【摘要】：在我國人口老齡化程度日益提高的背景下,研究人口老齡化對房價的影響不僅迫切而且重要。根據(jù)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平不同,把我國31個省份劃分為發(fā)達地區(qū)、次發(fā)達地區(qū)和欠發(fā)達地區(qū)3個區(qū)域,運用2000—2014年的省級面板數(shù)據(jù)進行實證分析后發(fā)現(xiàn):從全國層面看,人口老齡化是影響房價變動的一個重要影響因素;從區(qū)域?qū)用婵?人口老齡化對房價的影響存在著顯著的差異,即發(fā)達地區(qū)人口老齡化與房價有顯著的負相關(guān)性,次發(fā)達地區(qū)人口老齡化與房價有較弱的負相關(guān)性,而欠發(fā)達地區(qū)人口老齡化與房價有顯著的正相關(guān)性;此外,不同區(qū)域影響房價的其他因素也存在顯著的差異。因此,為更好地應(yīng)對人口老齡化對我國房地產(chǎn)市場的沖擊,促進我國房地產(chǎn)市場健康穩(wěn)定發(fā)展,需要進一步完善我國的人口政策,促進地方經(jīng)濟的持續(xù)發(fā)展,使地方政府在穩(wěn)定房地產(chǎn)市場方面發(fā)揮更大的作用。
[Abstract]:Under the background of increasing population aging in China, it is not only urgent but also important to study the effect of population aging on house price. According to the different level of economic development, 31 provinces in China are divided into three regions: developed region, sub-developed region and underdeveloped region. The empirical analysis of provincial panel data from 2000 to 2014 shows that: from the national level, The aging of population is an important factor that affects the change of house price. At the regional level, there are significant differences in the impact of population aging on house prices, that is, there is a significant negative correlation between population aging and house prices in developed regions, and a weak negative correlation between population aging and house prices in sub-developed regions. However, there is a significant positive correlation between the aging population and house prices in the less developed areas. In addition, there are also significant differences in other factors affecting housing prices in different regions. Therefore, in order to better cope with the impact of population aging on our real estate market and promote the healthy and stable development of our real estate market, it is necessary to further improve our population policy and promote the sustainable development of local economy. So that local governments in stabilizing the real estate market play a greater role.
【作者單位】： 華東師范大學(xué)經(jīng)濟與管理學(xué)部工商管理學(xué)院房地產(chǎn)系;
【基金】：國家社科基金青年項目“新型城鎮(zhèn)化背景下的住房保障體系研究”(項目編號:13CJY040) 上海市人民政府決策咨詢研究課題“上海住房保障體系面臨的問題與對策研究”(項目編號:2016-GZ-04)
【分類號】：D669.6;F299.23

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