【摘要】：因果推理是一種高級認(rèn)知加工過程，個體需要在充分理解因果結(jié)構(gòu)、因果強(qiáng)度和相關(guān)背景知識的基礎(chǔ)上做出最優(yōu)選擇�？商娲颍╝lternative cause）指的是在多因一果的簡單因果關(guān)系中影響結(jié)果發(fā)生的唯一核心原因（focal cause）以外的其他因素。可替代原因在因果推理中扮演著重要的角色，是因果推理中需要認(rèn)真推敲的內(nèi)容。已有研究表明，因果信息的呈現(xiàn)方式，因果聯(lián)結(jié)強(qiáng)度，因果結(jié)構(gòu)等都會對因果推理產(chǎn)生影響，那么是否可替代原因的強(qiáng)度，結(jié)構(gòu)類型和狀態(tài)也會對因果推理產(chǎn)生影響呢？ 本研究基于可替代原因的視角，借鑒FernbachRehder（2013）的研究，通過調(diào)節(jié)可替代原因的強(qiáng)度，可替代原因的表征結(jié)構(gòu)，可替代原因的狀態(tài)，依次探討了不同的可替代原因條件對因果推理的影響。具體分為三個實(shí)驗(yàn)研究： 實(shí)驗(yàn)1以大學(xué)生為被試，采用2（核心原因強(qiáng)度：40%，80%）×3（可替代原因強(qiáng)度：25%，50%，75%）的被試間設(shè)計(jì)探討在核心原因強(qiáng)度存在差異的條件下可替代原因強(qiáng)度對因果推理的影響。為了避免回憶誤差的影響，實(shí)驗(yàn)以紙筆的形式呈現(xiàn)給被試相應(yīng)的因果信息及相關(guān)的因果結(jié)構(gòu)，，讓被試對P(E/C)，P(C/E)，P(E/-C)，P(C/-E)做出概率判斷。結(jié)果顯示，被試對核心原因強(qiáng)度敏感；反向預(yù)測推理（由結(jié)果沒有出現(xiàn)推測原因）對可替代原因的強(qiáng)度敏感；在診斷推理中存在核心原因強(qiáng)度和可替代原因強(qiáng)度的交互效應(yīng)。上述結(jié)果說明被試可以利用可替代原因的信息對不同類型的因果推理做出判斷，在強(qiáng)核心原因條件的診斷推理中弱核心原因的存在反而使得推理結(jié)果降低（發(fā)現(xiàn)弱證據(jù)效應(yīng)）。 在實(shí)驗(yàn)1的基礎(chǔ)上，實(shí)驗(yàn)2采用2（可替代原因表征：明確，不明確）×3（可替代原因強(qiáng)度：25%，50%，75%）的被試間設(shè)計(jì)進(jìn)一步探討了可替代原因的表征和強(qiáng)度對因果推理的影響。實(shí)驗(yàn)以紙筆的形式呈現(xiàn)給被試相應(yīng)的因果信息及相關(guān)的因果結(jié)構(gòu)，讓被試對P(E/C)，P(C/E)，P(E/-C)，P(C/-E)做出概率判斷。結(jié)果顯示，可替代原因的表征并不會對因果推理產(chǎn)生影響；反向預(yù)測推理中出現(xiàn)對可替代原因強(qiáng)度的敏感；但是在預(yù)測推理和反向診斷推理中我們發(fā)現(xiàn)可替代原因表征和強(qiáng)度的交互效應(yīng)。上述結(jié)果說明推理者不能對可替代原因結(jié)構(gòu)的狀態(tài)進(jìn)行整合，可替代原因的強(qiáng)度沒有對推理產(chǎn)生影響可能是因?yàn)楸辉囌J(rèn)為不明確條件中的可替代原因是不存在的，不明確表征可能會使得強(qiáng)可替代原因條件下的推理出現(xiàn)較大偏差。 在實(shí)驗(yàn)1和實(shí)驗(yàn)2的研究基礎(chǔ)之上，實(shí)驗(yàn)3以大學(xué)生為被試，深入探討了在結(jié)構(gòu)明確的條件下，可替代原因出現(xiàn)，不出現(xiàn)兩種推理?xiàng)l件中可替代原因強(qiáng)度（25%，50%，75%）對因果推理產(chǎn)生的影響。根據(jù)我們提供的因果關(guān)系和結(jié)構(gòu)信息讓被試對P(E/CA)，P(C/EA)，P(E/C-A)，P(C/E-A)，P(E/A)，P(A/E)做出概率判斷。結(jié)果顯示，在預(yù)測推理中，被試對可替代原因的強(qiáng)度敏感；在可替代原因沒有出現(xiàn)的條件下，預(yù)測推理中也出現(xiàn)了對可替代原因的敏感。結(jié)果表明人類在因果推理中，并不是沒有考慮可替代原因的影響，對替代原因的忽視是由于在最后的概率判斷中出現(xiàn)的表征錯誤和計(jì)算步驟的缺失。 本研究從不同的可替代原因條件出發(fā)，全面考察了可替代原因?qū)τ谝蚬评淼挠绊�。通過這三個實(shí)驗(yàn)，本研究得出三個重要結(jié)論：首先，對可替代原因的忽視并不僅僅是因?yàn)閷σ延兄R的檢索困難。第二，對可替代原因的忽視并不是由于推理中的懶惰，也就是說只有當(dāng)可能的判斷誤差很小時人們才會放松推理的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。第三，明確可替代原因的表征并不一定能夠提高推理準(zhǔn)確度。研究結(jié)果顯示當(dāng)相關(guān)知識以簡單、具體的形式呈現(xiàn)時，人們更容易進(jìn)行因果推理。
[Abstract]:Cause and effect reasoning is a kind of advanced cognitive process, and the individual needs to make the best choice on the basis of full understanding of the cause and effect structure, the cause and effect strength and the related background knowledge. Alternative cause refers to other factors other than the single core cause that affects the occurrence of a simple causal relationship for a single fruit. The alternative causes play an important role in the cause and effect reasoning, which is the content that needs to be carefully knocked out in the cause and effect reasoning. The existing research shows that the form of the causal information, the causal link strength, the causal structure and so on will have an effect on the cause and effect reasoning, and whether the strength, structure type and state of the cause can affect the causal inference. Based on the perspective of the alternative causes, this study is based on the study of FernbachRehder (2013), and by adjusting the strength of the alternative reason, the characteristic structure of the alternative reason, the status of the alternative reason, the effect of different alternative causes on the cause and effect reasoning is discussed in this order. In particular, it is divided into three experimental studies Study: Experiment 1 was tested with 2 (core reason:40%,80%) and 3 (an alternative reason:25%, The experimental design of 50%,75%) discusses the cause-and-effect reasoning under the condition of the difference in the core reason intensity In order to avoid the influence of the memory error, the paper presents the cause and effect information and the related causal structure in the form of a paper pen, and makes the test to the P (E/ C), P (C/ E), P (E/-C), P (C/-E). Rate judgment. The results show that the participants are sensitive to the core cause intensity, and the reverse predictive reasoning (the result does not show the reason for speculation) is sensitive to the intensity of the alternative causes; the core reason intensity and the alternative cause strength are present in the diagnosis and reasoning. The results show that the participants can use the information of the alternative reason to judge the cause and effect of different types, and the existence of the weak core reason in the diagnosis and reasoning of the strong core reason can cause the inference result to be reduced (the weak evidence is found). Effect). On the basis of experiment 1, the experiment 2 uses 2 (alternative cause characterization: clear and ambiguous).3 (alternative cause strength:25%,50%,75%) is further explored for the characterization and strength of the alternative causes for cause and effect The result of the experiment is presented to the cause and effect information and the related causal structure in the form of a paper pen. The result of the experiment is P (E/ C), P (C/ E), P (E/-C), P (C/-E). The results show that the representation of the alternative causes does not have an impact on the cause and effect reasoning; the inverse predictive reasoning is sensitive to the strength of the alternative causes; however, in the prediction of the reasoning and the reverse diagnostic reasoning we find alternative causes for characterization and strength The results show that the reasoner can't complete the state of the alternative reason structure, but the strength of the alternative reason is not affected by the reasoning, which may be due to the fact that the participants are not aware of the alternative causes in the condition Is not present, it is not clear that the characterization may result in a reasoning under the condition of a strong alternative. On the basis of the research of experiment 1 and experiment 2, the experiment 3 is based on the research of the experiment 1 and the experiment 2, and the experiment 3, under the condition that the structure is clear, can be substituted for the reason, and the cause and effect of the alternative reason (25%,50%,75%) in the two reasoning conditions are not present The effect of reasoning. Based on the causality and structure information we provide, it is made to P (E/ CA), P (C/ EA), P (E/ C-A), P (C/ E-A), P (E/ A), P (A/ E), P (C/ E-A), P (E/ A), P (A/ E), The results show that in the predictive reasoning, the participants are sensitive to the strength of the alternative causes; in the absence of the alternative causes, the predictive reasoning also appears to be The result shows that human being in the cause and effect reasoning does not consider the effect of alternative causes, and the neglect of the alternative causes is due to the characterization errors occurring in the final probability judgment. The result of this study is to investigate the alternative causes from different alternative causes. Through these three experiments, three important conclusions are drawn: first, the neglect of the alternative causes is not only due to the fact that Second, the neglect of alternative causes is not because of the laziness in the reasoning, that is, only when the possible judgment error is very small The criteria for reasoning are relaxed. Third, the characterization of an alternative cause does not necessarily The results show that when the relevant knowledge is presented in a simple, concrete form, people
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：B842

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