【摘要】：本文運用網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析方法(Network Analysis)研究了2005年以來"一帶一路"沿線國家貨物貿(mào)易的競爭互補關(guān)系及動態(tài)變化。研究表明:(1)近10年,"一帶一路"沿線國家貿(mào)易關(guān)系日趨增強,貿(mào)易網(wǎng)絡(luò)密度增加,貿(mào)易集中化趨勢明顯,貿(mào)易競爭加劇,但貿(mào)易互補大于貿(mào)易競爭。(2)"一帶一路"沿線國家有兩個重要貿(mào)易板塊,一是由俄羅斯、中東歐等國家組成的內(nèi)部型板塊;另一個是由中國、印度等亞洲國家組成的內(nèi)部與外部貿(mào)易關(guān)系都比較密切的兼顧型板塊。(3)還有一個主要由中國和中東歐國家組成的貿(mào)易互補板塊,這一板塊是中國最重要的貿(mào)易伙伴。(4)"一帶一路"沿線國家呈現(xiàn)"三足鼎立"的貿(mào)易競爭局面:第一競爭群體是以俄羅斯為首的石油資源國家;第二群體以印度、新加坡為首;第三群體以中國為首,由部分中東歐國家和獨聯(lián)體國家組成。基于此,本文提出了相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the competition complementarity and dynamic changes of goods trade between "Belt and Road" and "Belt and Road" countries since 2005 by using network analysis method (Network Analysis). The results are as follows: (1) in the past 10 years, the trade relations of the countries along the route of "Belt and Road" have been increasingly strengthened, the density of trade networks has increased, the trend of trade concentration has been obvious, and trade competition has intensified. However, trade complementation is greater than trade competition. (2) there are two important trade sectors in the countries along "Belt and Road", one is the internal plate composed of Russia, Central and Eastern Europe and other countries; The other is an internal and external trade sector composed of China, India, and other Asian countries. (3) there is also a complementary trade sector composed mainly of China and Central and Eastern European countries. This sector is China's most important trading partner. (4) the countries along "Belt and Road" present a "three-pedal" situation of trade competition: the first competition group is the oil resource country led by Russia; The second group, led by India and Singapore, and the third group, led by China, are composed of some central and eastern European countries and CIS countries. Based on this, this paper puts forward the relevant policy recommendations.
【作者單位】： 重慶工商大學(xué);重慶大學(xué);云南財經(jīng)大學(xué);重慶市人民政府發(fā)展研究中心;重慶社會科學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家社科基金重點項目(項目批準(zhǔn)號:13AJY006) 國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(項目批準(zhǔn)號:71063022、71133004) 重慶市哲學(xué)社會科學(xué)重大項目《“一帶一路”沿線國家貿(mào)易競爭與互補關(guān)系研究》(項目批準(zhǔn)號:2015ZD10)的資助 全國文化名家暨“四個一批”人才項目 云南省“百人計劃” 重慶市哲學(xué)社會科學(xué)領(lǐng)軍人才特殊支持計劃 重慶工商大學(xué)教育部人文社科重點研究基地長江上游經(jīng)濟研究中心 重慶“一帶一路”投資與貿(mào)易研究中心的支持
【分類號】：F746

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