本文選題：《全面禁止核試驗(yàn)條約》 + 地緣政治　； 參考：《國(guó)際論壇》2017年03期

【摘要】：《全面禁止核試驗(yàn)條約》已經(jīng)達(dá)成20周年卻遲遲不能生效,其面臨的首要困境在于條約生效所必要的最后8個(gè)"附件2"國(guó)家間存在長(zhǎng)期的地緣政治競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和互信缺失。各國(guó)核政策互相綁定在一起導(dǎo)致在加入條約的問(wèn)題上出現(xiàn)雙邊博弈、地區(qū)內(nèi)博弈以及地區(qū)間博弈嵌套的復(fù)雜環(huán)境。此外,條約本身的部分條款和相關(guān)制度設(shè)計(jì)也存在缺陷。盡管是為了提升條約的普遍性,但將條約的生效與世界上最為復(fù)雜的幾組地緣政治關(guān)系相掛鉤很容易導(dǎo)致自我綁架。由于條約生效進(jìn)程遲滯而科學(xué)技術(shù)不斷發(fā)展,已經(jīng)建成的全球監(jiān)測(cè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)和計(jì)算機(jī)模擬技術(shù)使得條約生效的意義出現(xiàn)空洞化�？紤]到短期內(nèi)正面解決地緣政治困境存在巨大挑戰(zhàn),今后"名人小組"和"青年小組"將成為繼續(xù)推動(dòng)相關(guān)進(jìn)程的主要力量。
[Abstract]:The entry into force of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), which has already reached its 20th anniversary but has been delayed, faces a major dilemma due to the long-standing geopolitical competition and lack of mutual trust among the last eight "Annex 2" States necessary for the Treaty to enter into force. The nuclear policies of various countries are bound together, which leads to the complicated environment of bilateral game, intraregional game and inter-region game nesting on the issue of joining the treaty. In addition, some provisions of the treaty itself and the design of the relevant system also have defects. Although it is intended to promote the universality of the treaty, linking its entry into force to some of the world's most complex geopolitical relationships can easily lead to self-kidnapping. Due to the slow entry into force of the treaty and the continuous development of science and technology, the significance of the entry into force of the treaty has been hollowed out by the global monitoring network and computer simulation technology. Given the enormous challenges of dealing positively with geopolitical dilemmas in the short term, the "panel of celebrities" and the "youth group" will be the main force behind the process in the future.
【作者單位】： 復(fù)旦大學(xué)國(guó)際關(guān)系與公共事務(wù)學(xué)院;
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：D815.2;D993.8

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