【摘要】：西方學者們對消費行為與消費函數(shù)進行過系統(tǒng)性的研究,本文首先簡要的闡述了經(jīng)典消費理論,并就這些理論中的差異進行了比較。再結(jié)合國內(nèi)外學者對中國消費率的研究成果,建立了包含稅收結(jié)構(gòu)的居民消費率模型,試圖分析我國稅收結(jié)構(gòu)對居民消費率的影響,并提出相關(guān)政策建議。本文采用的是面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,選取了全國30地區(qū)1999年-2104年的數(shù)據(jù),選取的控制變量包括收入水平、收入增長率、收入差距、實際利率、通貨膨脹、社會保障以及人口結(jié)構(gòu)。模型方面,先建立了不含居民消費率滯后項的靜態(tài)面板模型,然后將居民消費率滯后一期作為解釋變量加入到模型,構(gòu)建了動態(tài)面板模型。經(jīng)過F檢驗與Hausman檢驗,靜態(tài)面板模型選用的是固定效應(yīng)估計;動態(tài)面模型估計方法是廣義矩估計法。通過比較靜態(tài)與動態(tài)模型的估計結(jié)果,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)動態(tài)面板模型設(shè)計更符合中國的情況,相關(guān)的參數(shù)的檢驗也更顯著。實證結(jié)果得到了本文的重要的結(jié)論:間接稅比例過高是導致我國居民消費不高的原因之一。從控制變量結(jié)果看,收入水平的增加并不一定能提高居民消費率,還要取決于收入差距,收入差距的擴大會顯著的使居民消費率下降。實際利率、少兒撫養(yǎng)比與居民消費率之間的關(guān)系和眾多學者的研究結(jié)論一致,老年撫養(yǎng)比與生命周期理論不符合,社會保障的系數(shù)為正,但不顯著。政策建議方面,本文提出了以下幾點:1、逐步優(yōu)化稅收結(jié)構(gòu),提高直接稅比重;2實施積極的財政政策,縮小收入差距;3、擴大社會保障支出,促進社保預期形成。
[Abstract]:The western scholars have carried on the systematic research to the consumption behavior and the consumption function, this article first briefly elaborated the classical consumption theory, and has carried on the comparison to these theories difference. Combined with the domestic and foreign scholars' research on the consumption rate of China, this paper establishes the model of resident consumption rate including the tax structure, and tries to analyze the influence of the tax structure on the consumption rate of Chinese residents, and puts forward some relevant policy recommendations. In this paper, the panel data model is used to select the data from 1999 to 2104 in 30 regions of China. The control variables include income level, income growth rate, income gap, real interest rate, inflation, social security and population structure. In terms of the model, the static panel model without the lag term of resident consumption rate is first established, and then the dynamic panel model is constructed by adding the resident consumption rate lag period as an explanatory variable to the model. After F test and Hausman test, the static panel model is fixed effect estimation, and the dynamic surface model estimation method is generalized moment estimation method. By comparing the estimation results of the static and dynamic models, it is found that the dynamic panel model design is more suitable for the situation in China, and the test of the related parameters is more significant. The empirical results show that the high proportion of indirect tax is one of the reasons for the low consumption of Chinese residents. From the results of control variables, the increase of income level does not necessarily improve the consumption rate of residents, but also depends on the income gap, the widening of income gap will significantly reduce the consumption rate of residents. The relationship between the real interest rate, the dependency ratio of children and the consumption rate of the residents is consistent with the conclusions of many scholars. The dependency ratio of the elderly does not accord with the theory of life cycle, and the coefficient of social security is positive, but not significant. In terms of policy suggestions, this paper puts forward the following points: 1, gradually optimize the tax structure, increase the proportion of direct tax to implement active fiscal policy, narrow the income gap, expand social security expenditure, and promote the formation of social security expectation.
【學位授予單位】：華南理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F812.42;F126.1

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本文編號：2131007