【摘要】：歷史上,烏克蘭曾經(jīng)遭受不同帝國的長期占領(lǐng),從而產(chǎn)生"雙重被動控制"和"彈性邊界"兩個國家特征。蘇聯(lián)解體后,烏克蘭開始表現(xiàn)出新的國家特征,"雙重對外依賴"與"彈性認同"被不斷強化。"顏色革命"之后,這兩個特征的"敏感性"和"脆弱性"都顯著增強,導(dǎo)致平衡型外交戰(zhàn)略陷入"兩難",一場深刻影響國際格局的烏克蘭危機由此爆發(fā)。運用"雙重對外依賴"曲線與"彈性認同"政治預(yù)算線構(gòu)建起來的分析模型解釋烏克蘭危機,具有邏輯方面的優(yōu)勢,并且可以說明烏克蘭這個國家存在著"三元悖論",即在"雙重對外依賴"、"彈性認同"和"不成熟民主政治"之間,三者不能同時兼容,這一結(jié)論對于烏克蘭未來走向的判斷,具有重要的啟示意義。
[Abstract]:Historically, Ukraine has been subjected to a long period of occupation by different empires, resulting in "double passive control" and "flexible borders". After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine began to show a new national identity, "double external dependence" and "elastic identity" are constantly strengthened. After the color revolution, the "sensitivity" and "fragility" of the two characteristics increased significantly, resulting in a dilemma for the balanced diplomatic strategy and the outbreak of a crisis in Ukraine, which had a profound impact on the international situation. Using the analysis model of "double external dependence" curve and "elastic identity" political budget line to explain Ukraine crisis, it has logical advantages. It can also be explained that Ukraine has a "ternary paradox", that is, between "dual external dependence", "flexible identity" and "immature democratic politics," the three cannot be compatible at the same time. This conclusion is a judgment on the future direction of Ukraine. It has important enlightening significance.
【作者單位】： 中國社會科學(xué)院俄羅斯東歐中亞研究所;復(fù)旦大學(xué)俄羅斯中亞研究中心;
【基金】：國家社科基金“‘絲綢之路經(jīng)濟帶'建設(shè)中合作與競爭的戰(zhàn)略解析”(編號:14CGJ008) 中國博士后科學(xué)基金面上資助(編號:2015M570313)的階段性研究成果
【分類號】：D815

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