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莫迪政府對(duì)華“問題外交”策略研究——兼論該視角下印度對(duì)“一帶一路”倡議的態(tài)度

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-05-28 19:33

  本文選題:莫迪政府 + 印度對(duì)華政策; 參考:《當(dāng)代亞太》2017年06期


【摘要】:文章回溯了近年來印度莫迪政府對(duì)華外交策略的表現(xiàn)和成效,將莫迪政府的對(duì)華外交總結(jié)概述為"問題外交",其要旨在于印度把中印關(guān)系解構(gòu)為若干具體問題,就這些問題向中國(guó)提出訴求,將中國(guó)對(duì)這些問題的回復(fù)是否符合印度的意愿作為衡量中國(guó)對(duì)印度尊重程度以及對(duì)中印關(guān)系重視程度的標(biāo)準(zhǔn),并以此為依據(jù)確定下一輪對(duì)華外交行動(dòng)。文章總結(jié)了莫迪政府對(duì)華"問題外交"的基本特點(diǎn),即不關(guān)心整體狀態(tài)、不擔(dān)心中方報(bào)復(fù)、不考慮對(duì)等性質(zhì)、不長(zhǎng)期糾纏具體分歧的"四不"特征。進(jìn)而,文章討論了印度對(duì)華心態(tài)和其"問題外交"策略之間的關(guān)聯(lián),認(rèn)為莫迪政府對(duì)華的"問題外交"策略源自于,印度認(rèn)為目前中印關(guān)系的實(shí)力對(duì)比難以在所有領(lǐng)域取得外交突破,但在中印雙邊戰(zhàn)略中,中國(guó)投入資源的決心和意志明顯弱于印度;與此同時(shí),印度預(yù)判國(guó)際環(huán)境對(duì)自己采取對(duì)華機(jī)會(huì)主義策略的形勢(shì)有利,并對(duì)未來兩國(guó)實(shí)力橫向比較持對(duì)己方更為樂觀的預(yù)期。上述因素促使印度對(duì)華采取與其實(shí)力不相稱的攻勢(shì)策略。文章最后重點(diǎn)分析了莫迪政府對(duì)華"問題外交"思維對(duì)印度參與"一帶一路"的態(tài)度的影響,認(rèn)為在印度對(duì)"一帶一路"倡議的性質(zhì)和中方意圖心存疑慮的情況下,中國(guó)能否消除印度的疑慮實(shí)際上并不取決于中國(guó)對(duì)印度的政策取向以及成效,而是"一帶一路"在南亞其他國(guó)家所取得的具體成果。
[Abstract]:The article looks back on the performance and effect of India's Modi government's diplomatic strategy towards China in recent years, and summarizes Modi's diplomacy with China as "problem diplomacy", the main purpose of which is that India deconstructs Sino-Indian relations as a number of specific problems. To appeal to China on these issues and to judge whether China's response to these questions is in line with India's wishes as a measure of China's respect for India and the importance it attaches to Sino-Indian relations. And on this basis to determine the next round of diplomatic action against China. This paper summarizes the basic characteristics of Modi's government's "problem diplomacy" towards China, that is, it does not care about the overall state, does not worry about Chinese retaliation, does not consider the nature of reciprocity, and does not dwell on the "four noes" of specific differences for a long time. Furthermore, the paper discusses the relationship between India's attitude towards China and its "problem diplomacy" strategy, and points out that the Modi government's "problem diplomacy" strategy to China originates from, India believes that it is difficult to achieve diplomatic breakthroughs in all fields in the current strength balance of Sino-Indian relations. However, in the bilateral strategy of China and India, China's determination and will to invest resources is obviously weaker than that of India; at the same time, India prejudges that the international environment is favourable to its opportunistic strategy with China and is more optimistic about the future horizontal comparison of the two countries' power. These factors have prompted India to adopt an offensive strategy against China that is not commensurate with its strength. At the end of the article, the author analyzes the influence of Modi government's "problem diplomacy" thinking on India's attitude towards "Belt and Road", and holds that India has doubts about the nature of the "Belt and Road" initiative and the intention of the Chinese side. Whether China can allay India's doubts does not depend on China's policy orientation and effectiveness towards India, but on the concrete results achieved by the "Belt and Road" in other countries in South Asia.
【作者單位】: 中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院亞太與全球戰(zhàn)略研究院;
【分類號(hào)】:D822.3;D835.1

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