本文選題：汽車保有量 + 交通擁堵�。� 參考：《北京交通大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著人們生活水平的不斷提高,汽車保有量迅猛增長,城市交通擁堵問題越來越嚴重。面對北京市小汽車快速發(fā)展帶來的交通擁堵問題,北京市提出了限行的政策。無論是限制小汽車還是提倡小汽車,不可否認的是當前北京市汽車保有量已經(jīng)達到了一個飽和的狀態(tài),而且仍然具有繼續(xù)增長的趨勢,這也意味著北京市交通擁堵現(xiàn)象會越來越嚴重。針對這一現(xiàn)狀,提出了本文的研究問題:哪些因素促使北京市汽車保有量的快速增長?快速增長的汽車保有量是如何影響北京市交通擁堵的?文章第一部分探討了北京市汽車保有量快速發(fā)展的整體概況,大致分為兩個方面:北京市汽車保有量發(fā)展的歷程及現(xiàn)狀,分析北京市汽車保有量快速增長的原因。通過搜集大量相關數(shù)據(jù),運用因子分析法定量分析影響北京市汽車保有量的各種可量化因素。結合定量分析的結果,及宏觀政策(汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)政策、汽車市場發(fā)展)、社會因素(汽車使用成本低、公共交通不完善)等定性分析導致汽車保有量快速增長的原因。第二部分主要分析北京市汽車保有量快速增長對城市交通擁堵的影響,大致分為兩個方面。第一方面利用"公地悲劇"模型分析汽車保有量對城市交通的影響機理,居民過度使用汽車,道路資源被過度使用的現(xiàn)象就會發(fā)生,這就會帶來道路擁堵、交通事故、汽車尾氣等典型的負外部性現(xiàn)象。交通事故頻發(fā)及停車難問題,反過來又會進一步加劇交通擁堵現(xiàn)狀。第二方面具體分析汽車保有量快速增長對交通擁堵的影響,利用汽車保有量與城市道路具體數(shù)據(jù),分析車路矛盾是導致交通擁堵的直接原因。再以洛杉磯為例,具體分析汽車、道路、交通擁堵之間的惡性循環(huán)矛盾,警醒北京拒絕選擇"依車發(fā)展"的蔓延式城市化道路,汽車化城市必須從僅僅增加城市道路供給轉向改變道路需求結構,引導居民從小汽車出行轉向公交車、自行車和步行等綠色交通模式。建議通過經(jīng)濟杠桿、宏觀調控、人文教育等手段來限制我國汽車保有量快速發(fā)展,為解決交通擁堵提供合理依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With the continuous improvement of people's living standards and the rapid growth of vehicle ownership, the problem of urban traffic congestion is becoming more and more serious. In the face of the problem of traffic jam caused by the rapid development of cars in Beijing, Beijing has put forward the policy of restricting traffic. Whether it is restricting cars or advocating cars, it is undeniable that the number of cars held in Beijing has reached a saturated state at present, and still has a trend of continued growth. This also means that traffic congestion in Beijing will become more and more serious. In view of this situation, this paper puts forward the research question: what factors promote the rapid growth of the automobile ownership in Beijing? How does the rapid growth of car ownership affect traffic congestion in Beijing? The first part of the article discusses the whole situation of the rapid development of Beijing's automobile ownership, which is divided into two aspects: the course and present situation of the development of Beijing's automobile ownership, and the reasons for the rapid growth of Beijing's automobile ownership. By collecting a large number of relevant data, the quantitative factors affecting the car ownership in Beijing are quantitatively analyzed by factor analysis method. Combined with the result of quantitative analysis, and the qualitative analysis of the reasons for the rapid growth of automobile ownership, such as the policy of automobile industry, the development of automobile market and social factors (low cost of automobile use, imperfect public transportation), etc. The second part mainly analyzes the impact of the rapid growth of Beijing automobile ownership on urban traffic congestion, which can be divided into two aspects. On the one hand, the "tragedy of Commons" model is used to analyze the influence mechanism of vehicle ownership on urban traffic. The phenomenon of excessive use of cars by residents and overuse of road resources will occur, which will lead to road congestion and traffic accidents. Vehicle exhaust and other typical negative externalities. Frequent traffic accidents and difficult parking problems, in turn, will further aggravate the traffic congestion situation. The second part analyzes the impact of the rapid growth of vehicle ownership on traffic congestion. Using the specific data of vehicle ownership and urban roads, the paper analyzes that the contradiction between vehicle and road is the direct cause of traffic congestion. Taking Los Angeles as an example, this paper specifically analyzes the vicious circle contradiction between cars, roads, and traffic jams, and cautions that Beijing refuses to choose the sprawling urbanization road "according to the development of cars." The motorized city must shift from merely increasing the supply of urban roads to changing the structure of road demand and guiding residents from car travel to green transport modes such as buses bicycles and walking. It is suggested that the rapid development of automobile ownership in China should be restricted by means of economic leverage, macro-control and humanistic education, so as to provide a reasonable basis for solving traffic congestion.
【學位授予單位】：北京交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：D669.3

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本文編號：1930779