【摘要】：2013年習(xí)近平總書(shū)記提出構(gòu)建“絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶”和21世紀(jì)“海上絲綢之路”簡(jiǎn)稱“一帶一路”的戰(zhàn)略構(gòu)想。在“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略的大背景下,如何發(fā)揮本國(guó)優(yōu)勢(shì),盡力排除阻礙雙邊貿(mào)易的各種因素,充分挖掘與沿線國(guó)家和區(qū)域的貿(mào)易潛力,加強(qiáng)與沿線國(guó)家的貿(mào)易往來(lái)成為中國(guó)發(fā)展國(guó)際貿(mào)易的重點(diǎn)。本文選取“一帶一路”沿線77個(gè)國(guó)家為研究樣本,對(duì)中國(guó)與沿線國(guó)家貿(mào)易發(fā)展情況、潛力和影響因素進(jìn)行研究。首先通過(guò)現(xiàn)狀分析,分析了2001-2015年“一帶一路”國(guó)家在中國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易中的地位變化,中國(guó)與沿線貿(mào)易的區(qū)域結(jié)構(gòu)和貿(mào)易商品結(jié)構(gòu)以及貿(mào)易差額變化。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)“一帶一路”沿線是中國(guó)重要的進(jìn)出口市場(chǎng),中國(guó)對(duì)“一帶一路”沿線進(jìn)出口商品中,化學(xué)制品、塑料和橡膠和交通運(yùn)輸設(shè)備等產(chǎn)品未來(lái)貿(mào)易潛力較大。不同國(guó)家和區(qū)域由于資源稟賦不同,中國(guó)與之貿(mào)易的商品結(jié)構(gòu)也有所差異。然后將隨機(jī)前沿方法運(yùn)用到傳統(tǒng)的引力模型中,建立時(shí)變隨機(jī)前沿引力模型,通過(guò)實(shí)證研究,探討影響中國(guó)與“一帶一路”國(guó)家貿(mào)易的自然影響因素和貿(mào)易潛力,最后在此基礎(chǔ)之上采用一步法建立貿(mào)易非效率模型分析了影響貿(mào)易的人為因素。實(shí)證研究表明,兩國(guó)人均GDP、人口和距離是影響中國(guó)與沿線貿(mào)易的重要因素,共同邊界爭(zhēng)端問(wèn)題處理好的基礎(chǔ)上,兩國(guó)具有共同邊界能夠促進(jìn)貿(mào)易往來(lái)。由于中國(guó)與“一帶一路”國(guó)家的貿(mào)易受到是否簽訂自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定、貿(mào)易及運(yùn)輸相關(guān)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施質(zhì)量、海關(guān)手續(xù)效率、經(jīng)濟(jì)自由度和班輪運(yùn)輸相關(guān)指數(shù)等人為阻礙因素的影響,中國(guó)與沿線國(guó)家的貿(mào)易仍有較大的潛力,“一帶一路”各國(guó)中屬于潛力巨大型的國(guó)家較多。為了進(jìn)一步提高貿(mào)易效率,應(yīng)加強(qiáng)貿(mào)易基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的建設(shè)和改善,妥善處理國(guó)家邊界爭(zhēng)端問(wèn)題,提高貿(mào)易便利化水平,并針對(duì)不同區(qū)域采取相應(yīng)的貿(mào)易策略等。
[Abstract]:In 2013, General Secretary Xi Jinping put forward the strategic idea of constructing "Silk Road Economic Belt" and "Maritime Silk Road" for short "Belt and Road" in the 21st century. Against the background of the "Belt and Road" strategy, how to give full play to our national advantages, try our best to remove all kinds of factors that hinder bilateral trade, and fully tap the trade potential with countries and regions along the route, Strengthening trade with countries along the route has become the focus of China's development of international trade. In this paper, 77 countries along Belt and Road are selected as research samples to study the development, potential and influencing factors of trade between China and the countries along the route. Firstly, the paper analyzes the status change of "Belt and Road" country in China's foreign trade from 2001 to 2015, the regional structure of China's trade with China along the route, the commodity structure of trade and the change of trade balance. It is found that Belt and Road is an important import and export market in China, and China has a great potential for future trade in chemical products, plastics, rubber and transportation equipment. Different countries and regions have different commodity structure because of different resource endowment. Then the stochastic frontier method is applied to the traditional gravity model, and the time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model is established. Through empirical research, the natural factors and trade potential that affect the trade between China and Belt and Road are discussed. Finally, a one-step trade inefficiency model is used to analyze the human factors affecting trade. The empirical study shows that the average GDP, population and distance are the important factors that affect the trade between China and China along the route. On the basis of dealing well with the issue of common border dispute, the common border between the two countries can promote trade exchanges. China's trade with "Belt and Road" countries is affected by man-made obstacles such as whether to sign free trade agreements, the quality of trade and transport-related infrastructure, the efficiency of customs procedures, the degree of economic freedom and the liner shipping related index. China's trade with countries along the route still has great potential, and Belt and Road is a large potential country. In order to further improve trade efficiency, we should strengthen the construction and improvement of trade infrastructure, properly deal with national border disputes, improve the level of trade facilitation, and adopt corresponding trade strategies for different regions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華僑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F752.7

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