本文關(guān)鍵詞： 經(jīng)濟增長 工業(yè)“三廢”排放 協(xié)整檢驗 系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)　出處：《青海大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：最近幾年,霧霾天氣的頻繁出現(xiàn)給生產(chǎn)生活帶來了極大不便,甚至威脅到人們的身體健康,工業(yè)發(fā)展造成的環(huán)境污染問題受到前所未有的關(guān)注,人民群眾對良好生態(tài)環(huán)境的呼聲越來越高。自黨的十八大以來,生態(tài)環(huán)境保護被放在了更加重要的戰(zhàn)略位置。青海省是長江、黃河、瀾滄江的發(fā)源地,其生態(tài)地位在國家戰(zhàn)略全局中非常重要。對于青海省這樣一個經(jīng)濟小省、生態(tài)大省來說,如何在發(fā)展經(jīng)濟的同時,做好生態(tài)環(huán)境保護工作,實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟與環(huán)境的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,不僅是實現(xiàn)自身發(fā)展的需要,而且也是服務(wù)國家大局的需要。因此,本文選取青海省為研究區(qū)域,目的在于明晰青海省生態(tài)環(huán)境質(zhì)量隨經(jīng)濟增長的變化情況,為青海省環(huán)境保護政策的制定提供參考。本文對青海省工業(yè)經(jīng)濟增長與工業(yè)“三廢”排放關(guān)系的研究分為兩個步驟:第一步是在經(jīng)濟增長理論及環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線假說的基礎(chǔ)上,通過查詢《青海省統(tǒng)計年鑒》與《青海省環(huán)境統(tǒng)計公報》等相關(guān)資料,獲取青海省1990—2014年間的工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值與工業(yè)廢水排放量、工業(yè)廢氣排放量、工業(yè)固體廢棄物排放量的數(shù)據(jù),使用Eviews8.0軟件對這些時間變量序列進行協(xié)整檢驗與格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗。第二步根據(jù)以上分析結(jié)果,運用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的方法,借助Vensim軟件,對青海省經(jīng)濟—環(huán)境系統(tǒng)進行結(jié)構(gòu)分析,畫出因果關(guān)系圖與系統(tǒng)流圖,輸入系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)方程,建立系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型,模擬系統(tǒng)運行機制,進行仿真實驗,預(yù)測青海省2015—2040年間的工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值與工業(yè)“三廢”的變化情況。本文的研究結(jié)論是:(1)青海省工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值與工業(yè)“三廢”排放存在長期趨勢關(guān)系,并且青海省工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值與工業(yè)“三廢”排放之間存在格蘭杰因果關(guān)系:工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值是工業(yè)“三廢”排放的格蘭杰原因,同時工業(yè)“三廢”排放也是工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值的格蘭杰原因,即青海省工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值與工業(yè)“三廢”排放相互影響。(2)1990—2040年間,青海省工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值呈上升趨勢,由1990年的21.23億元增加到2040年的6251.32億元;工業(yè)廢水在2034年之前呈上升趨勢,2034達到頂峰后呈下降趨勢;工業(yè)廢氣在2027年之前呈上升趨勢,2027年達到頂峰后呈下降趨勢;工業(yè)固體廢棄物在2030年之前呈上升趨勢,2030年達到頂峰后呈下降趨勢。總體而言,青海省工業(yè)經(jīng)濟增長與工業(yè)“三廢”排放呈倒“U”型曲線關(guān)系,在2030年前后到達排放拐點,符合EKC假說。(3)加強環(huán)境保護力度,加大環(huán)境治理投資對減輕污染,對EKC拐點早日到來有至關(guān)重要的作用。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the frequent appearance of haze weather has brought great inconvenience to production and life, and even threatened people's health. The environmental pollution caused by industrial development has received unprecedented attention. Since the 18 Party Congress, ecological environment protection has been placed in a more important strategic position. Qinghai Province is the birthplace of Yangtze River, Yellow River and Lancang River. Its ecological status is very important in the overall situation of national strategy. For a small economic province such as Qinghai Province, ecological province, how to do a good job of ecological environment protection while developing economy. To realize the coordinated development of economy and environment is not only the need to realize its own development, but also the need to serve the overall situation of the country. Therefore, this paper selects Qinghai Province as the research area. The purpose is to clarify the changes of ecological environment quality with economic growth in Qinghai Province. In this paper, the relationship between industrial economic growth and industrial "three wastes" emissions in Qinghai Province is divided into two steps:. The first step is based on economic growth theory and environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. Through the inquiry of Qinghai Statistical Yearbook and Qinghai Environment Statistics Bulletin, the total industrial output value, industrial waste water discharge and industrial waste gas discharge from 1990 to 2014 were obtained. Industrial solid waste emissions data, using Eviews8.0 software to these time series cointegration test and Granger causality test. The second step based on the above analysis results. By using the method of system dynamics and with the help of Vensim software, the structure of Qinghai economic-environment system is analyzed, the causality diagram and system flow diagram are drawn, and the system dynamics equation is inputted. Establish the system dynamics model, simulate the system running mechanism, carry on the simulation experiment. The change of total industrial output value and industrial "three wastes" in Qinghai Province during 2015-2040 is predicted. The conclusion of this paper is: 1). There is a long-term trend relationship between total industrial output value and industrial "three wastes" emissions in Qinghai Province. And there is a Granger causality relationship between the total industrial output value and the industrial "three wastes" emissions in Qinghai Province: the gross industrial output value is the Granger cause of the industrial "three wastes" emissions. At the same time, the discharge of industrial "three wastes" is also the Granger cause of the total industrial output value, that is, the interaction between the total industrial output value of Qinghai Province and the industrial "three wastes" emissions from 1990 to 2040. The total industrial output value of Qinghai Province increased from two billion one hundred and twenty-three million yuan in 1990 to six hundred and twenty-five billion one hundred and thirty-two million yuan in 2040; Industrial wastewater showed an increasing trend before 2034. Industrial exhaust gas showed an upward trend before 2027 and a downward trend after reaching its peak in 2027. Industrial solid waste showed an upward trend before 2030 and a downward trend after reaching its peak in 2030. The relationship between industrial economic growth and industrial "three wastes" emissions in Qinghai Province is in the form of inverted "U" curve. It reached the inflection point of discharge around 2030, in line with the EKC hypothesis. 3) strengthening environmental protection. Increasing investment in environmental control plays an important role in reducing pollution and coming EKC inflexion as soon as possible.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：青海大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X70;F427

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