本文選題：婚姻穩(wěn)定性 + 收入沖擊��； 參考：《華中科技大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái),中國(guó)的住房市場(chǎng)發(fā)生了急劇的變化,住房?jī)r(jià)格的上升和下降都引起了一系列的經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題,受到了來(lái)自社會(huì)各個(gè)階層的廣泛關(guān)注。房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中扮演著支柱經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要角色,在不同的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下,國(guó)家出臺(tái)了一系列的房?jī)r(jià)調(diào)控政策。與此同時(shí),中國(guó)的婚姻市場(chǎng)也不斷發(fā)生變化。結(jié)婚數(shù)、離婚數(shù)、復(fù)婚數(shù)都有了不同程度的增長(zhǎng)。在Becker(1977)所開創(chuàng)的婚姻經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中,將離婚歸納為兩個(gè)因素:婚姻錯(cuò)配和收入沖擊,不過(guò)實(shí)證研究中卻很難將兩者的效應(yīng)分離開。在中國(guó),住房與婚姻密切相關(guān),住房與家庭幾乎是等價(jià)的。本文嘗試研究中國(guó)的住房市場(chǎng)對(duì)婚姻穩(wěn)定性的影響,即收入沖擊這個(gè)因素對(duì)婚姻穩(wěn)定性的影響。研究這一點(diǎn)的關(guān)鍵之處是將收入沖擊與婚姻錯(cuò)配對(duì)離婚影響的效應(yīng)剝離開來(lái)。本文運(yùn)用了住房市場(chǎng)上的兩個(gè)現(xiàn)象來(lái)證實(shí)收入沖擊對(duì)離婚的影響:一個(gè)是2010年中國(guó)住房市場(chǎng)上的“限購(gòu)”政策;另一個(gè)是住房市場(chǎng)上未預(yù)期到的價(jià)格波動(dòng)�！跋拶�(gòu)”政策、住房?jī)r(jià)格未預(yù)期到的波動(dòng)對(duì)婚姻都相當(dāng)于外生的沖擊,與婚姻匹配的質(zhì)量是沒有關(guān)系的,因此能夠比較好的測(cè)量出收入沖擊對(duì)離婚的影響。本文通過(guò)計(jì)量結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)“限購(gòu)”會(huì)使得所在地城市的離婚顯著增加243對(duì),相當(dāng)于平均水平的4.5%,限購(gòu)導(dǎo)致“假離婚現(xiàn)象”的產(chǎn)生,危害了婚姻的穩(wěn)定性;且未預(yù)期到的房?jī)r(jià)波動(dòng)也確實(shí)對(duì)離婚產(chǎn)生了正向的沖擊,意料之外的房?jī)r(jià)每上漲10%,離婚增加4%。這些都說(shuō)明了在中國(guó),收入沖擊對(duì)離婚有著顯著的影響,這些收入沖擊與住房市場(chǎng)密切相關(guān),住房市場(chǎng)和婚姻市場(chǎng)密不可分。因此加強(qiáng)對(duì)住房市場(chǎng)的良好調(diào)控,有利于婚姻市場(chǎng)的穩(wěn)定。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's housing market has undergone rapid changes, the rise and fall of housing prices have caused a series of economic problems, has been widely concerned by all sectors of society. The real estate market plays an important role in the national economy. Under the different macroeconomic background, the state has issued a series of housing price control policies. At the same time, China's marriage market is also constantly changing. The number of marriages, divorces, and remarriage have all increased to varying degrees. In the economics of marriage initiated by Beckerman in 1977, divorce is divided into two factors: marriage mismatch and income shock, but it is difficult to separate the two effects in empirical research. In China, housing and marriage are closely related, housing and family is almost equivalent. This paper attempts to study the impact of China's housing market on marriage stability, that is, the impact of income shock on marriage stability. The key to this study is to separate income shocks from the effects of marriage mismatches on divorce. This paper uses two phenomena in the housing market to prove the impact of income shock on divorce: one is the "limited purchase" policy in China's housing market in 2010; the other is the unexpected price fluctuation in the housing market. "restricted purchase" policy, housing prices unexpected fluctuations in marriage are equivalent to exogenous impact, and marriage matching quality is not related, so can better measure the impact of income shocks on divorce. Through the measurement results, it is found that "limited purchase" will significantly increase the number of divorces in the local city by 243 pairs, which is equivalent to the average level of 4.5 pairs. The phenomenon of "false divorce" is caused by the restriction of purchase, which endangers the stability of marriage. And unexpected fluctuations in house prices do have a positive impact on divorce, with unexpected price increases of 10 per cent and divorce by 4 per cent. All this shows that in China, income shock has a significant impact on divorce, these income shocks are closely related to the housing market, housing market and marriage market are inseparable. Therefore, strengthening the good regulation of the housing market is conducive to the stability of the marriage market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;D669.1

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