本文選題：頻數(shù)概率 + 先驗(yàn)概率　； 參考：《心理科學(xué)》2017年06期

【摘要】：本文從科學(xué)范式演變和概率統(tǒng)計(jì)推斷特征分析出發(fā),就貝葉斯統(tǒng)計(jì)推斷引入心理學(xué)的必要性、怎么應(yīng)用、在哪些領(lǐng)域應(yīng)用進(jìn)行了論述。首先在分析科學(xué)范式演進(jìn)各階段統(tǒng)計(jì)推斷任務(wù)需要、經(jīng)典的頻率概率統(tǒng)計(jì)推斷不足基礎(chǔ)上,得出科學(xué)范式處于危機(jī)和革命階段時(shí)需要對相關(guān)理論做可信度檢驗(yàn)。然后,在介紹貝葉斯定理及其統(tǒng)計(jì)推斷的基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)一步分析了貝葉斯推斷能解決理論可信度的多種假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)情景。最后本文還就貝葉斯統(tǒng)計(jì)推斷在心理學(xué)理論爭鳴與建構(gòu)、心理技術(shù)產(chǎn)品開發(fā)與評估具體領(lǐng)域應(yīng)用做了分析。
[Abstract]:Based on the evolution of the scientific paradigm and the analysis of the characteristics of probability and statistics inference, this paper discusses the necessity of introducing Bayesian statistical inference into psychology, how to apply it, and the fields in which it is applied. Firstly, based on the analysis of the need of statistical inference in each stage of the evolution of scientific paradigm and the insufficiency of classical frequency probability statistical inference, it is concluded that when the scientific paradigm is in crisis and revolution stage, it is necessary to test the credibility of relevant theories. Then, based on the introduction of Bayesian theorem and its statistical inference, several hypothetical test scenarios in which Bayesian inference can solve the reliability of theory are further analyzed. Finally, this paper analyzes the application of Bayesian statistical inference in the field of psychological theory contention and construction, psychological technology product development and evaluation.
【作者單位】： 內(nèi)蒙古師范大學(xué)內(nèi)蒙古高校人文社科重點(diǎn)研究基地心理教育研究中心;蘇塞克斯大學(xué)心理學(xué)院;內(nèi)蒙古師范大學(xué)內(nèi)蒙古自治區(qū)心理學(xué)重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;
【基金】：國家留學(xué)基金委西部人才特別培養(yǎng)項(xiàng)目(201208155069) 內(nèi)蒙古高校人文社科重點(diǎn)研究基地心理教育研究中心課題(NMGJDXLZDI005)的資助
【分類號】：B84-0

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