本文關鍵詞：基于靜態(tài)與動態(tài)空間面板模型分析城鎮(zhèn)化對霧霾的影響　出處：《農業(yè)工程學報》2017年20期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關文章： 污染 模型 霧霾 城鎮(zhèn)化 能源強度 交通壓力 動態(tài)空間面板

【摘要】：該研究以中國30省區(qū)為研究對象,首先考察了霧霾污染的空間效應。全局Moran’s I指數為0.3875,中國霧霾污染存在著空間集聚。Moran’s I指數散點圖顯示中國霧霾污染存在著正的空間自相關,絕大部分省區(qū)位于高-高集聚和低-低集聚。然后,基于霧霾污染的空間效應,建立靜態(tài)與動態(tài)空間面板計量經濟學模型,實證考察了城鎮(zhèn)化、能源強度、交通壓力等對霧霾污染的影響。城鎮(zhèn)化與霧霾污染之間存在環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線;交通壓力每上升一個百分點,將使霧霾污染上升0.2075個百分點。從效應的分解來看,該地區(qū)以及全局城鎮(zhèn)化與霧霾污染之間存在環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線。人均GDP的間接效應、總效應顯著為負,該地區(qū)人均收入的上升可以使相鄰地區(qū)的霧霾污染下降,并且會減少全局霧霾污染。能源強度下降會減輕本地區(qū)霧霾污染程度,但會導致相鄰地區(qū)霧霾污染上升。能源消費結構直接效應為正,間接效應與總效應顯著為正,煤炭消費比例的下降不但會減少本地區(qū)霧霾污染,也會顯著抑制相鄰地區(qū)的霧霾污染,進而減少全局霧霾污染。交通壓力的直接效應顯著為正,但間接效應顯著為負,交通壓力的上升會明顯加重本地區(qū)霧霾污染程度,然而相鄰地區(qū)交通壓力上升會抑制本地區(qū)霧霾污染。動態(tài)空間杜賓面板計量模型中被解釋變量滯后一期系數高達0.6114,且通過了1%水平下的顯著性檢驗,中國霧霾污染存在時空依賴。動態(tài)空間面板計量模型比靜態(tài)更為合適,估計結果更為準確,遺漏因素對霧霾污染的影響也很重要。
[Abstract]:In this study, the spatial effects of haze pollution were investigated in 30 provinces of China. The global Moran's I index was 0.3875. Spatial concentration of smog pollution in China. Morantes I index scatter plot shows that there is a positive spatial autocorrelation of smog pollution in China. Most provinces and regions are located in high-high concentration and low-low concentration. Then. Based on the spatial effect of haze pollution, the econometrics models of static and dynamic spatial panel are established, and the urbanization and energy intensity are investigated empirically. The influence of traffic pressure on haze pollution. There is an environmental Kuznets curve between urbanization and haze pollution. For every one percentage point increase in traffic pressure, smog pollution will rise by 0.2075 percentage points. There is an environmental Kuznets curve between urbanization and haze pollution in this area. The indirect effect of per capita GDP is significant negative. Rising per capita income in the region could reduce smog pollution in neighbouring regions and reduce overall smog pollution. A drop in energy intensity would reduce the level of smog pollution in the region. The direct effect of energy consumption structure is positive, the indirect effect and total effect are significantly positive, and the decrease of coal consumption ratio will not only reduce the haze pollution in this region. The direct effect of traffic pressure was significantly positive, but the indirect effect was significantly negative. The increase of traffic pressure will obviously aggravate the pollution of haze in this area. However, the increase of traffic pressure in adjacent areas will restrain the haze pollution in the region. The lag coefficient of the explained variables in the dynamic space Doberbin panel metering model is as high as 0.6114. Through the significance test at 1% level, the haze pollution in China is spatio-temporal dependent. The dynamic spatial panel metering model is more suitable than the static state, and the estimation results are more accurate. The influence of omission factors on haze pollution is also very important.
【作者單位】： 南京航空航天大學經濟與管理學院;南京曉莊學院商學院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金項目(71573138) 江蘇省教育廳哲學社會科學研究指導項目(2016SJD790011) 江蘇省高�！扒嗨{工程”資助 江蘇高校境外研修計劃資助
【分類號】：F299.21;X513
【正文快照】： 0引言2016年8月26日審議通過的“健康中國2030”規(guī)劃綱要是履行中國對聯(lián)合國“2030可持續(xù)發(fā)展議程”承諾的重要舉措�！敖】抵袊�2030”規(guī)劃綱要以提高人民健康水平為核心,著力營造綠色安全的健康環(huán)境。近幾年,一些城市的霧霾天數增多,對居民身心健康帶來了負面影響,引起了國內，

本文編號：1425147