【摘要】：上海合作組織是中國(guó)、俄羅斯、哈薩克斯坦、吉爾吉斯斯坦、烏茲別克斯坦和塔吉克斯坦于2001年6月15日在中國(guó)上海宣布成立的永久性政府間國(guó)際組織。上海合作組織是目前唯一在中國(guó)境內(nèi)成立,并以中國(guó)城市命名的地區(qū)性國(guó)際組織。近年來(lái)興起的社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析和復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論給國(guó)際關(guān)系的量化研究提供了一種新穎的研究視角和工具。通過(guò)模型仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)及其數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)果的統(tǒng)計(jì)分析和可視化也在逐步取代基于預(yù)測(cè)的傳統(tǒng)決策分析。本文以基于時(shí)間截面數(shù)據(jù)的縱向網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析為基礎(chǔ),嘗試通過(guò)構(gòu)建權(quán)重網(wǎng)絡(luò)演化模型并引入政策想定干預(yù)實(shí)驗(yàn),較好地識(shí)別了預(yù)想方案的未來(lái)狀況及合理性。論文的主要研究工作及創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)如下:(1)提出了一種新的上海合作組織研究視角。通過(guò)縱向網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析與演化干預(yù)實(shí)驗(yàn)相結(jié)合的方法,深入研究了上海合作組織的網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)與演化特性。通過(guò)引入權(quán)重網(wǎng)絡(luò)建模的概念及方法,解決了傳統(tǒng)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)研究對(duì)于地區(qū)性國(guó)際組織研究存在的諸多問(wèn)題和不足。同時(shí),依據(jù)帶有實(shí)際背景的模擬仿真結(jié)果,能夠更為直觀地幫助決策者全面評(píng)估各種預(yù)想方案的合理性。(2)提出了一種基于影響力感知的上海合作組織權(quán)重網(wǎng)絡(luò)演化模型。構(gòu)建并計(jì)算了上海合作組織成員國(guó)及干預(yù)對(duì)象的國(guó)家實(shí)力作為模型演化的初始條件。將國(guó)家實(shí)力作為有限支撐分布引入適應(yīng)度模型,基于可變對(duì)象的局域世界演化模型,擬合不同國(guó)家的合作偏好。最后分別用理論解析和仿真結(jié)果驗(yàn)證了演化模型強(qiáng)度分布及其無(wú)標(biāo)度特性,并確定了國(guó)家“影響力”作為干預(yù)實(shí)驗(yàn)的觀測(cè)指標(biāo)。(3)研究了想定條件下的上海合作組織權(quán)重網(wǎng)絡(luò)演化模型干預(yù)實(shí)驗(yàn)。通過(guò)抽象縱向數(shù)據(jù)分析過(guò)程中發(fā)現(xiàn)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)屬性及變化趨勢(shì),確定了重要國(guó)家、偏好選擇以及緊張關(guān)系三類(lèi)干預(yù)實(shí)驗(yàn)。由于網(wǎng)絡(luò)演化模型本身運(yùn)行穩(wěn)定,通過(guò)對(duì)比干預(yù)行為前后網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)以及核心節(jié)點(diǎn)的指標(biāo)變化,就可以確認(rèn)引起系統(tǒng)波動(dòng)的主要原因,并針對(duì)實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果對(duì)上海合作組織發(fā)展提出策略建議。
[Abstract]:The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is a permanent intergovernmental international organization announced by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan on June 15, 2001 in Shanghai, China. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is the only regional international organization established in China and named after a Chinese city. The social network analysis and the complex network theory developed in recent years provide a new perspective and tool for the quantitative study of international relations. The statistical analysis and visualization of the model simulation experiment and its data results are also gradually replacing the traditional decision analysis based on prediction. Based on the longitudinal network analysis based on time section data, this paper attempts to identify the future status and rationality of the proposed scheme by constructing an evolutionary model of the weighted network and introducing a policy scenario intervention experiment. The main research work and innovations are as follows: (1) A new perspective of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is proposed. Through the combination of longitudinal network analysis and evolutionary intervention experiment, the network structure and evolution characteristics of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) were studied. By introducing the concept and method of weighted network modeling, many problems and shortcomings of traditional network topology research for regional international organizations are solved. At the same time, according to the simulation results with actual background, it can help decision-makers to evaluate the rationality of various scenarios. (2) an evolutionary model of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) weight network based on impact perception is proposed. The national strength of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member countries and intervention objects is constructed and calculated as the initial condition for the evolution of the model. The national strength as a finite support distribution is introduced into the fitness model, and based on the local world evolution model of variable objects, the cooperation preferences of different countries are fitted. Finally, the strength distribution and scale-free characteristics of the evolutionary model are verified by theoretical analysis and simulation results. The "influence" of the state is determined as the observation index of the intervention experiment. (3) the experiment of the evolution model of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization weight network under the assumption condition is studied. By analyzing the network structure properties and changing trends in the process of abstract longitudinal data analysis, three kinds of intervention experiments, such as important countries, preference selection and tension, are determined. Because the network evolution model itself runs stably, by comparing the changes of network structure and core node indexes before and after intervention, the main causes of system fluctuation can be identified. According to the results of the experiment, some suggestions on the development of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：國(guó)防科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：D814.1

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