【摘要】：2013年“絲綢之路經(jīng)濟帶”和“21世紀(jì)海上絲綢之路”的概念首次提出,“一帶一路”成為二十一世紀(jì)最熱門的話題之一。隨著“一帶一路”進程的逐步推進,“一帶一路”倡議將會給沿線許多國家的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展史留下濃墨重彩的一筆。在這一背景下,中國企業(yè)也加快走去出的步伐,加大對“一帶一路”沿線國家的投資,中國的對外直接投資進程進入到快速發(fā)展階段。自“一帶一路”倡議提出以來,國內(nèi)學(xué)術(shù)界圍繞“一帶一路”進行了較多的討論分析。早期關(guān)于“一帶一路”的研究,多集中于論證“一帶一路”倡議帶給我國的機遇,如促進了中國的對外直接投資、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級以及人民幣國際化等,然而隨著“一帶一路”倡議的進一步推進,識別中國對“一帶一路”沿線國家直接投資過程中面臨的各種風(fēng)險已經(jīng)變得越來重要。充分了解中國對“一帶一路”沿線各國直接投資可能面臨的各種風(fēng)險,將有利于中國對“一帶一路”沿線國家直接投資的區(qū)位選擇,將有利于把直接投資風(fēng)險防范于未然,這也是本文的寫作目的所在。本文總共五章,分為三部分:第一部分包括第一章緒論和第二章中國對“一帶一路”沿線國家直接投資的現(xiàn)狀。這一部分首先歸納總結(jié)前人對對外直接投資過程中面臨的各類風(fēng)險、風(fēng)險的度量以及風(fēng)險控制的研究成果。其次,從基本格局、地區(qū)分布、行業(yè)分布、投資主體等不同角度分析了中國對“一帶一路”沿線國家直接投資的現(xiàn)狀。第一部分為本文之后的寫作奠定基礎(chǔ)。第二部分包括第三章中國對“一帶一路”沿線國家直接投資風(fēng)險分析和第四章中國對“一帶一路”沿線國家直接投資風(fēng)險的實證研究。第二部分是本文的核心,首先根據(jù)“一帶一路”沿線各國的實際情況對沿線國家的直接投資風(fēng)險進行定性研究。在此基礎(chǔ)上采用因子分析方法對“一帶一路”沿線64個國家的政治風(fēng)險、經(jīng)濟風(fēng)險和總體的直接投資風(fēng)險進行實證研究,得出“一帶一路”沿線64個國家各風(fēng)險相對大小的排序。第三部分包括第五章結(jié)論及政策建議。在對全文的研究分析進行總結(jié)的基礎(chǔ)上,對中國對“一帶一路”沿線國家進行直接投資過程中面臨的風(fēng)險提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。文章在分析了中國對“一帶一路”沿線國家直接投資現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,研究了中國對“一帶一路”沿線國家直接投資的各類風(fēng)險,并對兩大類風(fēng)險及總體的風(fēng)險水平進行了定量分析,同時提出了相應(yīng)的應(yīng)對策略。對沿線64個國家各風(fēng)險的比較,將為中國的對外直接投資提供參考依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:In 2013, the concepts of "Silk Road Economic Belt" and "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" were first proposed, and "Belt and Road" became one of the hottest topics in the 21 century. With the gradual development of Belt and Road, the Belt and Road initiative will leave a great deal of light in the history of economic development of many countries along the route. Under this background, Chinese enterprises have also stepped up the pace of going out, increasing their investment in countries along the "Belt and Road", and the process of China's foreign direct investment has entered a stage of rapid development. Since the "Belt and Road" initiative was put forward, the domestic academic circles have carried on more discussion and analysis around "Belt and Road". Early studies on "Belt and Road" focused on the opportunities that the "Belt and Road" initiative had brought to China, such as promoting China's foreign direct investment, upgrading its industrial structure, and internationalizing the renminbi. However, with the further development of the "Belt and Road" initiative, it has become increasingly important to identify the risks faced by China in its direct investment process in countries along the "Belt and Road" route. To fully understand the various risks that China may face in direct investment in countries along "Belt and Road" will be conducive to the location choice of China's direct investment in countries along "Belt and Road", and will be conducive to preventing the risk of direct investment from occurring in the first place. This is also the purpose of this paper. This paper consists of five chapters: the first part includes the introduction of the first chapter and the second chapter is the current situation of China's direct investment in the countries along "Belt and Road". In this part, the author first summarizes the research results of various kinds of risks, risk measurement and risk control in the process of foreign direct investment (OFDI). Secondly, this paper analyzes the current situation of China's direct investment in the countries along the Belt and Road from the basic pattern, regional distribution, industry distribution, investment main body and other different angles. The first part lays the foundation for the later writing. The second part includes the third chapter China's direct investment risk analysis of the countries along the "Belt and Road" and the fourth chapter the empirical study of China's direct investment risk along "Belt and Road" countries. The second part is the core of this paper. Firstly, according to the actual situation of the countries along the "Belt and Road", the risk of direct investment in the countries along the route is qualitatively studied. On the basis of this, an empirical study on the political risk, economic risk and overall direct investment risk of 64 countries along "Belt and Road" is carried out by using factor analysis method. The ranking of the relative size of each risk in 64 countries along the "Belt and Road" is obtained. The third part includes chapter five conclusions and policy recommendations. On the basis of summarizing the research and analysis of the full text, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions on the risks that China faces in the process of direct investment in countries along "Belt and Road". On the basis of analyzing the current situation of China's direct investment in countries along "Belt and Road", this paper studies the risks of China's direct investment in countries along "Belt and Road". The two kinds of risks and the overall risk level are analyzed quantitatively, and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward. A comparison of the risks in 64 countries along the route will provide a reference for China's foreign direct investment (OFDI).
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F125

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