用娴慕嵌瘸霭l(fā)對農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放進行探索研究,以期為區(qū)域碳排放提供參考。本文選擇以山東省為例,通過分析農(nóng)業(yè)系統(tǒng)碳排放源、估算農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放量、評價農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放效率及探討影響農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放效率的因素,最終發(fā)現(xiàn)了山東省在發(fā)展低碳農(nóng)業(yè)過程中存在的問題�；谶@些問題,有針對性的提出山東省現(xiàn)階段開展低碳農(nóng)業(yè)的對策與建議,這對現(xiàn)階段發(fā)展山東省低碳農(nóng)業(yè)具有重要意義。本文主要分為七個部分:第一部分為緒論,主要介紹本文的研究背景及研究意義,對與碳排放相關(guān)的國內(nèi)外研究進行回顧,并對本文所使用的研究方法與研究內(nèi)容做出了基本介紹。第二部分是對農(nóng)業(yè)碳減排理論方面的介紹,主要介紹了評測碳排放效率的理論,為下文對山東省農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放的實證分析做出簡要鋪墊。第三部分首先分析了山東省農(nóng)業(yè)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,進而將山東省農(nóng)業(yè)系統(tǒng)的碳排放源分為十類,對山東省2000—2015年的農(nóng)業(yè)進行碳排放測算。第四部分是本文的重點之一,首先基于DEA方法構(gòu)建出評價農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放效率的指標體系,該指標體系一共包括5個投入指標、2個產(chǎn)出指標和1個非期望產(chǎn)出指標,進而對山東省農(nóng)業(yè)進行碳排放效率評價。在具體的評價過程中,首先利用DEA中的超效率SBM模型對2015年山東省農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放進行效率評價,并和全國31個省、市、自治區(qū)進行橫向?qū)Ρ?然后,利用Malmquist Luenberger指數(shù)對2004-2015年期間的山東省農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放綜合效率進行縱向分析,并對山東省的農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放效率指數(shù)進行了分解,分析了農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進步和農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)效率變動在發(fā)展山東省低碳農(nóng)業(yè)中所起到的作用。第五部分為分析了能夠影響山東省農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放效率的六項因素,并運用多元層次分析對其進行影響因素分析。第六部分為總結(jié)了山東省農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放現(xiàn)狀、農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放效率評價及影響因素分析之后,最后針對性地提出關(guān)于減少山東省農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放的對策建議。最后一部分為結(jié)論與研究展望,首先對本文所做的研究做出總結(jié),其次提出本文研究的不足點,最后對下一步的研究方向做出簡要規(guī)劃。
[Abstract]:With the rapid economic growth of our country, along with the large consumption of energy and resources, environmental pollution and resource depletion are increasingly serious, resulting in a large number of greenhouse gas emissions, corresponding, International pressure on carbon dioxide emissions is also growing. According to preliminary data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), in 2016 the global economy grew 3.1 percent, with 32.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions, the third straight year of flat emissions. In 2015, China's carbon emissions exceeded 10 billion tons, accounting for about 30 percent of the world's carbon emissions, making it the world's largest carbon emitter. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, The carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases emitted by agricultural production account for about one-third of the total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in the world, and the greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production have become the second largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the world. China is a big agricultural country. Under this background, this paper explores and studies agricultural carbon emissions from a regional perspective, in order to provide a reference for regional carbon emissions. This paper chooses Shandong Province as an example, through the analysis of agricultural system carbon emission sources, Estimation of agricultural carbon emissions, evaluation of agricultural carbon emission efficiency and discussion of factors affecting agricultural carbon emission efficiency, finally found the problems existing in the development of low-carbon agriculture in Shandong Province. It is of great significance to develop low-carbon agriculture in Shandong Province at the present stage. This paper is divided into seven parts: the first part is the introduction. This paper mainly introduces the research background and significance of this paper, and reviews the domestic and foreign research related to carbon emissions. In the second part, the theory of carbon emission reduction in agriculture is introduced, and the theory of carbon emission efficiency evaluation is mainly introduced. The third part first analyzes the current situation of agriculture in Shandong Province, and then divides the carbon emission sources of Shandong agricultural system into ten categories. The carbon emission measurement of agriculture in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2015 is one of the emphases of this paper. Firstly, based on the DEA method, an index system to evaluate the efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions is constructed. The index system consists of five input indicators, two output indicators and one non-expected output index, and then evaluates the carbon emission efficiency of agriculture in Shandong Province. In 2015, the efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions in Shandong Province was evaluated by using the super-efficiency SBM model in DEA, and compared with 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China. The comprehensive efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions in Shandong Province from 2004 to 2015 was analyzed longitudinally by using Malmquist Luenberger index, and the agricultural carbon emission efficiency index of Shandong Province was decomposed. This paper analyzes the role of agricultural technology progress and agricultural technology efficiency change in the development of low-carbon agriculture in Shandong Province. 5th is the analysis of six factors that can affect the efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions in Shandong Province. After summarizing the current situation of agricultural carbon emissions in Shandong Province, the evaluation of agricultural carbon emission efficiency and the analysis of the influencing factors, the paper analyzes the factors affecting the carbon emissions in Shandong Province. The last part is the conclusion and research prospect. Firstly, the paper summarizes the research done in this paper, and then puts forward the deficiencies of this study. Finally, a brief plan for the next research direction is made.
【學位授予單位】：山東理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X322;F327;F224

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