【摘要】：本文基于向量自回歸模型研究我國(guó)社會(huì)保障與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之間的關(guān)系,通過(guò)引入中間因素—居民消費(fèi)來(lái)研究社會(huì)保障與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之間的相互作用機(jī)制。本文首先運(yùn)用層次分析法分別算出經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展綜合指標(biāo)和社會(huì)保障綜合指標(biāo)的各子指標(biāo)的權(quán)重,然后算出綜合指標(biāo)。最后通過(guò)單位根檢驗(yàn)、構(gòu)建向量自回歸模型、確定最優(yōu)滯后階數(shù)、模型平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、脈沖響應(yīng)與方差分解等流程研究社會(huì)保障、居民消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展三者之間的相互關(guān)系。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):社會(huì)保障、居民消費(fèi)、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展存在著緊密的關(guān)系,從總體上講三者之間是相互作用、相互促進(jìn)的。經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展是基礎(chǔ),它決定著居民消費(fèi)水平的提升,決定著社會(huì)保障事業(yè)的產(chǎn)生和發(fā)展;同時(shí),社會(huì)保障事業(yè)的發(fā)展對(duì)提高居民消費(fèi)水平、促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展也有著重要的意義;社會(huì)保障事業(yè)對(duì)居民消費(fèi)水平與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展具有雙重作用。目前,由于我國(guó)社會(huì)保障事業(yè)還處于成長(zhǎng)階段,沒(méi)有顯現(xiàn)出來(lái)對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的擠出效應(yīng),對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的促進(jìn)效應(yīng)開(kāi)始顯現(xiàn)并逐漸提高,但促進(jìn)效應(yīng)不夠顯著。從實(shí)證結(jié)果可以看出社會(huì)保障對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的抑制作用要小于社會(huì)保障對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的促進(jìn)作用。所以,提高我國(guó)財(cái)政社保支出水平是促進(jìn)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)健康發(fā)展的可行選擇。
[Abstract]:Based on the vector autoregressive model, this paper studies the relationship between social security and economic development in China, and studies the interaction mechanism between social security and economic development by introducing the intermediate factor-resident consumption. In this paper, the weight of the economic development index and the social security index are calculated by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and then the comprehensive index is calculated. Finally, through the unit root test, build the vector autoregressive model, determine the optimal lag order, model stability test, cointegration test, impulse response and variance decomposition and other processes to study social security. The relationship between resident consumption and economic development. It is found that there are close relations among social security, resident consumption and economic development. Economic development is the foundation, which determines the improvement of the consumption level of the residents and the emergence and development of the social security undertakings, at the same time, the development of the social security undertakings plays an important role in improving the consumption level of the residents and promoting the economic development. The social security enterprise has the dual function to the resident consumption level and the economic development. At present, because the social security in our country is still in the growing stage, it does not show the crowding out effect to our country's economic development, and the promoting effect to our country's economic development begins to appear and increases gradually, but the promoting effect is not obvious enough. From the empirical results, we can see that the inhibitory effect of social security on economic development is smaller than that of social security on economic development. Therefore, it is a feasible choice to promote the healthy development of our economy by raising the expenditure level of our country's finance and social security.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：青島大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：D632.1;F126.1;F124

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