本文選題：后見(jiàn)之明偏差　切入點(diǎn)：認(rèn)知資源　出處：《寧波大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：后見(jiàn)之明偏差是指人們?cè)谑潞罂创Y(jié)果時(shí),會(huì)因記憶扭曲或?qū)κ虑榘l(fā)生必然性的感知而過(guò)高估計(jì)自身預(yù)測(cè)能力的現(xiàn)象。鑒于后見(jiàn)之明偏差容易造成決策者在決策過(guò)程中產(chǎn)生過(guò)度自信和缺乏深謀遠(yuǎn)慮所帶來(lái)的危害性,近年來(lái)研究者們逐漸從對(duì)其形成機(jī)制的研究轉(zhuǎn)向?qū)ζ溆绊懸蛩氐难芯?希望能夠找到減小后見(jiàn)之明偏差的方法。已有研究發(fā)現(xiàn)研究方法、年齡因素、個(gè)人特質(zhì)、能力變量、反饋效價(jià)、自我關(guān)聯(lián)性、情緒、專(zhuān)業(yè)知識(shí)等均會(huì)對(duì)后見(jiàn)之明偏差大小產(chǎn)生影響,但研究結(jié)論并不統(tǒng)一。其次,除反饋效價(jià)和自我關(guān)聯(lián)性基于后見(jiàn)之明偏差的動(dòng)機(jī)模型外,大多數(shù)影響因素并非從理論模型推導(dǎo)得出。鑒于此,本文基于記憶設(shè)計(jì)從后見(jiàn)之明偏差的認(rèn)知模型出發(fā),推理出認(rèn)知資源可能會(huì)對(duì)先后見(jiàn)之明偏差的大小產(chǎn)生影響。因此,希望通過(guò)三個(gè)研究來(lái)探究認(rèn)知資源限制對(duì)后見(jiàn)之明偏差大小的影響。研究一為探索性研究,旨在探究后見(jiàn)判斷反應(yīng)時(shí)與后見(jiàn)之明偏差大小是否存在相關(guān)性,即是否是后見(jiàn)之明偏差大小的一個(gè)潛在影響因素,并為研究二提供參考。研究二基于研究一的結(jié)果,通過(guò)操控后見(jiàn)判斷反應(yīng)時(shí)來(lái)間接調(diào)控被試的認(rèn)知資源分配,探究認(rèn)知資源限制對(duì)后見(jiàn)之明偏差大小的影響。研究三則通過(guò)給予認(rèn)知負(fù)荷直接占用被試的認(rèn)知資源來(lái)探究認(rèn)知資源限制對(duì)后見(jiàn)之明偏差的影響大小。本研究獲得主要結(jié)論可以概括為:認(rèn)知資源限制增大后見(jiàn)之明偏差大小。具體體現(xiàn)在以下幾點(diǎn):(1)后見(jiàn)判斷中用于回憶先見(jiàn)判斷所花費(fèi)的時(shí)間與后見(jiàn)之明偏差大小呈顯著負(fù)相關(guān)。(2)通過(guò)操控后見(jiàn)判斷反應(yīng)時(shí)間接調(diào)控被試的認(rèn)知資源發(fā)現(xiàn),較之自由回憶,快速回憶增大后見(jiàn)之明偏差。(3)通過(guò)設(shè)置有/無(wú)認(rèn)知負(fù)荷直接占用被試的認(rèn)知資源發(fā)現(xiàn),較之無(wú)認(rèn)知負(fù)荷,認(rèn)知負(fù)荷增大后見(jiàn)之明偏差。
[Abstract]:Backward bias is when people look at the results afterwards, A phenomenon in which one overestimates one's ability to predict due to distorted memory or perception of the inevitability of events. Given the danger of overconfidence and a lack of foresight on the part of decision makers in the decision-making process, In recent years, researchers have gradually shifted from the study of its formation mechanism to the study of its influencing factors, hoping to find a way to reduce the apparent deviation. Feedback titer, self-relevance, emotion and professional knowledge all have an effect on the size of the discernible bias, but the conclusions are not uniform. Secondly, except for the motivation model of feedback titer and self-relevance based on the second-sight bias, Most of the influencing factors are not derived from the theoretical model. In view of this, this paper infer that cognitive resources may have an effect on the magnitude of cognitive deviation based on the cognitive model of memory design. It is hoped to explore the effect of cognitive resource restriction on the size of aftersight bias through three studies. The first is an exploratory study, which aims to explore whether there is a correlation between the reaction time and the apparent bias. That is, whether it is a potential factor to influence the magnitude of the apparent deviation, and provide a reference for the second study. The second study, based on the results of study one, indirectly regulates the allocation of cognitive resources of the subjects by manipulating the reaction time. The third study explored the effect of cognitive resource restriction on the cognitive deviation by directly occupying the cognitive resources of the subjects. The main conclusion can be summarized as follows: the apparent deviation of cognitive resources is increased, which is reflected in the following points: 1) the time taken to recall the prior judgment is significantly negative to that of the latter. Correlation. 2) the cognitive resources of the subjects regulated by the reaction time after manipulation were found. Compared with the free recall, the obvious bias of rapid recall increased. 3) by setting up cognitive resources with or without cognitive load, we found that compared with no cognitive load, cognitive load increased and cognitive load increased.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：寧波大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：B842.1

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