本文選題：人民幣跨境流動 + 貨幣政策效應(yīng)　； 參考：《吉林財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：人民幣跨境流動最早始于邊境貿(mào)易,基于人民幣升值預(yù)期,為了貿(mào)易往來的便利,規(guī)避匯率帶來成本變動的風(fēng)險,我國邊境地區(qū)的貿(mào)易雙方逐漸以人民幣代替美元作為結(jié)算貨幣,直到2009年人民幣結(jié)算試點成立,人民幣跨境流動才擁有了正式的官方結(jié)算渠道。2009年之后,人民幣結(jié)算試點范圍不斷擴(kuò)大,隨著“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略的實施、自貿(mào)區(qū)和亞投行的建立,人民幣跨境流動進(jìn)入了一個迅速發(fā)展地階段,特別是2015年人民幣加入特別提款權(quán)后,其在國際上的影響力進(jìn)一步提升。人民幣從結(jié)算貨幣到投資貨幣再到儲備貨幣,其職能不斷豐富,人民幣流出和回流的渠道也在不斷發(fā)展,人民幣跨境流動的規(guī)模不斷取得新的突破,流出的貨幣一部分回流到國內(nèi),一部分在海外積累,形成了人民幣離岸市場。不斷壯大的流動規(guī)模和不斷擴(kuò)展的流動渠道對國內(nèi)貨幣和資本市場造成了沖擊,影響了貨幣政策的有效性和獨(dú)立性。人民幣跨境流動的流出渠道主要包括貿(mào)易結(jié)算,對外投資和貨幣互換等,回流渠道主要包括離岸市場的存款和人民幣債券,境外機(jī)構(gòu)投資境內(nèi)銀行間債券市場,FDI,RQFII,人民幣貸款等。由于我國資本賬戶未完全開放,貨幣回流機(jī)制不健全,人民幣的國際認(rèn)可度還不足夠高等因素的制約,導(dǎo)致了人民幣流出量和回流量之間存在資金缺口,對國內(nèi)貨幣供應(yīng)量產(chǎn)生了影響,進(jìn)而影響利率和匯率,增加了貨幣政策調(diào)控難度,影響貨幣政策效應(yīng)。本文在傳統(tǒng)國際資本流動理論的基礎(chǔ)上,參考已有對跨境貿(mào)易結(jié)算,跨境投資和離岸市場對貨幣政策影響的研究結(jié)論,結(jié)合跨境人民幣跨境流動發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀和特點,從人民幣跨境流動的渠道對政策機(jī)制和貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)的影響的角度,選取2010年4月至2016年10月的月度數(shù)據(jù)為樣本,運(yùn)用VAR模型檢驗貨幣政策效應(yīng)對人民幣跨境流動沖擊的效果,得出如下實證結(jié)論。跨境人民幣資金流動對貨幣供應(yīng)量具有直接影響,增加貨幣政策的調(diào)控難度�？缇橙嗣駧刨Y金流動通過貨幣供應(yīng)量,對在岸市場的利率具有間接的影響。離岸市場人民幣利率波動是影響人民幣跨境資金流動的重要因素。人民幣跨境流動隨著在岸市場的匯率波動而波動,離岸市場和在岸市場匯率之間存在聯(lián)動關(guān)系。結(jié)合理論分析,人民幣跨境流動正朝著更加寬廣,更加順暢的趨勢不斷發(fā)展,而隨著人民幣跨境流動不斷開放,貨幣政策受到的沖擊將是顯而易見的。因此,建議設(shè)立有序有效的人民幣跨境流動機(jī)制,并完善跨境流動監(jiān)管機(jī)制,提高貨幣政策調(diào)控變量的敏感度,加強(qiáng)貨幣政策的有效性。
[Abstract]:The cross-border flow of RMB started with border trade at first. Based on the expectation of RMB appreciation, and in order to facilitate trade exchanges, it avoided the risk of cost changes brought about by the exchange rate. Trade parties in China's border areas have gradually replaced the US dollar with RMB as the settlement currency. Only when the RMB settlement pilot was established in 2009, did the cross-border RMB flow have a formal official settlement channel. After 2009, With the implementation of the "Belt and Road" strategy and the establishment of the Free Trade Zone and the AIIB, the cross-border flow of RMB has entered a stage of rapid development, especially after the RMB joined the SDR in 2015. Its influence in the international community has increased further. The functions of RMB from settlement currency to investment currency to reserve currency are constantly rich, the channels of RMB outflow and return are also developing, and the scale of RMB cross-border flow is constantly making new breakthroughs. Some of the outflow of money returned to the domestic and partly accumulated overseas, forming an offshore market for the renminbi. The growing flow scale and expanding flow channels impact the domestic money and capital markets and affect the effectiveness and independence of monetary policy. The outflow channels of cross-border RMB flow mainly include trade settlement, foreign investment and currency swap, etc. The return channels mainly include deposits and renminbi bonds in the offshore market, foreign institutions investing in domestic inter-bank bond market, FDI / RQFII, RMB loans, and so on. Because the capital account of our country is not completely open, the mechanism of currency reflux is not perfect, and the international recognition of RMB is not high enough, there is a fund gap between the amount of RMB outflow and the amount of reflux. It has an impact on the domestic money supply, which in turn affects the interest rate and exchange rate, increases the difficulty of monetary policy regulation and affects the monetary policy effect. On the basis of the traditional international capital flow theory, and referring to the existing research conclusions on the influence of cross-border trade settlement, cross-border investment and offshore market on monetary policy, this paper combines the current situation and characteristics of cross-border RMB cross-border flows. From the perspective of the influence of the channel of RMB cross-border flow on the policy mechanism and monetary policy intermediation target, the monthly data from April 2010 to October 2016 are selected as samples. This paper uses VAR model to test the effect of monetary policy effect on RMB cross-border flow, and draws the following empirical conclusions. Cross-border RMB capital flow has a direct impact on the money supply, increasing the difficulty of monetary policy control. The cross-border RMB capital flows through the money supply have indirect influence on the interest rate in the onshore market. RMB interest rate fluctuation in offshore market is an important factor affecting RMB cross-border capital flow. The cross-border flow of RMB fluctuates with the exchange rate fluctuation in the onshore market, and there is a linkage between the offshore market and the onshore exchange rate. Combined with theoretical analysis, RMB cross-border flows are moving towards a broader and smoother trend, and with the opening of RMB cross-border flows, the impact on monetary policy will be obvious. Therefore, it is suggested that an orderly and effective mechanism of RMB cross-border flow should be set up, and the supervision mechanism of cross-border flow should be improved to enhance the sensitivity of monetary policy regulation variables and strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 姚文寬;李維;;人民幣跨境結(jié)算對我國貨幣政策影響實證分析[J];商業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2016年17期

2 劉華;朱佳青;李廣眾;;香港離岸人民幣市場的發(fā)展對我國貨幣政策中間目標(biāo)的動態(tài)影響——基于廣義脈沖響應(yīng)的分析[J];國際金融研究;2016年04期

3 趙廷辰;張舒;;經(jīng)常項目、資本項目和跨境輸出人民幣[J];現(xiàn)代管理科學(xué);2016年04期

4 景政彬;;人民幣跨境貿(mào)易結(jié)算風(fēng)險及國際化路徑選擇[J];統(tǒng)計與決策;2016年06期

5 余翔;;人民幣國際化與匯率的相互影響及政策協(xié)調(diào)[J];金融論壇;2016年01期

6 楊帆;;人民幣國際化進(jìn)程中在岸與離岸市場匯率聯(lián)動研究[J];統(tǒng)計與決策;2015年19期

7 吳鳴;;對跨境人民幣業(yè)務(wù)市場化監(jiān)管的思考[J];上海金融;2015年07期

8 劉克;王曦;;人民幣國際化對我國貨幣政策實施的影響及對策[J];現(xiàn)代管理科學(xué);2015年06期

9 吳大慶;;本外幣跨境監(jiān)管聯(lián)動探索[J];中國金融;2015年11期

10 朱孟楠;張雪鹿;;境內(nèi)外人民幣匯率差異的原因研究[J];國際金融研究;2015年05期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前5條

1 韓璞景;人民幣離岸市場對我國貨幣供給影響研究[D];新疆財經(jīng)大學(xué);2016年

2 任姍;人民幣跨境流通對我國貨幣政策獨(dú)立性影響研究[D];南京師范大學(xué);2014年

3 王俊飛;香港人民幣離岸市場發(fā)展對境內(nèi)貨幣政策的影響[D];上海社會科學(xué)院;2014年

4 潘晶艷;人民幣國際化進(jìn)程中資本流動對貨幣政策效應(yīng)的影響研究[D];湖南大學(xué);2012年

5 李海建;國際短期資本流動及其對我國貨幣政策的影響研究[D];暨南大學(xué);2010年

，

本文編號：1946523