【摘要】：采用向量自回歸模型、向量誤差修正模型以及脈沖響應(yīng)和方差分解方法,對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、社會(huì)保障和儲(chǔ)蓄的互動(dòng)性關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。結(jié)果表明,從長(zhǎng)期看,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)社會(huì)保障有巨大的影響,但影響的方向存在不確定性,同時(shí),經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)也會(huì)促使儲(chǔ)蓄率的上升。社會(huì)保障對(duì)儲(chǔ)蓄率有顯著的促進(jìn)作用,當(dāng)社會(huì)保障轉(zhuǎn)移收入提高,儲(chǔ)蓄率也有相應(yīng)增長(zhǎng),而儲(chǔ)蓄率的上升并沒(méi)有對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)起到促進(jìn)作用。此外,向量誤差模型也表明經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、社會(huì)保障和國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄率都受到自身滯后期的影響。
[Abstract]:Using vector autoregressive model, vector error correction model, impulse response and variance decomposition method, this paper makes an empirical study on the interactive relationship among economic growth, social security and savings. The results show that, in the long run, economic growth has a great impact on social security, but the direction of the impact is uncertain. At the same time, economic growth will also promote the increase of savings rate. Social security has a significant role in promoting the savings rate. When the social security transfer income increases, the savings rate also increases correspondingly, but the increase of the savings rate does not promote the economic growth. In addition, the vector error model also shows that economic growth, social security and national savings rate are affected by their own lag.
【作者單位】： 浙江廣播電視大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：浙江省教育廳科研資助項(xiàng)目(Y201328653)
【分類號(hào)】：F124.1;F832.22;D632.1
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本文編號(hào)：2156694