本文選題：朝核危機(jī) + “旁觀為主”�。� 參考：《曲阜師范大學(xué)》2010年碩士論文

【摘要】： 朝核危機(jī)由來已久,自20世紀(jì)90年代爆發(fā)至今的近二十年里,危機(jī)反反復(fù)復(fù),其產(chǎn)生的影響極為廣泛。因此,朝核危機(jī)歷來是各國政府及學(xué)術(shù)界關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。朝鮮與中國“唇齒相依”,朝核危機(jī)的解決攸關(guān)中國的安全及外交,是中國政府必須認(rèn)真處理的一個關(guān)鍵問題。 繼90年代第一次朝核危機(jī)之后,2002年朝核危機(jī)再度爆發(fā),美朝雙方一度劍拔弩張。朝核危機(jī)成因復(fù)雜,美朝角力背景深刻,外交和平解決之路一波三折,前進(jìn)中有反復(fù)、僵持中見起伏。作為冷戰(zhàn)的“遺產(chǎn)”,朝核危機(jī)的爆發(fā)并不是偶然的,有著深刻的歷史根源和現(xiàn)實(shí)誘因,既是20世紀(jì)90年代初核危機(jī)的延續(xù),又是在新的國際環(huán)境下美朝矛盾的總爆發(fā)。朝核危機(jī)使冷戰(zhàn)后東北亞地區(qū)潛藏的各種矛盾紛顯出來,極大地震撼了東北亞地區(qū)格局,對冷戰(zhàn)后的國際形勢產(chǎn)生了重大消極影響。 與朝鮮有著特殊歷史關(guān)系的中國,在不同時期,外交政策又存在一定的變化與差異。具體來說,中國的朝核政策經(jīng)歷了兩次調(diào)整：由“旁觀為主”到“適度介入”,由“適度介入”到“積極斡旋”。作出這樣的政策調(diào)整主要是中國自身認(rèn)識轉(zhuǎn)變的結(jié)果,但也不能忽視朝美等國家的促進(jìn)作用。 從“三方會談”到“六方會談”的召開,從朝美對立到對話的開展,從主席聲明到共同文件的發(fā)表,中國在解決朝核危機(jī)過程中越來越發(fā)揮建設(shè)性作用,產(chǎn)生了積極影響。但因中國在解決朝核危機(jī)上的獨(dú)特角色,她的“作為”必然要受到一定的局限。因此,解決朝核危機(jī)的外交進(jìn)程要獲得實(shí)質(zhì)性進(jìn)展,還有很長的路要走。 展望朝核危機(jī)未來發(fā)展的趨向,筆者預(yù)測可能出現(xiàn)三種情況：通過雙邊或多邊談判,和平解決；美國對朝鮮實(shí)施經(jīng)濟(jì)制裁,甚至不惜對朝軍事設(shè)施發(fā)起攻擊,繼而在東北亞引發(fā)一場局部戰(zhàn)爭；朝美雙方互不相讓,朝核危機(jī)久拖不決,朝鮮強(qiáng)行突破核門檻成為實(shí)際擁有核武器的國家。作為六方會談主辦國,在今后的時間里,中國將繼續(xù)努力,根據(jù)事態(tài)發(fā)展適時調(diào)整外交策略,促使危機(jī)朝著有利于世界和諧發(fā)展的方向獲得徹底解決。
[Abstract]:North Korea nuclear crisis has a long history, since the outbreak of the 1990s to nearly 20 years, the crisis over and over again, its impact is extremely extensive. Therefore, the North Korean nuclear crisis has always been the focus of attention of governments and academia. China's security and diplomacy are at stake in the resolution of the North Korean nuclear crisis, a key issue that the Chinese government must deal with seriously. After the first North Korean nuclear crisis in the 1990s, the North Korean nuclear crisis broke out again in 2002, and the United States and North Korea were at loggerheads. The cause of the North Korean nuclear crisis is complicated, the background of the US and North Korea wrestling is profound, the diplomatic peaceful settlement road is twists and turns, the progress has been repeated, and the stalemate has seen ups and downs. As the "legacy" of the Cold War, the outbreak of the North Korean nuclear crisis is not accidental. It has profound historical roots and realistic inducements. It is not only the continuation of the nuclear crisis in the early 1990s, but also the total outbreak of the contradiction between the United States and the DPRK under the new international environment. The nuclear crisis in North Korea has brought out all kinds of hidden contradictions in Northeast Asia after the Cold War, greatly shocked the pattern of Northeast Asia, and had a significant negative impact on the international situation after the Cold War. China, which has special historical relationship with North Korea, has some changes and differences in foreign policy in different periods. Specifically, China's North Korean nuclear policy has undergone two adjustments: from "onlookers" to "moderate intervention", from "moderate intervention" to "positive mediation". Such a policy adjustment is mainly the result of China's own change of perception, but it should not ignore the promoting role of countries such as North Korea and the United States. From the "tripartite talks" to the "six-party talks", from the confrontation between the DPRK and the United States to the development of the dialogue, from the presidential statement to the publication of the joint document, China has played a more and more constructive role in the process of resolving the DPRK nuclear crisis and has had a positive impact. However, due to China's unique role in resolving the North Korean nuclear crisis, her action is bound to be limited. Therefore, there is still a long way to go before substantial progress is made in the diplomatic process to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis. Looking forward to the future development trend of the North Korean nuclear crisis, the author predicts that there may be three possible situations: peaceful settlement through bilateral or multilateral negotiations, economic sanctions imposed by the United States against the DPRK, and even attacks on military installations in the DPRK. Then a local war was triggered in Northeast Asia; the DPRK and the United States did not give way to each other, and the North Korean nuclear crisis dragged on for a long time, and North Korea forcibly broke through the nuclear threshold to become a country that actually possessed nuclear weapons. As the host country of the Six-Party talks, China will continue to make efforts to adjust its diplomatic strategy in accordance with the developments in the future, so that the crisis can be resolved once and for all in a direction conducive to the harmonious development of the world.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：曲阜師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：D815.2;D822.3

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 金光哲;李明博政府實(shí)用主義對朝政策與韓朝關(guān)系研究[D];延邊大學(xué);2012年

2 李盈懿;中國政府在歷次朝核危機(jī)中的外交政策分析[D];復(fù)旦大學(xué);2012年

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本文編號：1962130