發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-27 04:05

  本文選題：伊朗核項(xiàng)目 + 軍事打擊��； 參考：《外交學(xué)院》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：伊朗核項(xiàng)目依舊是現(xiàn)任美國政府所面臨的一個(gè)重大挑戰(zhàn)。該問題的持續(xù)升溫，加劇了外界關(guān)于以色列、或美國、或兩者聯(lián)合可能會(huì)在2012年對(duì)伊朗發(fā)動(dòng)軍事打擊的猜測(cè)。由于這一問題懸而不決，加之解決該問題的緊急性，目前有許多論述這一問題的學(xué)術(shù)著作、政府官方報(bào)告、政策建議。其中很多都試圖回答一個(gè)同樣的問題：應(yīng)如何應(yīng)付伊朗？但卻忽視回答這樣一個(gè)問題，即伊朗的核項(xiàng)目一定會(huì)走向軍事化嗎？本文利用有關(guān)核擴(kuò)散的理論和數(shù)據(jù)，分析伊朗發(fā)展核項(xiàng)目的目的，以回答上述問題。理解了伊朗堅(jiān)持發(fā)展核項(xiàng)目的可能動(dòng)因后，本文重點(diǎn)分析美國對(duì)伊朗核項(xiàng)目的主要政策。2012年6月開始，美國將加大對(duì)伊朗的制裁，并且關(guān)于今年以色列或美國將對(duì)伊朗實(shí)施軍事打擊的猜測(cè)也與日劇增，在這樣的背景下，本文分析了通過實(shí)施軍事打擊以阻止伊朗核項(xiàng)目這一政策的不可行性，同時(shí)還論述了經(jīng)濟(jì)制裁在改變伊朗行為方面的局限性。本文進(jìn)一步探討了接觸政策在應(yīng)對(duì)伊朗核項(xiàng)目的可行性。鑒于美國歷屆政府對(duì)伊朗外交政策的失敗，本文提出了一種新的美國對(duì)伊政策框架——漸進(jìn)式接觸，即一種逐步的、可核實(shí)的、基于修復(fù)關(guān)系的接觸模式，旨在承認(rèn)伊朗有發(fā)展和平核項(xiàng)目權(quán)利的同時(shí)，逐步消除伊朗走向核武器研發(fā)的動(dòng)機(jī)。本文認(rèn)為它是美國應(yīng)對(duì)伊朗核項(xiàng)目的一種潛在可行政策。
[Abstract]:Iran's nuclear program remains a major challenge for the current administration. The continuing warming of the issue has fuelled speculation that Israel, or the United States, or a combination of the two could launch a military strike against Iran in 2012. Due to the uncertainty of this issue and the urgency of solving it, there are many academic works, official reports of the government, and policy recommendations on this issue. Many of them are trying to answer the same question: how should Iran be dealt with? But it ignores the question: will Iran's nuclear program be militarized? Based on the theory and data of nuclear proliferation, the purpose of Iran's nuclear program is analyzed to answer the above questions. After understanding the possible motivations of Iran's insistence on developing its nuclear program, this article focuses on the main US policy towards Iran's nuclear program. From June 2012 onwards, the United States will increase sanctions against Iran. And the speculation that Israel or the United States will carry out a military strike against Iran this year has also increased sharply. Against this background, this paper analyzes the infeasibility of the policy of stopping Iran's nuclear program by carrying out military strikes. It also discusses the limitations of economic sanctions in changing Iran's behavior. This paper further discusses the feasibility of engagement policy in dealing with Iran's nuclear program. In view of the failure of successive US administrations in their foreign policy toward Iran, this paper proposes a new framework of US policy toward Iran-gradual engagement, which is a gradual, verifiable, restoration-based contact model. The aim is to recognize Iran's right to develop a peaceful nuclear program while gradually eliminating its motivation to develop nuclear weapons. This paper argues that it is a potential policy for the United States to deal with Iran's nuclear program.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：外交學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：D871.2

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本文編號(hào)：1809088