【摘要】：國(guó)際關(guān)系研究中的反事實(shí)推理作為一種思維實(shí)驗(yàn),補(bǔ)充了傳統(tǒng)的因果推理,可以適應(yīng)復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)對(duì)偶然性的關(guān)注。反事實(shí)推理以情景分析為工具,以合理性、相近性、理論性和真實(shí)性的標(biāo)準(zhǔn),可以"重構(gòu)"歷史的多種可能性,進(jìn)而探尋歷史事件的深層原因,也可以分析未來(lái)事件的多種可能性,進(jìn)而對(duì)國(guó)際關(guān)系決策起到借鑒和指導(dǎo)作用。但因?yàn)榉词聦?shí)推理本身的局限性,使用時(shí)應(yīng)該謹(jǐn)慎細(xì)致,以免偏離科學(xué)研究的軌道。
[Abstract]:Counterfactual reasoning in the study of international relations, as a thinking experiment, complements the traditional causal reasoning and can be adapted to the attention of complex systems to contingency. Anti-fact reasoning takes situational analysis as a tool, and with the criteria of rationality, similarity, theory and authenticity, it can "reconstruct" various possibilities of history, and then explore the deep causes of historical events. It can also analyze various possibilities of future events, and then serve as a reference and guide for international relations decision-making. However, because of the limitation of counterfactual reasoning, it should be used carefully and carefully so as not to deviate from the track of scientific research.
【作者單位】： 中共中央黨校國(guó)際戰(zhàn)略研究所;復(fù)旦大學(xué);
【分類號(hào)】：D81

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

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1 唐世平;張e，

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