本文選題：閘壩調(diào)度管理評估　切入點(diǎn)：BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)　出處：《中國科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：閘壩調(diào)度管理情況反映著閘壩應(yīng)對突發(fā)狀況的能力,對閘壩調(diào)度管理評價進(jìn)行研究具有較為重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)指導(dǎo)意義。閘壩調(diào)度管理評價指標(biāo)體系構(gòu)建的正確和完整與否以及評價方法選擇得當(dāng)與否直接關(guān)系到是否能夠真實(shí)全面地反映閘壩調(diào)度管理情況,科學(xué)、合理的評價指標(biāo)體系與正確的評價方法在閘壩管理、閘壩應(yīng)急調(diào)度等方面都起著重要的作用。論文通過深入探討閘壩調(diào)度管理評估研究背景、意義及國內(nèi)外閘壩調(diào)度管理評估研究現(xiàn)狀,發(fā)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)有的閘壩評估體系只是考慮到了水質(zhì)、水量的調(diào)度評價,考慮的只是閘壩本身而非閘壩調(diào)度管理情況及水生態(tài)相關(guān)影響。所以,現(xiàn)有的閘壩評估體系,存在不足。本文重新思考與定位現(xiàn)有的閘壩調(diào)度管理評價體系,改革原有的不考慮水生態(tài)影響和管理相關(guān)情況的評價模式,建立了科學(xué)的閘壩調(diào)度管理評估新評價體系,通過層次分析(AHP)法求解評價指標(biāo)的權(quán)重,為后續(xù)基于灰色GM(1,1)模型和優(yōu)化的BP人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的評價方法奠定基礎(chǔ)。建立閘壩評估體系后,本文基于GA優(yōu)化的BP人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)(GA-BP)建立了閘壩調(diào)度管理評估模型,基于灰色GM(1,1)模型和優(yōu)化的BP人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)(GM-BP)構(gòu)建了閘壩調(diào)度管理能力評估串并聯(lián)組合模型并進(jìn)行了實(shí)例分析。通過實(shí)例分析,本著科學(xué)性、動態(tài)性、層次性和實(shí)用性的原則,進(jìn)行綜合評判,檢驗(yàn)該模型的科學(xué)程度及可操作性。同時,本文提出的評價方法與其他的評價方法,灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析法、TOPSIS法和FCE法,共7種方法進(jìn)行綜合對比驗(yàn)證,確定選取評估方法的正確性。實(shí)例結(jié)果表明,基于灰色GM(1,1)模型和優(yōu)化的BP人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的方法在處理多層次的、復(fù)雜的以及信息不完全的閘壩調(diào)度管理能力評估問題方面具有有效性、可行性和參考性,為閘壩調(diào)度管理評估問題提供了有益的探索和實(shí)踐。本論文提出的評估方法,不僅會在淮河流域閘壩調(diào)度管理評估工作中發(fā)揮重要作用,同時還會推廣應(yīng)用到全國其它類似河流。因此,本論文取得的成果在淮河流域以及全國其它類似地區(qū)都具有很好的推廣和應(yīng)用前景。
[Abstract]:The operation and management of the gate and dam reflect the ability of the gate and dam to deal with the sudden situation. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the evaluation of gate and dam dispatching management. Whether the evaluation index system of gate and dam dispatching management is correct and complete or not and whether the evaluation method is appropriate or not is directly related to. Whether it can truly and comprehensively reflect the operation and management situation of the gate and dam, Scientific and reasonable evaluation index system and correct evaluation method play an important role in gate dam management, gate dam emergency dispatch and so on. It is found that the existing assessment system only takes into account the water quality and the quantity of water, and the evaluation of water quality and quantity of water is only taken into account in the evaluation of water quality and quantity of water. Only the dam itself is considered, not the dam dispatching and management situation and the influence of water ecology. Therefore, the existing dam assessment system is inadequate. This paper reconsiders and orientates the existing dam dispatching management evaluation system. By reforming the original evaluation model which does not consider the ecological impact of water and the related situation of management, a new evaluation system for dam and gate dispatching management is established, and the weight of the evaluation index is calculated by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. In order to lay a foundation for the subsequent evaluation method based on the grey GMM-1) model and the optimized BP artificial neural network. After the establishment of the gate dam evaluation system, this paper establishes the dam dispatching management evaluation model based on the GA optimized BP artificial neural network (GA-BP). Based on the grey GMX1) model and the optimized BP artificial neural network (GM-BP1), a series-parallel combined model for evaluating the dispatching and management ability of the gate dam is constructed and an example analysis is carried out. Through the example analysis, based on the principles of scientific, dynamic, hierarchical and practicability, At the same time, the evaluation method proposed in this paper is compared with other evaluation methods, grey relational analysis method, TOPSIS method and FCE method. The validity of the selected evaluation method is determined. The results of an example show that the method based on the grey GM1 / 1) model and the optimized BP artificial neural network is used to deal with multi-level, The evaluation problem of complex and incomplete dam dispatching management ability is effective, feasible and referential, which provides a useful exploration and practice for the assessment of gate and dam dispatching management. Not only will it play an important role in the management and evaluation of dam and gate operation in the Huaihe River Basin, but it will also be popularized and applied to other similar rivers throughout the country. The results obtained in this paper have a good prospect of popularization and application in Huaihe River Basin and other similar areas in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TV698;X52

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