朝核問題中的博弈
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-19 11:50
【摘要】：朝核問題一直以來都不是一個孤立的地區(qū)問題或者單一的核問題。它不僅困擾著東北亞地區(qū)的安全,還影響著全球的戰(zhàn)略布局。朝鮮半島地區(qū)是冷戰(zhàn)時期意識形態(tài)對立的最后陣地,是美國敵視朝鮮政權(quán)、遏制中國崛起、防范俄羅斯的前沿地區(qū)。美國一直將意識形態(tài)與其對立的朝鮮視為“邪惡軸心國”、“無賴國家”,而朝鮮又渴望實現(xiàn)朝美、朝日關(guān)系正�；�。朝核問題就是在這樣的背景下產(chǎn)生的,它是朝鮮一廂情愿地實現(xiàn)朝美和解的手段。 然而從朝核問題產(chǎn)生之目起,就注定朝核問題不是朝美兩國的雙邊問題,它涉及到的問題和因素錯綜復(fù)雜。它不僅擾亂了東北亞地區(qū)的和平與穩(wěn)定,還犯了美國維持全球核平衡的大忌,朝鮮半島無核化才‘符合美國和東北亞各國的利益,而朝美之問山于根深蒂固的不信任,使得朝核問題不得不在六方會談的多邊機(jī)制下解決。參加六方會談的中、美、俄、日、韓、朝六國既有實現(xiàn)朝鮮半島無核化的共同利益,也有六方各自的特殊利益。朝鮮的目的在于實現(xiàn)美日邦交正常；韓國和日本為了維護(hù)國家的安全和穩(wěn)定；美國則為了維護(hù)東北亞的霸主地位及其建立的核不擴(kuò)散體系；中國出于地緣政治原因考慮,不得不維護(hù)朝鮮政權(quán)的獨(dú)立性；俄羅斯則為了實現(xiàn)其在東北亞的利益。正是這種共同利益促使了六方的合作,也因六方各自的特殊利益使得六方會談進(jìn)行舉步維艱。在這種看似復(fù)雜的利益關(guān)系中,有存在著利益的微妙均衡,即美日韓同盟對抗中俄朝三國。從第一輪六方會淡開始到第六輪六方會談結(jié)束,六方雖然在朝核問題上達(dá)成了一些共識,簽署主席聲明,但并沒有取得實質(zhì)性進(jìn)展。 直到今天,朝核問題依然沒有得到解決,符方重返六方會談依然遙遙無期。朝核問題的未來走向至少有三種可能性：第一種可能性是朝核問題被無限期地拖延下去,第二種可能性是美國通過采取“先發(fā)制人”的軍事戰(zhàn)略,第三種可能性是在六方會談機(jī)制下和平解決朝核問題。最后一種可能是人們的美好愿望,在利益驅(qū)動下很難說這種美好愿望是惟一的未來最想。
[Abstract]:The North Korean nuclear issue has not been an isolated regional issue or a single nuclear issue. It not only puzzles the security of Northeast Asia, but also affects the global strategic layout. The Korean Peninsula is the last position of ideological antagonism during the Cold War. It is the frontier region of the United States hostile to the Korean regime, containing the rise of China and guarding against Russia. The United States has always regarded North Korea as an "axis of evil" and a "rogue country", and North Korea is eager to normalize relations between North Korea and Japan. It is against this background that the North Korean nuclear issue is a wishful approach to reconciliation between North Korea and the United States. However, from the beginning of the North Korean nuclear issue, it is doomed that the North Korean nuclear issue is not a bilateral issue between the DPRK and the United States, and that it involves complicated issues and factors. It not only disturbs the peace and stability in Northeast Asia, but also violates the United States' great taboo of maintaining global nuclear balance. The denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is in the interests of the United States and the Northeast Asian countries, and the question of the DPRK and the United States is rooted in deep-rooted mistrust. So that the North Korean nuclear issue has to be resolved under the six-party talks under the multilateral mechanism. China, the United States, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and the six countries participating in the Six-Party talks have both the common interests of realizing the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the special interests of each of the six parties. The aim of the DPRK is to achieve normal diplomatic relations between the United States and Japan; South Korea and Japan are to safeguard national security and stability; the United States is to safeguard the hegemony of Northeast Asia and its nuclear non-proliferation system; and China is considering it for geopolitical reasons. The independence of the North Korean regime had to be preserved; Russia was seeking its interests in Northeast Asia. It is this common interest that drives the six-party cooperation and their special interests make it difficult for the six-party talks to proceed. In this seemingly complex relationship of interests, there is a delicate balance of interests, that is, the alliance of America, Japan and South Korea against China, Russia and North Korea. From the beginning of the first round of six-party talks to the end of the sixth round of six-party talks, although the six parties reached some consensus on the North Korean nuclear issue and signed a presidential statement, no substantial progress was made. To this day, the North Korean nuclear issue remains unresolved, and the return of the Runner to the six-Party talks remains elusive. There are at least three possibilities for the future direction of the North Korean nuclear issue: the first possibility is that the North Korean nuclear issue has been postponed indefinitely, and the second possibility is that the United States has adopted a "pre-emptive" military strategy. The third possibility is a peaceful settlement of the North Korean nuclear issue under the six-Party talks. The last possibility is a desire, driven by interest, that is the only wish for the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國政法大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號】：D815.2
本文編號：2191574
[Abstract]:The North Korean nuclear issue has not been an isolated regional issue or a single nuclear issue. It not only puzzles the security of Northeast Asia, but also affects the global strategic layout. The Korean Peninsula is the last position of ideological antagonism during the Cold War. It is the frontier region of the United States hostile to the Korean regime, containing the rise of China and guarding against Russia. The United States has always regarded North Korea as an "axis of evil" and a "rogue country", and North Korea is eager to normalize relations between North Korea and Japan. It is against this background that the North Korean nuclear issue is a wishful approach to reconciliation between North Korea and the United States. However, from the beginning of the North Korean nuclear issue, it is doomed that the North Korean nuclear issue is not a bilateral issue between the DPRK and the United States, and that it involves complicated issues and factors. It not only disturbs the peace and stability in Northeast Asia, but also violates the United States' great taboo of maintaining global nuclear balance. The denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is in the interests of the United States and the Northeast Asian countries, and the question of the DPRK and the United States is rooted in deep-rooted mistrust. So that the North Korean nuclear issue has to be resolved under the six-party talks under the multilateral mechanism. China, the United States, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and the six countries participating in the Six-Party talks have both the common interests of realizing the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the special interests of each of the six parties. The aim of the DPRK is to achieve normal diplomatic relations between the United States and Japan; South Korea and Japan are to safeguard national security and stability; the United States is to safeguard the hegemony of Northeast Asia and its nuclear non-proliferation system; and China is considering it for geopolitical reasons. The independence of the North Korean regime had to be preserved; Russia was seeking its interests in Northeast Asia. It is this common interest that drives the six-party cooperation and their special interests make it difficult for the six-party talks to proceed. In this seemingly complex relationship of interests, there is a delicate balance of interests, that is, the alliance of America, Japan and South Korea against China, Russia and North Korea. From the beginning of the first round of six-party talks to the end of the sixth round of six-party talks, although the six parties reached some consensus on the North Korean nuclear issue and signed a presidential statement, no substantial progress was made. To this day, the North Korean nuclear issue remains unresolved, and the return of the Runner to the six-Party talks remains elusive. There are at least three possibilities for the future direction of the North Korean nuclear issue: the first possibility is that the North Korean nuclear issue has been postponed indefinitely, and the second possibility is that the United States has adopted a "pre-emptive" military strategy. The third possibility is a peaceful settlement of the North Korean nuclear issue under the six-Party talks. The last possibility is a desire, driven by interest, that is the only wish for the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國政法大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號】：D815.2
【參考文獻(xiàn)】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條
1 仇發(fā)華;中國在朝鮮核問題上的作用及其受局限的原因分析[J];東北亞論壇;2005年02期
2 李熙玉;韓國的視角:韓美關(guān)系、東北亞均衡者以及六方會談[J];當(dāng)代韓國;2005年03期
3 姜宅九;;中國參與六方會談:斡旋角色與前景[J];當(dāng)代亞太;2007年02期
4 倪保志;冷戰(zhàn)后國際格局的兩重性[J];當(dāng)代世界社會主義問題;2001年03期
5 李南周,肖偉山;朝核問題的發(fā)展與東北亞的和平[J];讀書;2003年11期
6 魯義;;朝核問題與六方會談[J];國際關(guān)系學(xué)院學(xué)報;2006年01期
7 姜宅九;;中國地區(qū)多邊安全合作的動因[J];國際政治科學(xué);2006年01期
8 朱鋒;六方會談:“朝核問題”還是“朝鮮問題”?[J];國際政治研究;2005年03期
9 蔡永鉉;“朝鮮問題”與19世紀(jì)后期東北亞國際關(guān)系[J];吉林大學(xué)社會科學(xué)學(xué)報;1993年04期
10 苗萌;;試析六方會談各方在朝核問題上的考慮及所扮演的角色[J];理論觀察;2008年01期
，本文編號：2191574
本文鏈接：http://sikaile.net/shekelunwen/waijiao/2191574.html
最近更新
教材專著
