本文關(guān)鍵詞：北京市空氣質(zhì)量與機(jī)動(dòng)車尾氣排放量關(guān)系研究　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 機(jī)動(dòng)車污染物 空氣質(zhì)量 灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度

【摘要】：本文以研究北京市空氣質(zhì)量與機(jī)動(dòng)車尾氣排放量的關(guān)系為目標(biāo),運(yùn)用機(jī)動(dòng)車尾氣排放量測(cè)算模型估計(jì)北京市機(jī)動(dòng)車碳?xì)浠衔�、一氧化碳、氮氧化物、PM_(10)、二氧化硫排放量,使用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度理論確定顯著影響北京市空氣質(zhì)量的因素,繼而建立起北京市空氣質(zhì)量與機(jī)動(dòng)車尾氣排放量的關(guān)系模型,得出相應(yīng)的結(jié)論。首先對(duì)近幾年北京市的主要污染物變化規(guī)律進(jìn)行分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)北京市的空氣質(zhì)量呈現(xiàn)出一定的季節(jié)性和區(qū)域性,污染物濃度整體上出現(xiàn)6月至9月濃度低,而11月至1月濃度高的情況。經(jīng)過探討發(fā)現(xiàn)影響北京市空氣質(zhì)量的因素有很多,主要有地理、氣象、人類活動(dòng),其中人類活動(dòng)因素是造成空氣質(zhì)量惡化的主要原因。其次對(duì)北京市機(jī)動(dòng)車尾氣排放量分車型進(jìn)行測(cè)量。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),私人汽車在四種車型中尾氣排放所占比例最大,高達(dá)95%以上,而重型載貨汽車的分擔(dān)率在2009年至2010年、2014年至2015年都有所下降,而公共汽車的污染物排放分擔(dān)率一直保持一直不變,約為1.5%。最后探討了北京市空氣質(zhì)量與機(jī)動(dòng)車尾氣排放量的關(guān)系。本文使用絕對(duì)灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度、廣義灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度判斷出影響北京市空氣質(zhì)量的顯著性因素,發(fā)現(xiàn)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、林木綠化率、燃煤量、機(jī)動(dòng)車保有量、機(jī)動(dòng)車主要污染物排放量能起到顯著影響北京市空氣質(zhì)量的效果。鑒于機(jī)動(dòng)車保有量與機(jī)動(dòng)車尾氣排放量存在直接的線性關(guān)系,因此使用除機(jī)動(dòng)車保有量因素以外的顯著性因素作為自變量建立多元回歸模型,從模型中看出國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值系數(shù)都為負(fù)數(shù),說明國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的增加,并沒有增加北京市污染物的排放量,反而減少了北京市污染物的排放量。同時(shí)機(jī)動(dòng)車的污染物排放能夠解釋北京市一氧化碳排放量的72.82%,其他因素例如燃煤等占了 27.18%,表明它是北京市一氧化碳的主要來源。本文討論的機(jī)動(dòng)車保有量?jī)H限在北京市地區(qū)登記的機(jī)動(dòng)車車輛,并不包括外地進(jìn)京車輛,說明就目前的限制外地進(jìn)京車輛政策的力度而言,北京市一氧化碳的排放量高的原因就在于本地機(jī)動(dòng)車尾氣排放,而不是外地車排放。另外燃煤對(duì)北京市氮氧化物的影響較大,燃煤量能夠解釋其變化的40.5%。
[Abstract]:In order to study the relationship between air quality and vehicle exhaust emissions in Beijing, this paper estimates motor vehicle hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides by using the motor vehicle exhaust emission measurement model. The grey correlation degree theory is used to determine the factors that significantly affect the air quality in Beijing, and the model of the relationship between the air quality of Beijing and the exhaust emissions of motor vehicles is established. First of all, the changes of main pollutants in Beijing are analyzed, and it is found that the air quality of Beijing is seasonal and regional. The concentration of pollutants is low from June to September and high from November to November. It is found that there are many factors affecting air quality in Beijing, including geography, meteorology and human activities. Human activity is the main cause of the deterioration of air quality. Secondly, the emission of motor vehicles in Beijing is measured. Private vehicles account for the largest share of emissions of more than 95% among the four models, while the share of heavy-duty vehicles declined from 2009 to 2010 and 2014 to 2014. But the pollutant emission sharing rate of the bus has been kept constant, about 1.5. Finally, the relationship between the air quality and the exhaust emission of motor vehicles in Beijing is discussed. The absolute grey correlation degree is used in this paper. The generalized grey correlation degree judges the significant factors that affect the air quality in Beijing, and finds out the gross domestic product (GDP), the green rate of trees, the amount of coal burning and the quantity of motor vehicles. The emission of major pollutants from motor vehicles can significantly affect the air quality in Beijing, since there is a direct linear relationship between vehicle ownership and vehicle exhaust emissions. Therefore, using significant factors other than motor vehicle ownership factors as independent variables to establish a multivariate regression model, from the model we can see that the GDP coefficient is negative, indicating the increase of GDP. Instead of increasing the amount of pollutants emitted in Beijing, the emissions from motor vehicles can account for 72.82% of Beijing's emissions of carbon monoxide. Other factors, such as coal burning, account for 27.18, indicating that it is the main source of carbon monoxide in Beijing. Do not include foreign vehicles to Beijing, indicating that the current restrictions on the intensity of foreign vehicles entering Beijing, the high emissions of carbon monoxide in Beijing is due to local motor vehicle emissions. In addition, coal combustion has a greater impact on nitrogen oxides in Beijing, and coal combustion can explain 40.5 percent of the change.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：X734.2;X51

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