本文關(guān)鍵詞： 甘肅省 平滑轉(zhuǎn)移回歸 經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng) 環(huán)境系統(tǒng)　出處：《蘭州財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展問(wèn)題是當(dāng)今生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中研究的熱點(diǎn),對(duì)二者之間關(guān)系的深入探討有助于了解經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)與環(huán)境系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行規(guī)律,對(duì)實(shí)現(xiàn)區(qū)域性經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展有重要的指導(dǎo)意義。甘肅省位于我國(guó)西北地區(qū),處于青藏高原、黃土高原和內(nèi)蒙古高原的交匯處,地域狹長(zhǎng),地理位置特殊,決定了甘肅省生態(tài)環(huán)境的脆弱性和多樣性,同時(shí),甘肅省在“一帶一路”的發(fā)展規(guī)劃中占據(jù)著重要的戰(zhàn)略位置。對(duì)甘肅省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與環(huán)境的協(xié)調(diào)性研究有助于甘肅省的可持續(xù)發(fā)展,對(duì)“一帶一路”的戰(zhàn)略實(shí)施具有重要意義。基于以上考慮,本文采用動(dòng)態(tài)分析與靜態(tài)分析,定性與定量分析相結(jié)合的方法,首先,將甘肅省近幾十年經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境的發(fā)展特征進(jìn)行了靜態(tài)的統(tǒng)計(jì)描述。其次,根據(jù)指標(biāo)特征,采用平滑轉(zhuǎn)移回歸模型研究了經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展對(duì)環(huán)境的動(dòng)態(tài)影響,深度探討了人均GDP與環(huán)境之間的非線(xiàn)性關(guān)系。最后。在經(jīng)濟(jì)子系統(tǒng)和環(huán)境子系統(tǒng)中,分別選取10個(gè)指標(biāo),結(jié)合偏最小二乘路徑分析法和灰理論對(duì)甘肅省2014年14個(gè)地級(jí)市的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r進(jìn)行了分析,具體研究結(jié)果表明。第一,甘肅省人均GDP一直保持穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng),但與全國(guó)的差距卻逐年增大,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)分布的不合理是造成這一現(xiàn)象的一個(gè)重要原因。甘肅省對(duì)工業(yè)廢水的排放有較好的遏制,并且變化率比較平穩(wěn)。工業(yè)廢氣的排放和工業(yè)固體的產(chǎn)生量逐年增加,變化率具有波動(dòng)性。第二,人均GDP與人均三廢排放之間均存在非線(xiàn)性關(guān)系,經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展對(duì)人均工業(yè)固體產(chǎn)生量有正的影響,并有加大的趨勢(shì)。人均工業(yè)廢氣排放與人均GDP之間存在正“U”型關(guān)系,轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)為2004年,在2004年之前,經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)有助于減少?gòu)U水的排放,2004年之后,經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展會(huì)加大工業(yè)廢氣的排放。相比于工業(yè)廢氣和工業(yè)廢物,甘肅省對(duì)工業(yè)廢水排放的遏制相對(duì)較好,并在2001年到2010年期間,人均GDP的增長(zhǎng)對(duì)人均工業(yè)廢水的排放的影響系數(shù)為0.2986,即人均GDP每增長(zhǎng)1%,工業(yè)廢水的排放將減少0.2986%。第三,本文采用打分制對(duì)甘肅省14個(gè)地級(jí)市的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r進(jìn)行了對(duì)比,由于各個(gè)地級(jí)市地理位置和生態(tài)環(huán)境存在差異,因此本文提出因地制宜,發(fā)展地方特色的策略,找出協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展得分較高的地級(jí)市,來(lái)帶動(dòng)甘肅省其他地級(jí)市的發(fā)展,同時(shí),促進(jìn)甘肅省整體的發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The coordinated development of economy and environment is a hot topic in ecological economics nowadays. It is helpful to understand the law of operation of economic system and environment system by deeply discussing the relationship between them. Gansu Province is located in the northwest of China, located in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the intersection of the Loess Plateau and the Inner Mongolia Plateau, the region is long and narrow, and the geographical location is special. It determines the fragility and diversity of the ecological environment in Gansu Province at the same time. Gansu Province occupies an important strategic position in the development planning of "Belt and Road". The study on the coordination of economic development and environment in Gansu Province is helpful to the sustainable development of Gansu Province. On the basis of the above considerations, this paper adopts the method of combining dynamic analysis with static analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The characteristics of economic and environmental development in Gansu Province in recent decades are described statically. Secondly, according to the characteristics of indicators, the smooth transfer regression model is used to study the dynamic impact of economic development on the environment. The nonlinear relationship between per capita GDP and environment is discussed in depth. Finally, 10 indexes are selected in the economic subsystem and the environment subsystem. Combined with partial least squares path analysis and grey theory, this paper analyzes the coordinated development of economic environment in 14 prefecture-level cities in Gansu province in 2014. The specific results show that the first. The per capita GDP of Gansu Province has maintained a steady growth, but the gap with the whole country has been increasing year by year. The unreasonable distribution of industrial structure is an important reason for this phenomenon. The discharge of industrial wastewater in Gansu Province is well controlled. And the rate of change is relatively stable. Industrial waste gas emissions and industrial solid production increased year by year, the rate of change has volatility. Second, there is a nonlinear relationship between per capita GDP and per capita emissions of three wastes. The development of economy has a positive effect on the per capita industrial solid production and has a tendency to increase. There is a positive "U" type relationship between per capita industrial waste gas emissions and per capita GDP, and the turning point is 2004. Before 2004, economic growth helped to reduce waste water emissions, and after 2004, economic growth would increase emissions from industrial waste, compared with industrial waste and industrial waste. The control of industrial wastewater discharge in Gansu Province is relatively good, and between 2001 and 2010, the influence coefficient of per capita GDP growth on the discharge of industrial wastewater per capita is 0.2986. That is, per capita GDP growth of 1, the discharge of industrial wastewater will be reduced by 0.2986. Third, this paper compares the coordinated development of 14 prefecture-level cities in Gansu Province by using a scoring system. Because there are differences in geographical location and ecological environment of each prefecture-level city, this paper puts forward the strategy of developing local characteristics according to local conditions, and finds out the prefecture-level city with higher score of coordinated development. To drive the development of other prefecture-level cities in Gansu Province, at the same time, to promote the overall development of Gansu Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：X22;F127

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