發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-29 18:59

  本文選題：心理學(xué)可重復(fù)性危機(jī) + 傳統(tǒng)統(tǒng)計(jì)檢驗(yàn)的局限�。� 參考：《心理與行為研究》2017年05期

【摘要】：心理學(xué)的可重復(fù)性危機(jī)有兩大已知的根源:傳統(tǒng)統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)中虛無假設(shè)顯著性檢驗(yàn)體系的局限,和心理學(xué)的學(xué)術(shù)傳統(tǒng)中的弊端,本文以開放科學(xué)協(xié)作組2015年報(bào)告的數(shù)據(jù)為依據(jù),試對這兩個(gè)根源的影響作一粗略的估算。采用Goodman(1992)和Cumming(2008)提出的方法對傳統(tǒng)統(tǒng)計(jì)體系所加諸于可重復(fù)性的限制加以分析后,估算的結(jié)果表明傳統(tǒng)統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)體系的制約,雖然有舉足輕重的影響,卻遠(yuǎn)不能完全解釋該報(bào)告中低至36%的可重復(fù)率,該報(bào)告所反映的狀況,顯然還另有重大的非統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)的根源。本文進(jìn)一步用Ioannidis(2005)提出的模型對這類非統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)因素的影響加以分析。分析后得到的若干組人為偏差率和Ha真實(shí)概率的估算,表明在原來研究所獲得的幾乎清一色的陽性結(jié)果中,大約只有不到三分之一或更低的比例是真陽性,而且相當(dāng)部分的陽性結(jié)果,可能由人為偏差所造成。這樣的分析可比較具體地描述該類因素對當(dāng)前可重復(fù)性危機(jī)的可能影響。
[Abstract]:There are two known causes for the repetitive crisis in psychology: the limitations of the test system of nothingness hypothesis in traditional statistics, and the drawbacks of the academic tradition of psychology. This paper is based on the data reported by the Open Scientific Cooperation Group in 2015. Try to make a rough estimate of the effects of these two sources. Using the methods proposed by Goodman (1992) and Cummingli (2008) to analyze the reproducible limitations imposed by traditional statistical systems, the estimated results show that the constraints of traditional statistical systems are important, although they have a significant impact on them. But far from fully explaining the report's low repetition rate of as low as 36 percent, the report clearly reflects another significant non-statistical source. In this paper, the influence of these non-statistical factors is analyzed by using the model proposed by Ioannidishe 2005. The estimates of several groups of artificial deviations and Ha's true probability obtained from the analysis indicate that, of the almost universal positive results obtained from the original study, only about 1/3 or less are true positive. And a considerable number of positive results, may be caused by human bias. Such an analysis can describe more specifically the possible impact of such factors on current repeatable crises.
【作者單位】： 美國賓夕法尼亞印第安納大學(xué);
【分類號】：B841

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