威懾有效性研究：不同類(lèi)型比較
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-20 18:52
【摘要】：本文的主要脈絡(luò)是從理論分析到案例檢測(cè)。從理論分析中總結(jié)一些具體的規(guī)律,再使用案例加以檢測(cè)。研究的理論問(wèn)題是國(guó)際關(guān)系中威懾的有效性,具體研究對(duì)象是影響不同類(lèi)型威懾實(shí)現(xiàn)的因素。威懾戰(zhàn)略是冷戰(zhàn)開(kāi)始后大國(guó)國(guó)家安全戰(zhàn)略的核心,對(duì)當(dāng)時(shí)國(guó)際格局的維持與變動(dòng)發(fā)揮決定性作用；冷戰(zhàn)結(jié)束后,威懾戰(zhàn)略的核心地位有所動(dòng)搖,但依然是大國(guó)戰(zhàn)略的基石之一。鑒于威懾戰(zhàn)略的重要性,威懾戰(zhàn)略背后的理論建構(gòu)成為國(guó)際關(guān)系研究中的顯學(xué)。威懾理論是對(duì)威懾概念進(jìn)行界定和運(yùn)行規(guī)律進(jìn)行總結(jié)的理論。在威懾理論研究中,對(duì)如何實(shí)現(xiàn)有效威懾的研究是重點(diǎn)之一。本文的主旨是,通過(guò)對(duì)已有理論研究成果的學(xué)習(xí),在深入剖析、掌握威懾概念的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)先賢們?cè)谕赜行苑矫娴难芯砍晒右允崂�；通過(guò)梳理已有的研究路徑,了解影響威懾有效性的諸多因素,并探討這些因素在國(guó)際關(guān)系現(xiàn)狀中新的應(yīng)用,希望能在威懾理論這一宏偉的建筑上添磚加瓦。國(guó)際關(guān)系中的威懾,是指威懾方以強(qiáng)制力為后盾威脅被威懾方,使之感到得不償失而被迫中止先前的意圖。對(duì)威懾有效性研究的主要路徑包括強(qiáng)理性主義路徑、認(rèn)知理性主義路徑和建構(gòu)-詮釋路徑,研究層次則包括超國(guó)家、國(guó)家以及亞國(guó)家層次。本文采用認(rèn)知理性路徑,通過(guò)理論分析——案例檢驗(yàn)方法,得出如下結(jié)論：威懾實(shí)力是威懾有效性的基礎(chǔ)�；诤宋淦髋c常規(guī)武器截然不同的物理效用,核威懾與常規(guī)威懾具有不同的威懾有效性。其有效性差異的根本原因在于兩類(lèi)威懾實(shí)力的計(jì)算標(biāo)準(zhǔn)不同、影響因素不同、影響因素作用的效果也不同。能夠影響核威懾實(shí)力可信度的主要因素是國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)水平、國(guó)家核戰(zhàn)略、新防御技術(shù)和核武器效用逆序效應(yīng),而影響常規(guī)威懾可信度的是現(xiàn)役軍事實(shí)力對(duì)比、特定戰(zhàn)術(shù)運(yùn)用和同盟變化。在目前的技術(shù)條件下,核威懾對(duì)上述影響因素的變化并不十分敏感。相比核威懾,常規(guī)威懾效力對(duì)相對(duì)軍事實(shí)力變化、戰(zhàn)術(shù)對(duì)比和同盟的變化更為敏感；這些因素的變化會(huì)直接影響到常規(guī)威懾的效力。在威懾的意志可信度方面,威懾意志的缺失和表達(dá)不充分是最常見(jiàn)的問(wèn)題。造成意志不足現(xiàn)象的基本原因相同,包括利益佯謬、自我威懾效應(yīng)和廉價(jià)信號(hào)。這些不利因素可以通過(guò)威懾互動(dòng)雙方的交流學(xué)習(xí)、部分依賴(lài)于偶然性策略和昂貴信號(hào)的釋放等加以克服。在威懾信息的傳達(dá)方面,信息的傳遞渠道和被威懾方對(duì)信息的知覺(jué)是關(guān)鍵。信息傳遞渠道的不可靠和被威懾方對(duì)信息的錯(cuò)誤知覺(jué)都會(huì)影響威懾信息的傳達(dá),造成威懾效力的變化。反擴(kuò)散是美國(guó)在冷戰(zhàn)結(jié)束后的國(guó)家安全戰(zhàn)略基石,反映出美國(guó)的絕對(duì)安全觀。反擴(kuò)散威懾是美國(guó)反擴(kuò)散戰(zhàn)略的具體手段之一。在敘利亞化武危機(jī)中,在美國(guó)做好充分的軍事準(zhǔn)備和輿論準(zhǔn)備、并表達(dá)出堅(jiān)定打擊決心的情況下,敘利亞政府被迫放棄保存／使用化學(xué)武器,并最終作出全部銷(xiāo)毀化學(xué)武器的決定。敘利亞放棄化學(xué)武器這一事實(shí),從客觀上達(dá)到了反擴(kuò)散威懾的效果。美國(guó)在敘利亞化學(xué)武器問(wèn)題上反擴(kuò)散威懾的成功,來(lái)源于對(duì)威懾有效性要素的把握�；谶@些研究成果,本文提出如下政策建議：核威懾在國(guó)家安全戰(zhàn)略中的核心地位無(wú)法動(dòng)搖；在戰(zhàn)略或政策制定中,以常規(guī)手段實(shí)現(xiàn)威懾目標(biāo)必須更為審慎,且必須考慮常規(guī)威懾失敗后的預(yù)備方案；加強(qiáng)國(guó)家間相互交流和學(xué)習(xí),對(duì)威懾意志的表達(dá)和信息的傳遞都有正面效用。
[Abstract]:The main thread of this paper is from theoretical analysis to case detection. Some specific laws are summarized from theoretical analysis and then tested by case studies. The theoretical issue of the study is the effectiveness of deterrence in international relations. The specific object of study is the factors influencing the realization of different types of deterrence. The core of the strategy is to play a decisive role in maintaining and changing the international situation at that time. After the cold war, the core position of the deterrence strategy has been shaken, but it is still one of the cornerstones of the strategy of the great powers. In the study of deterrence theory, how to achieve effective deterrence is one of the key points. The main purpose of this paper is to study the existing theoretical research results, in-depth analysis, grasp the concept of deterrence on the basis of the predecessors in the deterrence effectiveness research results. Combing; through combing the existing research paths, understand the factors affecting the effectiveness of deterrence, and explore the new application of these factors in the status quo of international relations, hoping to add to the magnificent building of deterrence theory. The main paths of deterrence effectiveness research include the strong rationalism path, the cognitive rationalism path and the Construction-Interpretation path, and the research level includes the supranational, the national and the sub-national level. The conclusion is that deterrence power is the basis of deterrence effectiveness. Based on the different physical effects of nuclear weapons and conventional weapons, nuclear deterrence and conventional deterrence have different deterrence effectiveness. The main factors influencing the credibility of nuclear deterrence are the national economic and technological level, the national nuclear strategy, the new defense technology and the reverse effect of nuclear weapon effectiveness. The factors influencing the credibility of conventional deterrence are the contrast of military strength in service, the use of specific tactics and the change of alliances. Compared with nuclear deterrence, conventional deterrence effectiveness is more sensitive to changes in relative military strength, tactical contrast and alliance changes; changes in these factors will directly affect the effectiveness of conventional deterrence. The basic reasons for the lack of ambition are the same, including interest paradox, self-deterrence effect and low-cost signals. These disadvantages can be overcome by deterring the interaction between the two sides, partly relying on contingency strategies and the release of expensive signals. Uncertainty in the channel of information transmission and the false perception of information by the deterred party will affect the transmission of deterrent information and cause changes in deterrent effectiveness.Anti-proliferation is the cornerstone of the national security strategy of the United States after the cold war, reflecting the absolute security concept of the United States.Anti-proliferation deterrence is the concrete part of the United States anti-proliferation strategy. One of the means. In the Syrian chemical weapons crisis, the Syrian government was forced to abandon the preservation/use of chemical weapons and eventually to make a decision to destroy all chemical weapons when the United States was fully prepared for military and public opinion and expressed its firm determination to strike. The fact that Syria abandoned chemical weapons objectively achieved this. Based on these research results, this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: nuclear deterrence in the core of national security strategy can not be shaken; in strategy or policy formulation, conventional means should be used. The realization of deterrence objectives must be more prudent and consideration must be given to the preparatory plan for failure of conventional deterrence. Enhanced exchanges and learning among countries have positive effects on the expression of deterrence will and the transmission of information.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：D815.2
本文編號(hào)：2194658
[Abstract]:The main thread of this paper is from theoretical analysis to case detection. Some specific laws are summarized from theoretical analysis and then tested by case studies. The theoretical issue of the study is the effectiveness of deterrence in international relations. The specific object of study is the factors influencing the realization of different types of deterrence. The core of the strategy is to play a decisive role in maintaining and changing the international situation at that time. After the cold war, the core position of the deterrence strategy has been shaken, but it is still one of the cornerstones of the strategy of the great powers. In the study of deterrence theory, how to achieve effective deterrence is one of the key points. The main purpose of this paper is to study the existing theoretical research results, in-depth analysis, grasp the concept of deterrence on the basis of the predecessors in the deterrence effectiveness research results. Combing; through combing the existing research paths, understand the factors affecting the effectiveness of deterrence, and explore the new application of these factors in the status quo of international relations, hoping to add to the magnificent building of deterrence theory. The main paths of deterrence effectiveness research include the strong rationalism path, the cognitive rationalism path and the Construction-Interpretation path, and the research level includes the supranational, the national and the sub-national level. The conclusion is that deterrence power is the basis of deterrence effectiveness. Based on the different physical effects of nuclear weapons and conventional weapons, nuclear deterrence and conventional deterrence have different deterrence effectiveness. The main factors influencing the credibility of nuclear deterrence are the national economic and technological level, the national nuclear strategy, the new defense technology and the reverse effect of nuclear weapon effectiveness. The factors influencing the credibility of conventional deterrence are the contrast of military strength in service, the use of specific tactics and the change of alliances. Compared with nuclear deterrence, conventional deterrence effectiveness is more sensitive to changes in relative military strength, tactical contrast and alliance changes; changes in these factors will directly affect the effectiveness of conventional deterrence. The basic reasons for the lack of ambition are the same, including interest paradox, self-deterrence effect and low-cost signals. These disadvantages can be overcome by deterring the interaction between the two sides, partly relying on contingency strategies and the release of expensive signals. Uncertainty in the channel of information transmission and the false perception of information by the deterred party will affect the transmission of deterrent information and cause changes in deterrent effectiveness.Anti-proliferation is the cornerstone of the national security strategy of the United States after the cold war, reflecting the absolute security concept of the United States.Anti-proliferation deterrence is the concrete part of the United States anti-proliferation strategy. One of the means. In the Syrian chemical weapons crisis, the Syrian government was forced to abandon the preservation/use of chemical weapons and eventually to make a decision to destroy all chemical weapons when the United States was fully prepared for military and public opinion and expressed its firm determination to strike. The fact that Syria abandoned chemical weapons objectively achieved this. Based on these research results, this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: nuclear deterrence in the core of national security strategy can not be shaken; in strategy or policy formulation, conventional means should be used. The realization of deterrence objectives must be more prudent and consideration must be given to the preparatory plan for failure of conventional deterrence. Enhanced exchanges and learning among countries have positive effects on the expression of deterrence will and the transmission of information.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：D815.2
【參考文獻(xiàn)】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條
1 王宏緯;1962年邊界戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)及其對(duì)中印關(guān)系的影響[J];南亞研究;2002年02期
，本文編號(hào)：2194658
本文鏈接：http://sikaile.net/shekelunwen/waijiao/2194658.html
最近更新
教材專(zhuān)著
