本文選題：延遲退休年齡 + 基本養(yǎng)老保險基金　； 參考：《山東大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著計劃生育政策的貫徹執(zhí)行,人口數(shù)量增速降低、人口老齡化水平加劇,人口紅利的流失所帶來的經(jīng)濟沖擊,進一步加劇了本就不完善的養(yǎng)老保險制度與越來越多的養(yǎng)老金需求之間的矛盾。我國在1997年確定了養(yǎng)老保險制度改革的目標(biāo),將社會統(tǒng)籌和個人賬戶兩種模式同時施行,統(tǒng)籌部分由領(lǐng)取年限決定,現(xiàn)收現(xiàn)付,為職工離休后生活提供保障；個人賬戶部分采取個人累計制,用以補充社會統(tǒng)籌部分的資金,個人繼承。但是根據(jù)《中國養(yǎng)老金發(fā)展報告2014》,至2013年底,我國城鎮(zhèn)的基本養(yǎng)老保險個人賬戶有2.9萬億,但空賬比例卻有86.2%,相應(yīng)的個人賬戶實際金額只占據(jù)了十幾個百分點�？梢栽O(shè)想,如果沒有良好的預(yù)警機制及相應(yīng)的改革措施的出臺,在不久以后,我國將很難解決養(yǎng)老金虧空所帶來的一系列挑戰(zhàn),從而會引發(fā)政府誠信缺失,社會動蕩等一系列并發(fā)問題,甚至?xí)霈F(xiàn)更嚴重的后果。在這樣的背景下,如何解決日益增大的養(yǎng)老金缺口問題則成為了當(dāng)前政府工作和學(xué)界研究的重中之重。本研究以此為出發(fā)點,考慮到不同人群人力資本差異及區(qū)域差異,結(jié)合我國養(yǎng)老金現(xiàn)狀及延遲退休影響因素,綜合西方國家先進經(jīng)驗,通過數(shù)據(jù)對延遲退休年齡對養(yǎng)老保險基金缺口的影響進行分析,建議適時調(diào)整養(yǎng)老保險制度,調(diào)整分配方式和延遲退休年齡。進而針對延遲退休政策,提出合理的完善措施,加速養(yǎng)老金合理運行及發(fā)展。本文首先整理了國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻,查閱相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),試圖通過資料法對國際上已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)的較為成熟的延遲退休做法進行深度分析,總結(jié)并借鑒其適合于我國特殊社會環(huán)境的相關(guān)經(jīng)驗；其次,根據(jù)養(yǎng)老金運行現(xiàn)狀,對資金缺口產(chǎn)生原因及影響因素進行數(shù)學(xué)模型分析,用實證的方法證明延遲退休年齡對于養(yǎng)老金個人賬戶和基金統(tǒng)籌等養(yǎng)老金收支平衡方面的影響效應(yīng),進一步測算延遲退休年齡的相關(guān)性、合理性；再次,通過延遲退休的人口預(yù)測模型為基礎(chǔ),建立延遲退休對參保人數(shù)、退休人數(shù)及養(yǎng)老金基金缺口影響的仿真測算,利用往年數(shù)據(jù)和實際經(jīng)驗,測量延遲退休年齡下,養(yǎng)老金的收支平衡的改良情況；最后,以測算結(jié)果為標(biāo)準(zhǔn),通過杜絕不合理的非正常退休、逐步實現(xiàn)男女同齡退休、建立符合國情的彈性退休策略、建立養(yǎng)老金繳費年限激勵機制等有計劃、分步驟的延遲退休年齡政策來調(diào)整延遲退休政策的落地方式,以期促進養(yǎng)老金收支平衡,為我國的社會保障事業(yè)盡一份微薄之力。
[Abstract]:With the implementation of the family planning policy, the economic impact caused by the decrease in the population growth rate, the aggravation of the aging population, and the loss of the demographic dividend,Further exacerbated the already imperfect pension insurance system and more and more pension demand between the contradiction.In 1997, China established the goal of the reform of the old-age insurance system. The two models of social planning and personal account were implemented simultaneously. The overall plan was determined by the number of years received and paid in cash, which provided the guarantee for the employees' life after their retirement.The personal account part adopts the personal accumulative system, which is used to supplement the funds of the social integration part and personal inheritance.However, according to the China Pension Development report 2014, by the end of 2013, there were 2.9 trillion basic old-age insurance personal accounts in China's cities and towns, but the proportion of empty accounts was 86.2 percent, and the actual amount of the corresponding personal accounts occupied only a dozen percentage points.We can imagine that without a good early warning mechanism and the introduction of corresponding reform measures, it will be very difficult for our country to solve a series of challenges brought about by the pension deficit in the near future, which will lead to a lack of integrity on the part of the government.Social unrest and a series of concurrency problems, even more serious consequences.In this context, how to solve the problem of increasing pension gap has become the top priority of current government work and academic research.This research takes this as the starting point, considering the difference of human capital and regional difference of different people, combining the current situation of pension and the influence factors of delayed retirement in our country, synthesizing the advanced experience of western countries.Based on the analysis of the effect of late retirement age on the gap of pension fund, it is suggested that the pension insurance system should be adjusted in good time, the distribution method and the late retirement age should be adjusted.Then, in view of the delay retirement policy, puts forward the reasonable consummation measure, speeds up the pension reasonable operation and the development.This paper first collates the relevant literature at home and abroad, looks up the relevant data, attempts to carry on the in-depth analysis through the data method to the international already appeared more mature deferred retirement practice.Summarize and draw lessons from the relevant experience suitable for the special social environment of our country. Secondly, according to the current situation of pension operation, analyze the causes of the fund gap and its influencing factors by mathematical model.Using the empirical method to prove the impact of the late retirement age on pension income and expenditure balance, such as pension individual account and fund balance, and further calculate the correlation of the delay retirement age, rationality; third,Based on the population prediction model of delayed retirement, a simulation calculation of the effect of delayed retirement on the number of insured persons, the number of retirees and the gap of pension fund is established. The data of previous years and actual experience are used to measure the delayed retirement age.The improvement of the balance of income and expenditure of pensions; finally, by eliminating unreasonable and abnormal retirement, gradually realizing the retirement of men and women of the same age, and establishing a flexible retirement strategy suited to the national conditions, according to the results of calculation,In order to promote the balance of pension income and expenditure and contribute to the social security of our country, we should set up the incentive mechanism of pension contributory years and so on, step by step the policy of delaying retirement age to adjust the mode of falling into the ground of delayed retirement policy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F842.67

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前8條

1 張松彪;劉長庚;;政府每年應(yīng)承擔(dān)的養(yǎng)老金轉(zhuǎn)軌成本規(guī)模測算[J];統(tǒng)計與決策;2016年02期

2 陳元剛;馮丹;蔡振武;;新型軍人養(yǎng)老保險制度的構(gòu)建及其轉(zhuǎn)軌成本測算[J];西部論壇;2015年03期

3 鄒鐵釘;葉航;;普遍延遲退休還是分類延遲退休——基于養(yǎng)老金虧空與勞動力市場的聯(lián)動效應(yīng)視角[J];財貿(mào)經(jīng)濟;2015年04期

4 陸明濤;;中國養(yǎng)老金雙軌制并軌改革的成本測算[J];老齡科學(xué)研究;2013年07期

5 陳豐元;米海杰;桂琰;蔡澤昊;靳雪晨;;基本養(yǎng)老保險轉(zhuǎn)軌成本的計算偏誤與償付機制[J];保險研究;2013年11期

6 羅丹;;關(guān)于我國人口老齡化背景下延遲法定退休年齡的分析[J];時代金融;2012年15期

7 劉永欣;;我國基本養(yǎng)老保險個人賬戶“空賬”成因及對策建議[J];吉林金融研究;2010年12期

8 孫祁祥;“空賬”與轉(zhuǎn)軌成本——中國養(yǎng)老保險體制改革的效應(yīng)分析[J];經(jīng)濟研究;2001年05期

，

本文編號：1747813